March Rolling Obs/Banter

[WinterWxLuvr]

Feels like it's gonna be a big weed year in the yard....especially dandelions...lots of stuff popping up....need some more snow to cover it up

 

Interesting post.  I was just thinking about that this morning on the drive in to work.  We have nothing here.  No green anywhere, no daffodils, no dandelions, almost no wild onions.  A quick glance at the landscape and you'd swear it was the middle of January.  Last year I mowed about 3 times in March.  This year, I'll be surprised if we mow before the middle of April.

[Bob Chill]

Feels like it's gonna be a big weed year in the yard....especially dandelions...lots of stuff popping up....need some more snow to cover it up

 

I would be careful posting things like this on the internet unless you live in CO or WA. 

[Ian]

Interesting post.  I was just thinking about that this morning on the drive in to work.  We have nothing here.  No green anywhere, no daffodils, no dandelions, almost no wild onions.  A quick glance at the landscape and you'd swear it was the middle of January.  Last year I mowed about 3 times in March.  This year, I'll be surprised if we mow before the middle of April.

 

we have some early cherry trees in full bloom here for the last week or so. not many. lots of other littler trees are on the verge of popping. in about 2 weeks it'll look like spring i think.. even if it's cold.

[WxUSAF]

we have some early cherry trees in full bloom here for the last week or so. not many. lots of other littler trees are on the verge of popping. in about 2 weeks it'll look like spring i think.. even if it's cold.

Some maples are getting that barely "fuzzy" look up my way and some other trees (Bradford Pears and the like) are getting some buds, but for lots of trees (oaks, hickorys, etc...) it looks like January still.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

Some maples are getting that barely "fuzzy" look up my way and some other trees (Bradford Pears and the like) are getting some buds, but for lots of trees (oaks, hickorys, etc...) it looks like January still.  

I've noticed over the years that its much harder to "fool" the real hardwoods.  Sure, you can get them to come on out a little early, but they are pretty good at holding those buds in check and not letting them open.  I did see some sugar maples here with their red/maroon bud swelled up the other day.  Last year at this time the Bradford Pears had already started dropping their white flowers and were well on their way toward full leaf out.

[WinterWxLuvr]

we have some early cherry trees in full bloom here for the last week or so. not many. lots of other littler trees are on the verge of popping. in about 2 weeks it'll look like spring i think.. even if it's cold.

Yeah, if you get a 5 day or so stretch of real warmth this late, spring can explode in a hurry wrt flowers, flowering trees, and grasses.

[WxUSAF]

I've noticed over the years that its much harder to "fool" the real hardwoods.  Sure, you can get them to come on out a little early, but they are pretty good at holding those buds in check and not letting them open.  I did see some sugar maples here with their red/maroon bud swelled up the other day.  Last year at this time the Bradford Pears had already started dropping their white flowers and were well on their way toward full leaf out.

It's amazing how variable maples can be.  One red maple on my street is probably only a week or 10 days away from flowering...and the same tree shows fall color before any other.  The red maple in my front yard (not even 100 yards away and on the same side of the street) is barely showing anything.  Sugar maples aren't doing anything yet.  

 

Last year my next door neighbor's red maple got all excited by the early warmth in February and started to flower and then they all dropped after a cold snap and started over again in March.  But we're easily ~2-3 weeks behind last year in term's of leaf-out.  

[mattie g]

There are a lot of maples showing red buds at this point in my area, but not much has truly popped.  My peach tree has had pink buds for a couple weeks now, but they haven't swelled up much recently and luckily it hasn't blossomed at all yet.  We do have some daffodils and crocus, and I've seen the random hyacinth starting to shoot and show their first "juvenile" flower bunches.

 

What I can confirm is that my allergies have started.  I'm not allergic to much (food, medicine, etc.), but I get it pretty good in the spring.  It's not too bad yet, but I'll probably be freebasing Claritin once the maples really start blowing out.

[MN Transplant]

wasnt great cooling conditions given the air mass...we have had some more impressive mins this late in the last 15-20 years or so, some under inferior air masses

 

4/10/97 - 28 (record min)

4/8/07 - 29 (ties record min)

3/27/01 - 25

3/22/02 - 25

3/19/93 - 19

 

and a handful of other 27-29 readings

 

I thought I might have to go back further, but even '09 had a 28 on the 24th.

 

Edit - Even IAD with the shorter climo record was 13 degrees off of a record min

[nj2va]

It took March 5/6 for me to finally write off the NAM completely.  I didn't heed zwyts' advise til that bust.

[FrederickWX]

Average high temperatures are getting to the point where a -10 day is still plenty mild for trees and flowers.

[ACFD FIREMAN]

I have hated it since its inception...Now I may not know how to use it..If I don't I haven't figured it out yet..I don't know...If others get value from it for winter storms, then that is fine..I know even from its "range" i have seen it bust and bust badly over and over and over and over

Unfortunately it did pretty good w/ 2/10. That may have given it some weenie credence. It is a wretched model and I don't use it.

[isohume]

Hey if anyone has a link to a correct model, let me know. That'd be invaluable in my profession. Thanks. 

[nj2va]

Unfortunately it did pretty good w/ 2/10. That may have given it some weenie credence. It is a wretched model and I don't use it.

 

Yeah, I thought I remember it doing well then, IIRC.  After that, my weenie brain regarded it as a great model, til it busted on a lot of events. 

[isohume]

http://ecmwf.int/

 

nice straw man

 

Sorry, I've looked at that one countless times. 

 

nice diversion. 

[isohume]

again...nice straw man....saying one model is better than another, is not saying that the better model is a "correct" model...but I am sure you realize that...or maybe you don't, which would be really sad...The premise is that the NAM is a poor model...saying that no model is correct does not counter that argument...Is this line of thinking over your head?

 

Sorry again, operationally each model has it's own ups and downs as far as providing good guidance. The idea is to not modelcast for a specific verification. The idea is to forecast with a degree of confidence based on the known biases and strengths/limitations of each model. The idea is to know your forecast area and how specific weather variables interact with each other to produce the most likely sensible wx. Is this line of thinking over your head?   

[ACFD FIREMAN]

Sorry again, operationally each model has it's own ups and downs as far as providing good guidance. The idea is to not modelcast for a specific verification. The idea is to forecast with a degree of confidence based on the known biases and strengths/limitations of each model. The idea is to know your forecast area and how specific weather variables interact with each other to produce the most likely sensible wx. Is this line of thinking over your head?   

And the NAM still sucks according to your line of thinking.....

[isohume]

Agreed...so what strengths does the NAM bring to the table in winter storms for washington DC...

 

I don't forecast for that area. I'd imagine you should know. You live there. 

 

[ravensrule]

 

I don't forecast for that area. I'd imagine you should know. You live there. 

 

Lolz you are a terrible troll.

[wxmeddler]

Surprise snow shower made it over the mountians. Nothing sticking but its great to see dendrites again.

[Ellinwood]

I do know....none...As a forecaster you are going to do better in the means verifying for DC metro in the winter by pretending the NAM doesn't exist than by trying to use it for some limited purpose...at least in my experience...perhaps there are others who feel their forecasting has benefited by blending it

While not good during the "real" events in winter, the NAM can help pick out if lake-effect or lake-enhanced showers will make it over the mountains into the DC/MD/NoVA region. It's higher resolution and mesoscale strengths help it in that regard vs. the GFS, Euro, etc. It can also add value in some all-snow events where there are no temperature issues so long as you account for the QPF bias (by cutting it in half usually).

EDIT: And this is all usually within 48 hours of an event. I almost never rely on the NAM beyond 48 hours in winter.

[mattie g]

Lolz you are a terrible troll.

 

Why are you getting involved in a discussion that has nothing to do with you?

[isohume]

I do know....none...As a forecaster you are going to do better in the means verifying for DC metro in the winter by pretending the NAM doesn't exist than by trying to use it for some limited purpose...at least in my experience...perhaps there are others who feel their forecasting has benefited by blending it

 

Odd the NAM provides no useful guidance up there. It does here. It generally outperforms the other guidance across the mtns with gap and drainage flow leading to better temp fcsts. It usually is given more weight to lee side bndrys and weakening CAD TMBs, which enables a more focused depiction of cool season convection. The NAM has also way outperformed the GFS on numerous occasions wrt to the placement and degree mlvl frontogenesis along with the attendant isen lift leading to better mixed p/type fcsts. Mech lift and coupled omega is also sometimes better handled by the NAM depending on the depicted upper layered vort energy by the other models. There are other situations, but suffice to say the NAM provides value in the fcst process in my area.      

[Ian]

Strange how we are still having this oversimplified argument about the nam

[Ellinwood]

Also, forecasts aren't just snow and QPF during threats. Gotta think about all the other days in between where the NAM can also add value to a forecast (like when we get smacked by CAD/the marine layer and what-not).

[Ellinwood]

why not just use Euro QPF which is much better and needs less adjustment?

You can use the Euro QPF instead, but it's not just about the QPF. NAM can help pick out favorable banding areas that, while overdone on QPF, could indicate where the highest totals and sharp cut-offs will occur.

[ravensrule]

Why are you getting involved in a discussion that has nothing to do with you?

The same reason your annoying self does all the time.

[Ellinwood]

yeah...but the discussion is about snow and we know it overdoes CAD

My bad... I was trying to speed-read through the whole convo and missed that detail in your earlier post.

[isohume]

Also, forecasts aren't just snow and QPF during threats. Gotta think about all the other days in between where the NAM can also add value to a forecast (like when we get smacked by CAD/the marine layer and what-not).

 

True. I see a lot of focus on the QPF output of the models, which is the most complicated thing for a model to generate. It is no wonder the QPF changes from run to run and model to model. It's a measure of how all the variables and parameterizations interact and influence each other. If one variable changes, which is simplistic, the whole chain down the line modifies the QPF output. It's better to focus on what the models can handle a little better, like heights, kinematics, dynamics, and energy transfers. QPF is normally one of the last outputs I look at and it's never taken at face value.        

[Ellinwood]

it is pretty much awful with those too...primarily because it doesnt get the track correct and will swing wildly from run to run even inside its range...It isn't just weenies who use it...The NAM/SREFS has had a significant role in LWX and other media busts ....12/26/10, 10/29/11, 3/6/13 are just a few examples...12/26 in particular as a good example of the cutoff...the NAM and pretty much every SREF member was giving us ~0.75 QPF on the precipice of the storm causing LWX to issue WSW's...it completely folded at the end but it was too late...It isn't just us..professional forecasters are getting suckered by it regularly...if mets don't know how to use it in the winter, perhaps it shouldnt be blended at all

Whenever I see sharp cut-offs on the NAM, I take into account the fact that there probably will be a sharp cut-off somewhere, and not on exactly where the NAM has placed it. Sometimes with the marginal temp issues the GFS and Euro may not pick up such a defined gradient. It's up to interpreting that data along with where you think the actual track will end up that can help add some detail to the overall outlook.