Allsnow Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Hr 126 light rain for us. Clipper goes way north. A lot of cold air coming behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Hr 144 over running from va to Kansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Hr 144 over running from va to Kansas what does H5 look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Hr 156 over running stays south of us. For dca area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Hr 156 DCA getting into the over running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 what does H5 look like? Blocking seems more east based this run. This might allow our storm to cut west. This is all early speculation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Hr 168 it's not going to slip under block. It's going to cut west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Yep goes into the lakes this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Hr 174 surface low over extreme western KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Yep goes into the lakes this run. Sounds almost identical to the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Hr 168 it's not going to slip under block. It's going to cut west i think this would wind up being a Miller B, no? It cant get too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 It cuts off over Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Some light precip getting into the area at hr 180. NW burbs are below freezing. Everyone else is above freezing. By hour 186 rain storm incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 April 19th, 1983 there was a winter storm warning for nyc we got about 3-4 inches Budd Lake in NJ got 8 inches, latest on record that NYC had a WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Sounds almost identical to the GFS? Whats the difference its a week away and its not going to bump into the block. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Still 180 out. A lot of potential next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Well it's not surprising for models to bounce around this far out, the setup is still nice and for some reasons models love to cut storms into the lakes in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Whats the difference its a week away and its not going to bump into the block. Rossi The block is more east base this run, so it can do that verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Hours 186-192 signs of a secondary forming over the Delmarva. Eventually pops at hour 198 to our north. Solid rain storm this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 The MJO is passing through Phase 7 into 8 right around the time that the storm is entering the plains. Phase 7 can allow the SE Ridge to kick up just enough for a more westerly track. A couple of days later into 8 the SE Ridge wouldn't be a factor. Talk about a solution right on the razors edge. Hopefully later runs can have more west blocking to suppress the SE Ridge. Would not like to lose a great snowstorm threat with all the blocking by just a day or two of 500 mb difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 And greater than 4 inches never happened In the first week of November. Oh and nothing more than an inch and a half or so had ever fallen in October for the entire month. Tell that to oct 2011 and nov 2012 we did see a half inch in October 1952 and 2" in early November 1953...It wasn't at this yea'rs level but it's happened before around the area...Early October 1987 had a big wet snow event in upstate NY and snow and ice on November 11th...A major storm for the DC area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Not that they are worth much but the 12z Canadian Ensembles are a solid hit with the over running event. Way north of the 12z Euro OP. The main event heads towards the lakes and then eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 WPC going with .50 - .75 for 3/17 -3/19 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Not that they are worth much but the 12z Canadian Ensembles are a solid hit with the over running event. Way north of the 12z Euro OP. The main event heads towards the lakes and then eastward. Not suprised given that the GGEM operational was a big hit as well, north of even the GFS. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Per the New England Forum, Euro ensemble pops a secondary south of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Euro Ensembles - secondary developing off NJ coast - surface will still be too warm with this at first http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS192.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 This late in the year a secondary will not do much for us. We need this storm to shoot under the block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 secondary would work if it stalls out because of the block and draws in the colder air which is nearby and another norlun develops but who wants to be in the bullseye 8 days out - things will change ..............same thing happened with the EURO last storm the first runs showing the storm had a bomb on the coast similar to this coming event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 This is the strongest 7 day blocking signal of the season so far with +400 meter anomalies in the ensemble mean. We just need a little more help in the PNA department to flatten out the SE Ridge a bit more. 12z 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 SE ridge is way too overpowering and could very well be the downfall to all of these threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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