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Biggest Forecast Bust Ever


griteater

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Back in the mid 1980s there was supposed to be a potent Miller A on a Sunday night. Local Knoxville forecasters were predicted 12+ over most of East Tennessee. They were crawling alerts along bottom of the tv screens all afternoon. Thinking I'd get out of school, I spent the night with some friends and we stayed up all night with thoughts of sledding the next day. 

 

It didn't even rain. From 12+ snow to no precip in a 12 hour window. Still not sure what happened.

 

Biggest bust in the positive direction was probably Dec 2009. But it was localized to my area. Forecast for a cold rain but for whatever reason some potent dynamics turned it to heavy snow right over my county and we picked up 8 inches, all of it falling at 34 degrees. Counties west of me also on the Plateau at the same elevation as me  stayed rain, as did counties North of me in SE Ky. Something that doesn't happen very often.

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  • 2 weeks later...

December 2000 was a huge bust in the Triangle area. Biggest bust around here that I can remember.

January 2000 was the biggest bust on the positive side I've ever seen. Amazing storm.

I know those two were mentioned above, but they're my top two anyway.

 

Those are probably the biggest ones I can remember, too. Unfortunately, we have a lot more around here on the negative side than the positive side.

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The January 2000 mega-snowstorm was by far the biggest bust I've ever seen. I recall the forecasts for Central NC the afternoon before were on the order of a couple of inches, then as the evening went on and ridiculous snowfall rates started up, the forecast was revised upward bit-by-bit for the rest of the night. When I woke up in the morning to nearly two feet of snow at my house, I thought I was looking out at a scene on Hoth from Empire Strikes Back. It was unreal. What was hilarious was that when I started college later that year, that storm was used as a case study in one of my classes to illustrate what can happen when the models have a VERY poor handle on what a storm is doing.

 

 

Why can't that happen more often? :cry:

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March 2001 has to be one of the most epic busts of the last two decades....

I recall as a young-un having my NOAA Weather Cube in hand going to bed in Atlanta serenaded by Heavy Snow Warnings from Peachtree City only to wake to nothing...I can't recall the time very well though I am guessing Feb 1973...perhaps Larry can recall if Atl was thought to be getting that one beforehand...That was the worst one for me.

Yea, It was Feb. 1973. I lived south of Augusta, GA, we got 16 inches.........

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/Feb1973.html

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In our area, we've had a few busts. Gaston in 2004 was one. Not even on the radar the Friday afternoon before storm, just a little low pressure off our coast. Turned out to be worst storm since Floyd and still is worst now. Lost power for 72 hours and whole area was affected.

Ernesto in '06 was a big bust. Got school out for the day, supposed to be a decent sized TS, and about 5 trees got knocked down in Charleston County.

The pre-Thanksgiving snow in '06 was great for us. Was supposed to be a garden variety cold November rain, then the night before the mets said "maybe" a flurry. It turned out that some places like Daniel Island got close to 1", and this area came close to shutting down.

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