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March Rolling Obs/Banter


WxUSAF

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My Accuwx forecast is a bust. Sunny now. Was in Old Town this morning and it was nice. Not bad.

Pretty nice in DC right now. Might end up a cold mo but climo and our overall love of warmth tends to win when there isn't something anomalous going on.

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Cold front obviously didn't make it very far south. GFS looked like mid 30s all day as of yesterday, now it's mid 50s.

MOS was never that cold. Either way the euro schooled the GFS on this clipper.

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MOS was never that cold. Either way the euro schooled the GFS on this clipper.

Apparently it did.  I didn't see/here what Euro temps were.  A couple days ago DT showed a surface max temp map of GFS and Euro for today and both were in the upper 30s for DC/Balt. 

 

I have mixed feelings about MOS...helps on days like today when it runs to climo, but can bust hard in backdoor cold fronts and any sort of anomalous event. 

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Apparently it did.  I didn't see/here what Euro temps were.  A couple days ago DT showed a surface max temp map of GFS and Euro for today and both were in the upper 30s for DC/Balt. 

 

I have mixed feelings about MOS...helps on days like today when it runs to climo, but can bust hard in backdoor cold fronts and any sort of anomalous event. 

 

the gfs consistently brought it quite a bit further south. i know tue night the euro had temps around 60 today.. didn't look that close thereafter. mos or mos + knowledge of mos bias probably outperforms raw numbers most of the time.

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Went from 59 to 44

Hence the problem with all the bust call. Yeah temps were higher than forecast but don't think most ppl realize you can be mosty right and still look quite wrong

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Hence the problem with all the bust call. Yeah temps were higher than forecast but don't think most ppl realize you can be mosty right and still look quite wrong

We did mostly cloud cover today, but did have a bit of sun. No precip at all and temps went well over for a good portion of the day. It is March and this is what we get.

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Agree

it's really just salt in the wound. the real addicts want to keep tracking things that don't happen but seems like torture so far. well, at least till next week's hecs. ;)

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yeah sure

 

i'd much rather be torching at this point. if we get a hecs next week i'll still enjoy it but i kinda doubt we will imby at least so it's just prolonging this winter's agony.

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