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March Medium Range Discussion


nzucker

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Looks like it wants to dive the PV in at Day 10.

 

It has overrunning around DC around 198 and then a coastal/miller B threat at day 10 with a nice pna spike and big NAO. The mega block also shows no signs of going anywhere as another wave enters the west coast. It looks like a weenie pattern to me

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0z GFS pours on the cold.

 

Some areas in the suburbs may struggle to get much above freezing on Thursday with lake effect streamers in the vicinity, brisk NW flow, and 850s around -14C:

post-475-0-25392700-1362894391_thumb.gif

 

A major overrunning system lurks to the south on Sunday with -20C 850s just to our north in Upstate NY:

post-475-0-36490400-1362894456_thumb.gif

 

Colder than normal weather continues in the fantasy range as a coastal throws back some moisture, probably snow:

post-475-0-85866900-1362894556_thumb.gif

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this the clipper from '04 you talkin bout ?

 

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2004/15-Jan-04-SurfaceMaps.html

 

 

That is the one I'm talking about, yes. And the 500mb pattern actually isn't that far off! But it's all about getting a potent shortwave to rotate south of the PV, and to have the PV south enough.

 

I agree with Weathergun that the threat for a bigger event comes a few days after that. 

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i miss a really great sleet storm....they are one of a kind. as bad as 93 stunk for not staying all snow, it made up for it with amazing sleet totals.

 

the medium range signals are porn on ecmf....the gfs has the blocking and 50/50 but it does some funky stuff with the wave, basically shoving N into central canada from the midwest lol. as if its saying the block is so strong it cant even get the wave anywhere close to it. and that then essentially blows the block up so the next southern wave behind it is really warm sliding across the deep south.

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i miss a really great sleet storm....they are one of a kind. as bad as 93 stunk for not staying all snow, it made up for it with amazing sleet totals.

 

the medium range signals are porn on ecmf....the gfs has the blocking and 50/50 but it does some funky stuff with the wave, basically shoving N into central canada from the midwest lol. as if its saying the block is so strong it cant even get the wave anywhere close to it. and that then essentially blows the block up so the next southern wave behind it is really warm sliding across the deep south.

 

The Euro is out-performing the GFS in the 8-10 day range by quite a bit right now.

post-1914-0-62281000-1362943527_thumb.pn

post-1914-0-25749700-1362943528_thumb.pn

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How are temps on the ECM ENS?

 

They are colder, but that might be because the mean doesn't cut the storm off over the SE. Not sure yet if the same thing

will apply here as when the Euro OP was off the SE Coast initially for this weeks storm while the ens were a little more north. The mean is going to be less amped at this range, but the OP sometimes digs closed lows too much at

192-240. Tough to know if this will be case with this storm or not.

 

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