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March Rolling Obs/Banter


WxUSAF

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I LOVE not living in boston. We get to be >60 in MARCH while they will be dealing with marine layer well into May!!

 

THIS is why I live in the SUBTROPICS. 

HAHA.. yeah, the Mid Atlantic's climate beats the hell outta Boston's crapfest climate....LOL

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DC is really nice. Glad I finally got around tp this day trip. Obama even rolled into the white house when I was getting there. Cool

Its a great city. And even nicer when you don't have to trudge through the snow and mud like they have to deal with up in New England this weekend...LOL

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I thought the euro handled this better there?

If you read the post storm (forecast fail) analysis from up there, the euro handled it better. Yeah the GFS sniffed out the precip getting up that way first, but beyond that not so great. Down here I would say it was a wash. Saw an article posted on CWG page about the forecast bust and the red flags etc, and the thought was the euro handled it better here as well. Sort of subjective as none of the models really nailed it. 

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It looked like the euro had less QPF which was red flag number one..at least on the 6/00z run. 

Since the snow was already falling (and radar looked amped) by the time that run came out, it was a little late for red flags.

 

Yeah, GFS did fail big in the short-term up your way, but did pretty well down here. 

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I still. Have a bit left as well.

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Forecast high this morning said 70...it hit 79 imby.

Wow....I thought you had typo'd, looked and all of western WV was in mid to upper 70's, crazy!

Hit 63 here yesterday, which was really nice. Funny walking in short sleeves and looking at snow

on the mountains, feels like you are in Rockies when this happens.

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Lake Moomaw north of Covington, VA just hit full pond at midnight and opened the spillway to 379 cfs, highest amount released since June last year minus the one day in early October when they did a pulse test. Nice to see the rain and snow fill it and the nearby creeks and rivers after the dry summer and fall we had. Snow melt from Bath and Highland counties has the Jackson River and Back Creek running higher, which feeds into the lake.

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Since the snow was already falling (and radar looked amped) by the time that run came out, it was a little late for red flags.

 

Yeah, GFS did fail big in the short-term up your way, but did pretty well down here. 

 

But even the runs before that showed the same..like 05/12z.

 

Euro also had 925mb temps near 0C. That's awfully mild if you are very borderline at the surface. I noticed the GFS also barely had 950 temps below 0C as well.

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But even the runs before that showed the same..like 05/12z.

Euro was quite consistent for the last few runs.  It was on the low-end of the model suite, but it had DCA a bit over 1" and BWI at .84" on the 05/12z run.  GFS was more, but not drastically so.  DCA around 1.25-1.5" and BWI around 1.1".  I went back and took a look in the model disco thread and someone posted that the 05/00z and 05/12z Euro had identical QPF amounts for Westminster, MD in both runs.  

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If this weekend taught me anything, it is that I love the seasonal transitions.  Well, most of them.

 

Summer to Fall - awesome.  A break from the relentless heat, anticipating the leaves turning, possible tropical events

Fall to Winter - awesome.  Watching the models for any hint of snow, enjoying the holidays, a roaring fireplace

Winter to Spring - awesome.  That first weekend with nice temps and the warm sun.  Flower starting to bloom.  Looking ahead to thunderstorm season.

Spring to Summer - no redeeming value.  Impending doom of three months hopping from air conditioned home to car to work.

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