March Medium Range Discussion

[Kaner587]

What time period, Sunday night into Monday?

The euro initially had the overrunning falling mostly at night. Today's 12z has it falling during the day but mostly with temps at or below freezing for everyone north of I-78 and north shore of LI. Basically it wouldn't accumulate more than a slushy inch or two in the city bc of crappy rates and daylight, but for the burbs they could definitely see 3-5 inches in this set up. The set up is subject to change so nothing is set in stone

[IsentropicLift]

I think many on here would appreciate that if you were going to make those estimations, you include that it's an estimate. By stating it as fact, you make it very confusing for many, and as a result we get conflicting information. I've also noticed that Stormvista is inaccurate with QPF, in both of the major storms that we had this winter(2-8 and 3-7/8), QPF info from Stormvista has been different from the actual text output of the model...

-skisheep

when you look at the individual panels and add them up it looks fairly close to what I estimated before. It's always going to be an estimate. Plus it's a 6 day forecast. I would hope nobody is taking it verbatim.

[MJO812]

is that ratio 10 raindrops to 1 snow flake ? Unfortunately both Upton and Mount Holly see mainly rain for the metro they even mention the usual snow at night and rain during the day all the way out in the Mt. Holly PA zones ..............

 

http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html

 

http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KPHI.html

 

Have you seen the Euro? Some accumulating snow with temps in the upper 20's to low 30's.

[IsentropicLift]

What time period, Sunday night into Monday?

If you go back and look I broke down the actual times exactly. Quite a bit does fall after 18z.

[CooL]

Euro verbatim is not 6"+ for anyone

 

More like 2-4" which is fantastic because we are at or under 32 for the event during the daytime

[Kaner587]

Neg NAO were talking about a depiction on a model. In this case on the euro, the solution is snow, all snow, with temps for many at or below freezing. This isn't my opinion, it is fact based on soundings. Whether or not its right, and whether upton and mt holly agree are separate entities.

[MJO812]

CPC has cooler than normal temps for the 8-14th day period

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/

[IsentropicLift]

Any word on the 18z GFS? I'm guessing it wasn't good?

[SR Airglow]

Any word on the 18z GFS? I'm guessing it wasn't good?

Still way south and supressed.

-skisheep

[weatherbear5]

Well, if there's one thing you can say about the GFS, there's no shortage of energy or vorts or anything...

[Max]

The 0z NAVGEM shifted pretty far SE compared to its 12z run. Hopefully that's a sign to the 0z Euro coming up with something good tonight.

[jconsor]

If we're going to see a mostly snow event for early next week without lots of heavy rain afterward, it would probably have to evolve similar to what the 0Z UKMET is showing w/strong confluence holding in over E Canada and the shortwave amplifying more gradually/digging further south toward the central Appalachians/mid-Atlantic.

[MJO812]

It looks like the Euro lost the overrunning event.

[KingofQueens]

Did the low stall at 144-168 on the Euro?

[Max]

April 7th, 1982 is now showing up on the cips analogs page. That was a nice miller b for the area. I wouldn't mind seeing a repeat.

[CooL]

The euro is now much faster with the block for the 20th storm, any faster and that becomes a threat again..But this run just crushes northern new england

[easternsnowman]

 

It looks like the Euro lost the overrunning event.

 The euro has been so consistent of late!

[bluewave]

Anytime you see a 500 m blocking anomaly showing up to our north, there is potential for the 

models to drift a little further south with the track of the low in coming days. That would represent

the strongest anomaly of the whole season so far and possibly since the winter of 2011. We saw

last week how the first low got suppressed and the second event trended south from the model

runs about a day before. A little more southerly development of the low in the Plains would

also help out with a little further south track. This would probably be more of a benefit to 

New England since we would still end up very close to the track of the low.

 

[MJO812]

Light flurries right now

[Weathergun]

We need better timing. Not only with the block retrograde. But also with the 500mb height rises over the West Coast. The trough goes negative too early for us.

 

Anytime you see a 500 m blocking anomaly showing up to our north, there is potential for the 

models to drift a little further south with the track of the low in coming days. That would represent

the strongest anomaly of the whole season so far and possibly since the winter of 2011. We saw

last week how the first low got suppressed and the second event trended south from the model

runs about a day before. A little more southerly development of the low in the Plains would

also help out with a little further south track. This would probably be more of a benefit to 

New England since we would still end up very close to the track of the low.

 

00zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNA120.gif

 

[SnoSki14]

I think we might be done with any substantial snow threats, the clipper looks like a nonevent, a few sprinkles or flurries tops, the overrunning is gone, the storm after is now likely to cut well to our west, could actually see a very warm day or two prior to the passage of the storm if the 06 gfs is right.

And then it's up in the air but it looks like the blocking starts to break down gradually in a week or so. We will see several days of negative departures though, which will make this March much different than last year.

[CooL]

I think we might be done with any substantial snow threats, the clipper looks like a nonevent, a few sprinkles or flurries tops, the overrunning is gone, the storm after is now likely to cut well to our west, could actually see a very warm day or two prior to the passage of the storm if the 06 gfs is right.

And then it's up in the air but it looks like the blocking starts to break down gradually in a week or so. We will see several days of negative departures though, which will make this March much different than last year.

The blocking isn't breaking down anytime soon. The cutter next week is going to reinforce the blocking into a better position which will most likely lead to an east coast storm around the 23-25. Lets just hope temps are cold enough

[pazzo83]

The blocking isn't breaking down anytime soon. The cutter next week is going to reinforce the blocking into a better position which will most likely lead to an east coast storm around the 23-25. Lets just hope temps are cold enough

 

Meaningful (>5") snowfall in NYC after March 20th is basically a one in 30 to one in 40 year event.  I wouldn't bank on it.

[WintersGrasp]

Maybe someone could explain it better but....there's been a lot of talk about big snow threats mid to late march....I just don't see any threats on the models at all. Short of maybe a few snowflakes mixing in with some drizzle here and there, what am I missing ? Lol

[SnoSki14]

Maybe someone could explain it better but....there's been a lot of talk about big snow threats mid to late march....I just don't see any threats on the models at all. Short of maybe a few snowflakes mixing in with some drizzle here and there, what am I missing ? Lol

 

It's basically gone now, the storm that was originally shown to be a big storm on the Euro has turned into a cutter due to a displaced block and the remnants of SE ridging. The clipper is too weak and the overrunning is too far south and weak. 

 

However with the MJO going into Phase 8-1 and the blocking still holding along with a vast amount of cold air for mid March still remaining, you can't completely discount the possibility of some snow although it's still rather unlikely. 

[uncle W]

However with the MJO going into Phase 8-1 and the blocking still holding along with a vast amount of cold air for mid March still remaining, you can't completely discount the possibility of some snow although it's still rather unlikely. 

I feel the same way about this...The blocking is still forecast to get stronger but it's getting weaker...it better start soon unless you like warm weather...

[IsentropicLift]

The chances of getting accumulating snows in this area are dropping dramatically by the day. With the event last Thursday-Friday it snowed for over 36 hours straight and amounted to only a couple inches which was completely gone by Sunday afternoon.

 

Just to update on the 12z NAM, it's scattered flurries/showers at best with the clipper and way south with the over running. So far south that even DC misses out.

[Allsnow]

The chances of getting accumulating snows in this area are dropping dramatically by the day. With the event last Thursday-Friday it snowed for over 36 hours straight and amounted to only a couple inches which was completely gone by Sunday afternoon.

Just to update on the 12z NAM, it's scattered flurries/showers at best with the clipper and way south with the over running. So far south that even DC misses out.

What we got last week is a typical march snow. If you expect snow pack and covered roadways in march, you will have better luck just waiting until December.

And please it's the nam at 84 hrs stop

[donsutherland1]

A quick point on the blocking. With the AO having risen further to -0.737 from yesterday's -1.039, there might be some worry that the blocking is not redeveloping as forecast. The forecast continues to call for a dramatic restrengthening of the blocking. The idea of weakening until today or perhaps tomorrow was forecast by the ensembles. It is not an unexpected development.

 

[Kaner587]

The only ones hallucinating are those saying winter is over. Will we have another snow event? Who knows, and of course it is unlikely as it is already mid march. But this march it is a whole lot

more likely than an "average" march. And btw those saying people that there are no threats, they tend to be the same people who naysay every event and some who have already called winter off.