CooL Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 No huge storm after. Over running is main show. It's all snow Not sure if that's overrunning, looks more like a split flow type southern jet wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Close to a inch of liquid from over running plenty cold Wow, impressive! What day is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 On the text, SMQ gets 1.00" of liquid from this system. Mostly, if not all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Not sure if that's overrunning, looks more like a split flow type southern jet wave You are correct it forms more of a low pressure. Which becomes main show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 You are correct it forms more of a low pressure. Which becomes main show Looks liks the stronger clipper ahead of it pushed the colder air further south behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Looks like the 2nd later impulse will have a pretty strong affect on the third (if there is a 3rd). If the overunning/Monday system is strong it will surpess kill the 3rd (EURO)...if the Overunning/Monday event is weaker further south/less amplified it will allow the 3rd system to be more of a factor (GFS). We shall see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 that's an impressive high and it wasn't as strong on the 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 There is absolutely no sign of a spring like pattern on the Euro. After the system departs, close to -12 C 850s reach the NYC metro area, and another event in the day 9 range reaches the area as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 more precip on 22nd. no warmup on euro today. enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 No huge storm after. Over running is main show. It's all snow you sure?..surface temps and whether it snows night or day are big at this time of year..can't look at 850 temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 per 12z euro 850 is well south of NYC. 32 surface line hangs around the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 per 12z euro 850 is well south of NYC. 32 surface line hangs around the city. -4 to -5 925mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 that's an impressive high and it wasn't as strong on the 00z run Yeah much of that comes down to the handling of the PV and interactions over Canada. So I think we'll see many fluctuations over the next few days. It really is an impressive feature on this run though...really dominates the pattern when you glance at the surface maps. Would be quite a sight to see those type of neg departures with that firm of a high pressure in control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 EURO I think is a good solution to have, the third event was going to be marginal in any situation. I think the overrunning event is our best shot to get a nice snowfall, both the EURO and GFS have had it being a nice event in it's various runs. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 with surface temps above freezing mid to upper 30's at least during the day and closer to lower 30's at night - in order for any snow that falls to actually stick in the immediate NYC metro the precip has to fall at night and be moderate to heavy - which is questionable this far out - areas further north and west would probably be cold enough - so there is no guarantee this is an all snow event with surface temps near or above freezing in mid march the closer you get to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 with surface temps above freezing mid to upper 30's at least during the day and closer to lower 30's at night - in order for any snow that falls to actually stick in the immediate NYC metro the precip has to fall at night and be moderate to heavy - which is questionable this far out - areas further north and west would probably be cold enough - so there is no guarantee this is an all snow event with surface temps near or above freezing in mid march the closer you get to the coast Verbatim with that strong high and preciep rates this will be all snow to the beaches. Most places had 3-7 the other day with horrible air mass. Surface temps are plenty cold this go around verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 with surface temps above freezing mid to upper 30's at least during the day and closer to lower 30's at night - in order for any snow that falls to actually stick in the immediate NYC metro the precip has to fall at night and be moderate to heavy - which is questionable this far out - areas further north and west would probably be cold enough - so there is no guarantee this is an all snow event with surface temps near or above freezing in mid march the closer you get to the coast Not to mention the ECM ensembles look warmer then the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 -4 to -5 925mb temps. With 40kt East winds, I don't know about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Not to mention the ECM ensembles look warmer then the OP 12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS168.gif Why does it have a primary over buffalo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 12, 2013 Author Share Posted March 12, 2013 Verbatim with that strong high and preciep rates this will be all snow to the beaches. Most places had 3-7 the other day with horrible air mass. Surface temps are plenty cold this go around verbatim Ironically, this is a much better airmass even though it's much later in the month. Using climo will burn you in this case because while the averages are going up, the PV is swinging around to this side of the pole and bringing a fresher arctic airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 with surface temps above freezing mid to upper 30's at least during the day and closer to lower 30's at night - in order for any snow that falls to actually stick in the immediate NYC metro the precip has to fall at night and be moderate to heavy - which is questionable this far out - areas further north and west would probably be cold enough - so there is no guarantee this is an all snow event with surface temps near or above freezing in mid march the closer you get to the coast According to the 12z EURO text from Accupro, the 6 hours ending at 0z tuesday have .52 of liquid(that's an inch of snow per hour), and surface temp at KNYC is 1.2, or 34.2F. With that rate of precip, it probably accumulates in manhattan(it's borderline, but probably good for 3-4" or so), and once you get into suburban NJ/westchester/CT it should have little trouble accumulating at the standard 10-1. the other good news is that most systems have trended colder in the near term(the blizzard was 4-8" after a heavy rain for NYC a few days out.) Still plenty of time, but I'm intrested. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 With 40kt East winds, I don't know about that. The maps I have are showing that verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Why does it have a primary over buffalo? Its fairly similar to what WPC shows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Fwiw euro snow maps where 6-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Euro ensembles are plenty cold for the overunning. That map posted here is hour 168, after overunning is over. The operational had a weak coastal also at that hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 BIG signal here for mid/late March. Major arctic blocking, mid winter style on tap -- AO is progged to plummet down to near -4 SD by the 17th-20th period. So whether it's early next week's storm that does the dirty work, the potential several days later, or both, the potential is through the roof for the next couple weeks.Classic severe AO drop akin to what we experienced in the 2009-10 winter.I honestly don't ever remember being this excited for a mid/late March pattern. I'd be both shocked and disappointed if there isn't another accumulating snow event of at least 3" in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 12, 2013 Author Share Posted March 12, 2013 BIG signal here for mid/late March. Major arctic blocking, mid winter style on tap -- AO is progged to plummet down to near -4 SD by the 17th-20th period. So whether it's early next week's storm that does the dirty work, the potential several days later, or both, the potential is through the roof for the next couple weeks. Classic severe AO drop akin to what we experienced in the 2009-10 winter. I honestly don't ever remember being this excited for a mid/late March pattern. I'd be both shocked and disappointed if there isn't another accumulating snow event of at least 3" in NYC. I haven't lost hope yet in Westchester...it's not just the -NAO signal but also the -EPO signal with the cut-off ridge north of Alaska forcing a lot of cold air into Canada and allowing for the PV to shift into Eastern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 18z gfs is weak with clipper and south with over running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 3rd storm cuts into buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 12, 2013 Author Share Posted March 12, 2013 18z gfs is weak with clipper and south with over running That's a mean airmass over central Canada and the Northern Plains showing up on the 18z GFS. Definitely gives hope with the PV slowly moving east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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