CheesyPoofs Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 No, just for vacation and going to see the Nationals play a spring ball game up in Viera. Oh ok, cool. Hopefully the Euro verifies but your plans don't get impacted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 I just read my post and it had a ton of typos lol I'm on my iPhone apologize in advance guys damn autocorrect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Oh ok, cool. Hopefully the Euro verifies but your plans don't get impacted Thanks! Just keep LGA mostly rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Thanks! Just keep LGA mostly rain! You're flying out of La Guardia, feel bad for you already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 It's no surprise that a significant snowfall past mid March is very rare and unlikely but we are in a different era than in the past. In the past there was more global atmospheric stability with actual storm of the century events that are supposed to occur once or twice in a century, but now we are in a time of extremes. I don't think we should consider late oct snow, big early nov snow, two hurricanes/tropical storms back to back as all being flukes. Not to mention the historical snowfalls from 09-10 and 10-11. These are not flukes anymore, this could be commonplace now so a major storm in latter March wouldn't surprise me as much as it normally would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 I think this could be the first time in all of our lifetimes that it seems to be open game for snow MORE than half of the year ? (October to April) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 All the time - just think back to all of storms - The GFS is always behind the Euro. Rossi true but we have to wait and see if the EURO is for real this time around need a few more runs in a row to determine - if it still shows the east coast storm within 156 - 168 hours then its time to get serious - also time to change the title on this thread - or create a new thread for next weeks threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 The 12z GFS is now handling the 16-17th wave and PV more like the 0z Euro . We'll see if this results, in bigger storm for the 19-20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 The 12z GFS is now handling the 16-17th wave and PV more like the 0z Euro . We'll see if this results, in bigger storm for the 19-20th. True....there are big changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Gfs with a solid over running event for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Yup, dont know if the GFS will have the monster coastal, but nice overunning event on Day 7 (Monday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Given the PV in SE Canada, I would think the depiction would be more south than the gfs but it made huge changes to get close to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Yup, dont know if the GFS will have the monster coastal, but nice overunning event on Day 7 (Monday)looks good in most of the metro too closer to the surface BUT just like the EURO with the coastal have to see if this shows up several runs in a rowhttp://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfspmsl10mwinds2mtemps168.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Nice, solid advisory event for most next monday on the GFS(probably would be 4" NYC and south, but it's .25"+ region wide.) -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Details not important, but huge move towards the EURO generel set-up at that time frame by the GFS. And verbatim does snow accumulating snow for the entire metro at this point w/ the overunning front wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 All I have to say at this point is that the 12z GFS was a very nice step toward the ECMWF. Lets just hope that things stay consistent with the euro for the next five or six days Sent from Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 PaZzo brings up some good stats, it does get increasingly unlikely for a decent accumulating snowfall after march 15. That being said the pattern being shown by the gefs and euro screams major potential for a late season bomb, you often don't see this setup this late in the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 And greater than 4 inches never happened In the first week of November. Oh and nothing more than an inch and a half or so had ever fallen in October for the entire month. Tell that to oct 2011 and nov 2012 Prior to 1869, there was a case where 6"-8" fell in NYC on November 1-2, 1810. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 If this was 1982 , we would be a month away from a potential snowstorm , not a week. Imagine those odds . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Individually given Pazzos states, it's a 10% chance of a significant march snow after 3mod month every yr. it is this 90% that if wont happen. So if we use this as our basic probabilities, the odds of 6 straight years of no significant post mid march snow would be a cumulative probability of every single year's odds. Given this, the odds of there not being a post mid march significant snow for a 6th yr in a row would be (0.9x0.9x0.9x0.9x0.9x0.9) or 53.1%. Yep, now if we look from 3/20 on, there have been 3 occurrences of post 3/20 snow >= 5" since 1960: 3/22/1967: 9" 4/6/1982: 9.6" 3/22/1998: 5" This appears to be an approx one in 15 year event, so probability in any given year is 6.67%, or a 93.33% chance of not occurring. Given that the last occurrence was in 1998, we have the prob of it not occurring for 15 straight years (e.g. it doesn't happen this year) as 0.9333^15 or 0.355, 35.5%. I guess it does look like we're due... Wrong - these are independent events, i.e., whether we get snow in mid/late March in any one year, does not affect the probability of getting it any other year, so if the probability of getting it any single year is 6.7%, well then, that's the probability this year, regardless of what happened the past 10 years, i.e., we're not any more "due" that we are any other year. It's like flipping a coin, which is also an independent event. While the probability of getting tails 5 times in a row (before one starts flipping coins) is 1/32 (1/2 to the 5th power), if one gets tails 5 times in a row, the probability of getting tails on the 6th throw is still just 1/2, not some very small number. The past has no bearing on each event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 If this was 1982 , we would be a month away from a potential snowstorm , not a week. Imagine those odds . what a beautiful storm that was. I remember WINS accuweather forcaster getting on air..pausing and then saying' no April Fool's joke but a life threatening blizzard is on it way to NYC' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 GGEM looks intrested with the overrunning event, according to SNE forum it brings round two north and gives warning snows to NNE, but we do well on the first round. Would be nice if both Stamford and Lake Placid could get a nice snowfall. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 any news on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 any news on the euro? Not out until 2pm now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Not out until 2pm now Freakin' time change is brutal for model watchers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Freakin' time change is brutal for model watchers... During the day it fits my schedule better at work/gym etc. The night time change is brutal, although it makes for a good read over coffee in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 During the day it fits my schedule better at work/gym etc. The night time change is brutal, although it makes for a good read over coffee in the morning my days of following 2 am models are over....can just check it out in the am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Hr 114 pv just north of lakes. Great spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 my days of following 2 am models are over....can just check it out in the am Same here. No need to do that anymore, life gets in the way more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Hr 120 clipper over Cleveland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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