griteater Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The DC snow bust got me thinking about the biggest forecasting busts in this area. Here are the ones that came to mind... Biggest Snow Bust: Dec 2000 We were under a Winter Storm Warning for snow and didn't see a flake (at the time, I believe warnings weren't issued unless at least 4 inches were expected) Biggest Snow Bust on the plus side: Jan 1987 Forecast called for "Rain, possibly mixed with Sleet". Ended up with 9 inches of snow. Other Bust (I think): Hurricane Hugo, Sept 1989 Don't recall the specific forecast for Charlotte, so maybe unfair to call it a bust, but I don't recall any forecasts calling for winds this far inland that would lead to epic tree damage. Was out of power for a week and a half at my house from Hugo. Outside of those, it seems like there were a number of storms in the 80's where a forecast for rain ended up as an ice storm - likely due to forecast guidance not having nearly the skill like they do today with cold air damming. What are some of the biggest forecast busts you've experienced? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Griteater nice topic. I'll think of some and get back with you. Looking at ythe ones you listed, HUGO was forecatsed to roll up through the coasal plain. Friends at ECU where throwing pre hurricane parties, while folks in western part of state had not a clue what was about to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 In Central NC December 2000 was a massive fail. I was in Southern Pines with a forecast of well over a foot I believe and had 5 minutes of flurries. Definitely the worst in my time being here. On the flip side Jan 2000 of course was an awesome and epic bust in the other direction. Another I can remember as a kid on Long Island in NY was in 89 I believe. Basically a KU event turned into freezing rain for a short time then driving rain and 50's with southeasterlies (The low went inland). Superstorm '93 on Long Island: Forecast originally was 36"+ with 100 mph wind gusts. 8" of snow followed by heavy rain was the result. Winds gusted well below that of course. March 2001: I chased back to LI from NC for what was supposed to be an epic event of at least a couple of feet. Several inches fell (north shore got around a foot though). The most recent true bust (although not to these levels above) was 1/17/2013 with a 3-5" forecast for MBY. We had 0.5" and ended as rain. Thankfully I chased to GSO and caught thundersnow there and they had a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 That ULL a month ago might be up there. WSW for three to four inches and a heavy snow warning with only a light mix. Sent from my EVO using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 March 2001 has to be one of the most epic busts of the last two decades.... I recall as a young-un having my NOAA Weather Cube in hand going to bed in Atlanta serenaded by Heavy Snow Warnings from Peachtree City only to wake to nothing...I can't recall the time very well though I am guessing Feb 1973...perhaps Larry can recall if Atl was thought to be getting that one beforehand...That was the worst one for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Feb 2004 was definitely ugly around here, almost forgot...WSW for Chatt...had the Ops center crew put up at the downtown Marriot and we got zip! Never will trust another upper low around here as long as I live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 To many bad bust to list, the last really bad one was about 5 years ago, had a WSW for 4-8", well it started as rain and I knew we were in trouble the warm nose was stronger than thought and we ended up at 33 with heavy rain for the entire event it never snowed at all. Dec 2000 was one that worked out for us, I remember them saying we would start as snow here then quickly change over to sleet and rain and were were in a WWA and no talk of accumulations. TWC had sent a team to Raleigh due to the call of a foot or more there, well in the end I had 10-15" on average in the yard and my truck had a solid 15" on the roof the next morning and it never really never snowed much west of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 December 2000 was a huge bust in the Triangle area. Biggest bust around here that I can remember. January 2000 was the biggest bust on the positive side I've ever seen. Amazing storm. I know those two were mentioned above, but they're my top two anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 A couple of years ago....not sure maybe 2011 we were under a Blizzard Warning. Never got the snow or really the wind. Stayed partly cloudy & breezy all day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 March 2001 has to be one of the most epic busts of the last two decades.... I recall as a young-un having my NOAA Weather Cube in hand going to bed in Atlanta serenaded by Heavy Snow Warnings from Peachtree City only to wake to nothing...I can't recall the time very well though I am guessing Feb 1973...perhaps Larry can recall if Atl was thought to be getting that one beforehand...That was the worst one for me. I can't help with this one. I was living in Savannah at that time and was a kid. We got 3-4" of snow there. I don't have any info on what was being forecasted for ATL. I do know from the maps that this was a Miller A but with a track that was further south than the classic track, over the central FL pen. Sometimes, a track like that will still give ATL major snow (example 1/2002). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 it was sometime in the 1990's and all of wnc was predicted to get 18 inches of snow. I was driving home from work and Monty Dupree on channel 4 was on the radio said we would get 18 inches of snow in wnc and upstate about 10 inches and n ga also. woke up the next morning and we didn't even have any flurries. don't quite know what happend, no one ever explained. I think the storm went to far south, was really suppressed . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 TWC had sent a team to Raleigh due to the call of a foot or more there, well in the end I had 10-15" on average in the yard and my truck had a solid 15" on the roof the next morning and it never really never snowed much west of I-95. I recall that one well...that was a big bust for us. Kocin was not real happy climo speaking with another huge Raleigh event in the same year even if the models thought it might happen there again. He was, of course, correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Carolina Splits should be up there somewhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Well, this storm busted so big that one DC meteorologist had to sit in time out during the morning segment. http://www.myfoxdc.com/story/21541124/snowstorm-spares-dc-heads-toward-new-england#axzz2MqcAfuyA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teru Teru Bozu Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The January 2000 mega-snowstorm was by far the biggest bust I've ever seen. I recall the forecasts for Central NC the afternoon before were on the order of a couple of inches, then as the evening went on and ridiculous snowfall rates started up, the forecast was revised upward bit-by-bit for the rest of the night. When I woke up in the morning to nearly two feet of snow at my house, I thought I was looking out at a scene on Hoth from Empire Strikes Back. It was unreal. What was hilarious was that when I started college later that year, that storm was used as a case study in one of my classes to illustrate what can happen when the models have a VERY poor handle on what a storm is doing. On the boring side of things, while I was in college (in Upstate NY) in 2004, a major severe weather outbreak was forecast once for basically the entire state (we were even under a PDS tornado watch and moderate risk), and no severe weather ended up verifying for the event whatsoever. No tornadoes, no hail, no spooked cows, nothin'. A bunch of us went out on a rare New York chase, and...yeah. That totally sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 December 2000 made me absolutely sick. Fortunately, I didn't have access to this forum back then or I would've been melting down. I guess it serves us central NC folks right, though, as had a monumental bust in the other direction in January 11 months earlier! We also had a snowstorm in November 2000 that delivered ~2" of snow right around/before Thanksgiving. So cool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 I was living in Gastonia during Hugo and think they were calling for breezy condions and a little rain . I remember for sure , the pincipal came on the intercom an said" we have never missed a day of school for a hurricane,EVER" ! This was the day before and the next day we all know what happened. Total devastation ! Was out of school for seven school days,and no power for 6 days ! Go Holbrook Jr High ! Principal epic fail! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 January 2003 is the biggest positive bust that I can remember. December 2000 has to be the worst bust I can remember. I'll never forget Jim Cantore at the rams/panthers game reporting on the partly cloudy skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Also another quick fail , late 80s , met on wsoc out of Charlotte , Jerry Peterson, I think, said 8 or 10 flakes would mix in with rain . Woke up to 10 inches of snow! Bust in a good way. ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 I grew up in Florida. We didn't have to worry about busting snow forecasts, but we did have hurricanes to deal with. The biggest bust I can remember is Hurricane Charley. It was forecast to make landfall near Tampa after scraping by Sarasota (my hometown). As we all know, it started its northeasterly turn earlier than anticipated. We ended up with TS force gusts while 40 miles inland saw Cat. 1/2 winds. Charley is what turned my casual passion into a raging inferno. And... here I am! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 I think 98 or 97 was another year for me a huge bust happened. I remember watching TV the night before and they were talking about how in the morning there would be 4 inches on the ground and it would be snowing. My brother and I stayed up late because we knew there would be no school. We woke up early to get a break on the snow and there was nothing. In fact by about 7 am there was not a cloud in the sky and only a very very fine little patch of snow on cars. Anyways just to east and just to west got around 2 inches and schools were closed. Every school seemed to be closed except Clevland County schools. We make it to school on time and no one is there except for us and teachers. Turns out we were on a 2 hour delay but the news channel we were watching didn't show it. As for the storm it hit the mountains broke up and we got caught in the empty patches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Not a big one by any means but in 1999 I remember an Atlanta NBC met saying that if you see a flurry take a picture because you will be the lucky one. Meanwhile you could see the clipper on radar looking like it was going to come a little south. We woke up to 1.5" of wet snow but we still had to go to school. My jerk of a spanish teacher wouldn't let us go and play in the snow and by the time we got to second period the snow had melted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 I remember Accuwx's winter outlook for 2011-12. Specifically the upper midwest and Chicagoland where they said folks will want to move away after such a harsh and cold winter. That still makes me chuckle and lol to this day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockyKnob Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 The January 2000 bust contributed to the December 2000 bust, IMO. The mets missed the Jan bust so badly, they thought they were seeing the same set up in December and so rolled out the big totals. I recall a forecast for 18". I was living in Greensboro for both events. There was literally nothing forecast for us in January 2000. The morning after the storm with a foot of snow on the ground the local morning show ran the weather segment from the previous morning, either by mistake or intentionally to goose the meterologist. Anyway, the segment showed the met saying there may be a flake or two but certainly nothing to get excited about. Meanwhile, there was 1 foot plus outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cloudcrash619 Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 On an evening in Feb. 2010 I was under a Winter Weather Advisory and forecasters were expecting around an inch of snow to fall overnight. Instead, I woke up to 6 inches. Schools were closed and everything. Moderate to heavy snow fell from about 2 AM to 8 AM, Winter Weather Advisories were quickly replaced with Winter Storm Warnings. I was so excited and built a mini snowman (too lazy to make a big one.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 What about the surprise Valentine's Day snow in the triad? Pretty sure WXII12 went off the air at 6pm saying some light cold rain was coming out of the south-west (but viewers in Yadkin County reported some snow was falling right as the newscast ended) and by the time next newscast came on (11pm) there was a few inches of snow on the ground in Greensboro. Ripped Wilkes County off tho. I was so pissed I didn't go to school anyway. Happened at least 5 years ago I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 What about the surprise Valentine's Day snow in the triad? Pretty sure WXII12 went off the air at 6pm saying some light cold rain was coming out of the south-west (but viewers in Yadkin County reported some snow was falling right as the newscast ended) and by the time next newscast came on (11pm) there was a few inches of snow on the ground in Greensboro. Ripped Wilkes County off tho. I was so pissed I didn't go to school anyway. Happened at least 5 years ago I believe. I think you are referring to this one. RAH has a good case study of it: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20080213/ I remember being caught completely off-guard from that one. I was watching TV or something, not expecting snow at all, and all of a sudden I looked at the window and it was pouring snow. That was a sure "WTF?" moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 In the early 90s, not sure when exactly.......I was in college here in Johnson City. Forecasters were anticipating a Miller A to hit the Tricities with a significant snow. Watches were hoisted predicting 8-12 inches. Watches turned to Warnings the evening before the event. I woke up early, before sunrise, and turned on my noaa radio. Much to my surprise they had upped totals to 16-20 inches. KTRI never saw any snow. I never knew exactly what happened, but I think the storm went further west and dry slotted us big time bc I don't even remember having anything but sprinkles. Truly a terrible bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Winter of 89. I had just moved to Greenville and at the time had just left some decent winters in tidewater Va and spending my formative years in WV so I wasn't as deparate for snow as I am now. The forecast was for something like 8 - 12 inches. I am guessing this might have been some sort of ULL based on how it turned out. Anyhow it started snowing pretty good mid morning and most everyone left work. Being a young and single I headed to a local watering hole. By the time I got there everything turned to rain. Anything that fell earlier washed away. Huge Bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 I grew up in Florida. We didn't have to worry about busting snow forecasts, but we did have hurricanes to deal with. The biggest bust I can remember is Hurricane Charley. It was forecast to make landfall near Tampa after scraping by Sarasota (my hometown). As we all know, it started its northeasterly turn earlier than anticipated. We ended up with TS force gusts while 40 miles inland saw Cat. 1/2 winds. Charley is what turned my casual passion into a raging inferno. And... here I am! I remember that. I lived just south of Ft. Myers at the time Charley was coming in and we had police and firefighters urging everyone to leave. Gone for 4 hours, came back home to our carrotwood tree on our neighbor's house, fencing down, flooding, and no power for 2 weeks. I loved it, every single solitary second of it and now I follow it religiously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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