CooL Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 Euro days 6-10 and beyond looks like a classic february pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 Euro days 6-10 and beyond looks like a classic february pattern does it have the storm for next thursday/friday? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 9, 2013 Author Share Posted March 9, 2013 Euro days 6-10 and beyond looks like a classic february pattern Looks like it wants to dive the PV in at Day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 Looks like it wants to dive the PV in at Day 10. It has overrunning around DC around 198 and then a coastal/miller B threat at day 10 with a nice pna spike and big NAO. The mega block also shows no signs of going anywhere as another wave enters the west coast. It looks like a weenie pattern to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 10, 2013 Author Share Posted March 10, 2013 0z GFS pours on the cold. Some areas in the suburbs may struggle to get much above freezing on Thursday with lake effect streamers in the vicinity, brisk NW flow, and 850s around -14C: A major overrunning system lurks to the south on Sunday with -20C 850s just to our north in Upstate NY: Colder than normal weather continues in the fantasy range as a coastal throws back some moisture, probably snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 this the clipper from '04 you talkin bout ? http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2004/15-Jan-04-SurfaceMaps.html That is the one I'm talking about, yes. And the 500mb pattern actually isn't that far off! But it's all about getting a potent shortwave to rotate south of the PV, and to have the PV south enough. I agree with Weathergun that the threat for a bigger event comes a few days after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 It's always impressive when the PV drops down into SE Canada or Northern New England in mid-March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 The Euro has a borderline overrunning event at Day 6-7 and then what looks like a MECS setup beyond it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 The Euro shows a borderline overrunning event at day 7. But it's really cooking up something big a couple of days after that, as the block really flexes its muscles and we get a ridge spike out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 ^you guys can delete this, but those 2 posts back to back cracked me up. Thanks again for doing what you do for this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Yes, a big one is brewing at 204 hrs. on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 H5 trough is digging to the Gulf of Mexico at 204 hours with a 50/50 low, block, and plenty of cold air north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 ^you guys can delete this, but those 2 posts back to back cracked me up. Thanks again for doing what you do for this subforum. We only delete posts that say we suck, this one is fine. (kidding, i know someone will probably report this and blow up my email inbox). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Huge snowstorm incoming day 10. Woof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Sub 990mb low sitting over the Eastern Carolinas at 210 hours. Details don't matter...huge signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Great Greenland block, 50/50 low, huge shortwave rounding the base and neutrally tilted at the Mississippi Valley, along with a ridge spike out west. Total weenie setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 We might get another cutoff bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Wet snow bomb at 228 hours...but as I said earlier the setup speaks volumes and the details are nearly irrelevant at this point. If the Euro has the setup right at 120 hours...we'll be tracking the potential for a huge late season snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 March 1993 type track lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Very strong coastal system on the 12z ECMWF. Light years out, but not much else to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Looks like February 1958. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 March 1993 type track lol Lol not even close. This run doesn't have a low forming in the GOM and it doesn't wind up in NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Not a true miller A but it hugs the nj coast. Just throwing some stuff out there. Late season storm and Appalachians look to get heavy snow and Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 i miss a really great sleet storm....they are one of a kind. as bad as 93 stunk for not staying all snow, it made up for it with amazing sleet totals. the medium range signals are porn on ecmf....the gfs has the blocking and 50/50 but it does some funky stuff with the wave, basically shoving N into central canada from the midwest lol. as if its saying the block is so strong it cant even get the wave anywhere close to it. and that then essentially blows the block up so the next southern wave behind it is really warm sliding across the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 i miss a really great sleet storm....they are one of a kind. as bad as 93 stunk for not staying all snow, it made up for it with amazing sleet totals. the medium range signals are porn on ecmf....the gfs has the blocking and 50/50 but it does some funky stuff with the wave, basically shoving N into central canada from the midwest lol. as if its saying the block is so strong it cant even get the wave anywhere close to it. and that then essentially blows the block up so the next southern wave behind it is really warm sliding across the deep south. The Euro is out-performing the GFS in the 8-10 day range by quite a bit right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 The Euro is out-performing the GFS in the 8-10 day range by quite a bit right now. for sure....i think it is still tops in this range as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Good to see the Euro ensembles with the storm signal also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 We only delete posts that say we suck, this one is fine. (kidding, i know someone will probably report this and blow up my email inbox). ROTHFLMAO, EURO has a huge signal indeed. Would be impressive if March could be our snowiest month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 10, 2013 Author Share Posted March 10, 2013 Good to see the Euro ensembles with the storm signal also. MSLP_North32America_216.gif How are temps on the ECM ENS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 How are temps on the ECM ENS? They are colder, but that might be because the mean doesn't cut the storm off over the SE. Not sure yet if the same thing will apply here as when the Euro OP was off the SE Coast initially for this weeks storm while the ens were a little more north. The mean is going to be less amped at this range, but the OP sometimes digs closed lows too much at 192-240. Tough to know if this will be case with this storm or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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