earthlight Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 The Euro ensembles have a really interesting signal post 200 hours. The block retrogrades and then drops into Central Canada, while Pac NW vort is moving through the Central US. This almost forces the elongated upper level low over Southeast Canada to phase into the Central US vort. On the Euro ensembles this occurs a little farther east, but the entire pattern looks like it might support a huge storm around that time frame. You can see something similar occurring towards the end of the 12z Canadian. Look how the upper level low moved westward from Southeast Canada and is now positioning itself to interact with the Central US vort. The Canadian actually takes this really far west and drops it in over the Plains. I think that is pretty unlikely...but just throwing out some ideas as we move forward. The Euro ensembles really got my interest from 180-220 hours. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/f168.gif Displayed visually...here's what happens when the upper level low retrogrades under the block and the Central US shortwave travels underneath it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 ...and following along the script, the 18z GFS is retrograding the ULL and dropping it into the Central US trough like a few of us were talking about. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_18z/f168.gif I think it's too early though. The PNA ridge is still mostly out in Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 The ull really killed everything last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Surprised that there weren't any posts about the Overrunning precip on most models last night. The trends last night have cooled the thermal profiles quite considerably, and there seems to be a growing consensus for a period of moderate to heavy snow before it changes over to rain. The 6z GFS illustrates this point nicely, showing the 850 temperatures pretty far south while precipitation is breaking across New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Euro snowmap shows NYC close to the 3 inch contour with more snow just to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Euro snowmap shows NYC close to the 3 inch contour with more snow just to the north.and the gfs gives us nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 and the gfs gives us nothing Besides the accumulating snow, yeah not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 and the gfs gives us nothing Yes it does. Look above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Yes it does. Look above. 850mb temps don't support accumulating snow. Surface winds are already out the east when precip arrives in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Ull kills first threat again on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 The RGEM has a pretty favorable look with the overrunning precipitation.. especially for NW areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 ugh ull is the worse possible spot for this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 a: I never use model snow maps b: that map includes today's snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 ugh ull is the worse possible spot for this run The good news, is that if it's in the worst possible spot now, then it can only improve from there on out, since the positioning of the ULL is bound to change, as changes in the positioning of synoptic features occur when we get closer to that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 I'm interested in seeing what happens post 174 hours as the block splits and retrogrades into North-Central Canada. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/f168.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 The good news, is that if it's in the worst possible spot now, then it can only improve from there on out, since the positioning of the ULL is bound to change, as changes in the positioning of synoptic features occur when we get closer to that event. Agree. I just hate the suppresive look on all the models the last few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 The GGEM is pretty cold. It even gets NYC in on a front end snow thump before a changeover to ice and rain occurs. Pretty Nice hit for Northern NJ into Southeast NY and pretty much all of the suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 going to suck if this pattern plays out like march 2006. 2nd threat way ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 It seems, that atleast for the suburbs, consensus is developing on a few inches as a front end thump monday night before it goes over to rain. I think it's a decent chance that we can see an advisory level snowfall in the suburbs before it goes over to rain, the GFS has around 4" here, and the EURO similar. The GGEM 12z isn't out yet on meteocentre, but, according to p-type maps posted, I would guess it's atleast a couple of inches, RGEM seems similar through 48. Another thing to keep in mind is that this system has been trending colder, and, the seasonal trend this year has been for everything to trend colder in the short term and verify slightly colder than modeled(Both the blizzard and the 3-8 event were supposed to go over to rain for a time here even at go time, neither of them did, and at 72 hours out the blizzard was rain all day, we ended up with 6" before dark here.) -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermd Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Maybe reading it wrong but Euro also seems good front end Strange how little interest there seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Yeah anyone with EURO maps, from NE thread got much colder and is ALL SNOW from about CT/MA border north to the coast. I would infer a good front end dump down here maybe simialr to GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Maybe reading it wrong but Euro also seems good front end Strange how little interest there seems You're not reading it wrong. It's colder than the 0z run. A pretty solid front end dump by the looks of it for Northern NJ into the NW Burbs. Looks like snywx is all snow this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 EURO colder than 0z which already gave 3" here, probably advisory on this run. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 How much QPF is frozen for NYC/NJ north of 78 on the EURO, anyone have snow maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 How much QPF is frozen for NYC/NJ north of 78 on the EURO, anyone have snow maps? I would say over 0.5" is frozen for route 78 on the Euro. More north, and less south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 I would say over 0.5" is frozen north of route 78 on the Euro. More north, and less south. .5"? Wow, that's a pretty substantial increase for here, 4-6" would be awsome at this point. I thnik more important than the actual amounts is the trend, it's gone from nothing to intresting fairly quickly, and hopefully will continue to go in the intresting direction. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Euro looks weaker with ull hr 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 .5"? Wow, that's a pretty substantial increase for here, 4-6" would be awsome at this point. I thnik more important than the actual amounts is the trend, it's gone from nothing to intresting fairly quickly, and hopefully will continue to go in the intresting direction. -skisheep Yeah, any further cold ticks and this is all snow for you. Very very close as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Yeah, any further cold ticks and this is all snow for you. Very very close as of now. That would be totally awsome, I was expecting a slushy inch from this 48 hours ago, so to get another suprise would really make this winter for me. I doubt it's all snow, but I think the possiblity of a warning event can't be ruled out after this EURO. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Could be a good front end thump based on good timing and initially cold 850's. wouldn't be surprised if areas pick up 2-4 before changing to rain. Places north of 287 could be mostly snow. Northern westchester looks like its all frozen on the euro. Lets see if we keep trending slight colder still a lot of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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