uncle W Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 From a big picture view, both the 0z ECMWF and 6z GFS are really exciting for the NYC area. First, if the blocking develops as forecast, the magnitude of blocking would be historic for the second half of March. For the second day in a row, a number of ensemble members forecast the AO to drop to between -5 and -4. The lowest figure on record for the March 16-31 timeframe is -4.202, which was achieved on 3/24/2001. Once the blocking becomes severe, any storminess could create at least some opportunities for snowfall. Second, the current blocking is not severe at present. The AO is presently at -1.039. Until the blocking becomes severe, which likely won't occur until just after 3/20, there will be opportunities for systems to cut. The system early next week is a prime example and the idea of its cutting is not unreasonable. A late-week system would have greater difficulty cutting.and the probability of a coastal storm or coastal redevelopment would be greater. Third, even as the modeling currently stands, both the 0z ECMWF and 6z GFS point to at least two occasions in which snow could accumulate in NYC. Multiple accumulations of snow after 3/15 have not been common in recent years. The two most recent cases were: 1996: March 28-29 4.1" and April 9-10 0.7" (much more fell on Long Island) 2000: March 17 0.4" and April 9 1.2" The last time NYC had accumulating snow after March 15 was March 24, 2011 (1.0"). The last moderate or larger snowstorm (4" or more) after March 15 occurred on March 16, 2007 when 5.5" fell. In short, this is an exciting pattern as currently modeled. It is also a dramatic contrast with what we saw last year at this timeframe en route to the nation's experiencing its warmest March on record. great post Don...March 29th is the last date on the calendar that had multiple snowstorms...April 5-9 is another period that produced some late season snowfalls... March 29th.............. 1.1"... 28-29th, 1959...was snow and sleet for my tenth birthday...I remember it well... 3.0"... 1885... 4.1"... 28-29th 1996...started as wet snow...changed to rain/sleet...Changed back to heavy wet snow... 3.3"... 28-29th 1984...major storm...started as wet snow...changed to rain and sleet...back to snow and sleet...ends as mix...26" in the Poconos... 3.2"... 1974...Starts as rain...changed to snow in the afternoon...ended as rain...10" in the Poconos... 4.0"... 1970...Started as rain...Changed to snow in the afternoon...Got very cold at the end of the storm... April 5-9th......... 4.0"...4/7/2003...7" on Staten Island...stayed cold after the storm... 9.6"...4/6/1982...13" in the Poconos...record cold followed... 4.2"...4/8/1956...started as heavy rain... 6.5"...4/5/1944 6.4"...4/7/1938 6.5"...4/9/1917 5.0"...4/9/1907 If the AO falls to record levels later this month it will snow or get cold for the season...2001 had a little snow and one last cold spell when the ao was that low...i expect at least that this year if the stronger blocking develops... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 The April following the chilly 2001 March (avg temp of 39F compared to 40F so far this month) was nice and warm. I can take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 The 12z NAM has some decent stuff making it into the area from the clipper. 0.10-0.25" for northern NJ. Less south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 About 7 years ago or so....I clearly remember that in April (the 15th maybe?), here in NNJ we received 4-5" of snow in mid afternoon! Anyone remember that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 How about April 19th, 1983 we had winter storm warnings posted for NYC, the latest on record and we actually got a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 The 12z NAM has some decent stuff making it into the area from the clipper. 0.10-0.25" for northern NJ. Less south and east. Surface temperatures are in the upper 30s to lower 40s for most of that over most of the area. And we need intensity at this time of year to get snow. We may have more significant snow coming, but I doubt that this is it. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Surface temperatures are in the upper 30s to lower 40s for most of that over most of the area. And we need intensity at this time of year to get snow. We may have more significant snow coming, but I doubt that this is it. WX/PT I'm not enthusiasic about it either, was just pointing it out. Clippers never favor this area, wouldn't be surprised to see this fizzle out to nothing more than sprinkles as time goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 About 7 years ago or so....I clearly remember that in April (the 15th maybe?), here in NNJ we received 4-5" of snow in mid afternoon! Anyone remember that? April 7, 2003 is the one I remember. Many areas had over half a foot of snow and it fell during the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCsnow17 Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 About 7 years ago or so....I clearly remember that in April (the 15th maybe?), here in NNJ we received 4-5" of snow in mid afternoon! Anyone remember that? Was this snow from an ull? I clearly remember several inches of snow falling around this date too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 The gfs is starting to show the overrunning event, that one could be significant with a lot of cold air available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 The gfs is starting to show the overrunning event, that one could be significant with a lot of cold air available. It looks nothing like the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 It looks nothing like the Euro It will get there, unless the euro is wrong that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 The gfs is starting to show the overrunning event, that one could be significant with a lot of cold air available. have to wait and see if the EURO has it more north overrunning the cold air into the metro - because the GFS continues to suppress it and its not overrunning into the cold air - also have to wait and see if the GFS ensembles handle it differently then the OP ................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 12Z GFS ensembles are further north with the overrunning then the OP http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12120.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 12Z Euro is coming in well south with the over running so far through hr 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 At hr 120 the precip shield is pretty far north (12z Euro) but stil to our west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Good hit at hr 126, everyone from I-78 north is below freezing. Moderate precip over the area. North shore is below freezing, south shore isn't. Good hit at hr 132, especially for northern NJ. Only problem is that most of it falls during the day on Tuesday. The city remains below freezing for the whole event. The city west is 0.75"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Late miller B incoming at hr 144. Primary into the UP of Michigan. Coastal popping off the Jersey shore. Moderate to heavy rain over the region. Borderline for the Lower Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 The euro is still further north than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 To break it down for everyone (12z Euro) snow begins falling between 12z and 18z Monday and stops between 00z and 06z Tuesday. Probably a warning criteria snowfall for the western burbs. We might lose some accumulations to the March sun and relatively warm ground, but it should come down at a good clip for awhile. (12z Euro verbatim) The Euro was really close to showing a huge solution. There isn't much of a gap between the miller B and the over running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 I'm guessing here is below freezing and .5"-.75"? That should be a solid 4-6" after dealing with the sun and temps, probably closes Stamford schools on monday verbatim. Gets washed away very quickly, might not even bother to have the plow guy come and save some $$$, I'll just park on the street... -skisheep Total precip is about 0.3-0.4 for allNot sure where yanksfan sees 0.75 for city west. There are 3 frames where there is precip and temps supportive of snow. Combined it is 0.1-0.25 for two of them and the last frame is 0.05-0.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Euro looks crazy in the long range. Looks like record cold, monster block, and a split flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Euro looks crazy in the long range. Looks like record cold, monster block, and a split flow Yes yes and yes. Two sub freezing days and storm chances with what looks like a huge setup at 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Total precip is about 0.3-0.4 for all Not sure where yanksfan sees 0.75 for city west. There are 3 frames where there is precip and temps supportive of snow. Combined it is 0.1-0.25 for two of them and the last frame is 0.05-0.1 OK that makes much more sense, that would have been a major jump from the 0z run, and the whole event shifted south according to New England Forum. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Surface temps are in the upper 20s for the overrunning event for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Surface temps are in the upper 20s for the overrunning event for NYC. Wow, still a solid advisory event for the city even if it's only .4, there should be no trouble with 10-1 or higher ratios. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Wow, still a solid advisory event for the city even if it's only .4, there should be no trouble with 10-1 or higher ratios. -skisheep About .30-.40 qpf. Most likely an advisory event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 About .30-.40 qpf. Most likely an advisory event Yup, 3-4". Ratios should be 10-1 maybe a bit higher if it really gets down into the 20s, so 4" is probably a good bet VERBATIM on the EURO. It has been trending to the southern GFS though, so caution flags out in full force. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Yup, 3-4". Ratios should be 10-1 maybe a bit higher if it really gets down into the 20s, so 4" is probably a good bet VERBATIM on the EURO. It has been trending to the southern GFS though, so caution flags out in full force. -skisheep What time period, Sunday night into Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Alright I'll take your word for it as I don't have access to the individual soundings. Not that it matters but what did the snow clown maps look like? My guess is 6" + for all of northern NJ. I haven't seen them but ya pretty close to 6 probably id agree maybe 4-5in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.