Guess the 2013 SIE, SIA and volume minimum

[PhillipS]

Bump since the Arctic is at, or near, the 2013 minimums.  Looking back over my guesses I did terribly.

[Jonger]

Everyone bombed extent.

[ineedsnow]

not me 

Everyone bombed extent.

[Mallow]

I'm using a purely linear-decline statistical forecast since 2002.

95% confidence intervals...

SIE: 2.99-4.84

SIA: 1.73-3.02

SIV: 1.50-3.97

 

Forecast...

SIE: 3.9

SIA: 2.4

SIV: 2.7

 

Looks like it's going to be outside the 95% confidence bounds on all three! Haha, yay for statistics! But there was always a 1/20 chance that it would happen.

 

On the plus side, this should increase the standard deviation enough that next year's bounds should be wider, allowing for freak years like this one.

[tacoman25]

Looks like it's going to be outside the 95% confidence bounds on all three! Haha, yay for statistics! But there was always a 1/20 chance that it would happen.

 

On the plus side, this should increase the standard deviation enough that next year's bounds should be wider, allowing for freak years like this one.

 

Or like 2012?

[Mallow]

Or like 2012?

 

All things considered, 2007 was probably a more freakish year than 2012. And I'm not sure either match this year, at least statistically. I'm betting that even after this year is in and the bounds are widened to account for a larger std. dev., 2013 will still be outside the 95th percentile bounds. 2007 and 2012 won't.

[tacoman25]

All things considered, 2007 was probably a more freakish year than 2012. And I'm not sure either match this year, at least statistically. I'm betting that even after this year is in and the bounds are widened to account for a larger std. dev., 2013 will still be outside the 95th percentile bounds. 2007 and 2012 won't.

 

I guess we really won't know which year was the most freakish for a few years. If the next few years average around 4.0 or below, it was definitely 2013. If they average around 4.5 or above, it was definitely 2012. 

 

But I understand what you're saying regarding statistical trends.

[Mallow]

I guess we really won't know which year was the most freakish for a few years. If the next few years average around 4.0 or below, it was definitely 2013. If they average around 4.5 or above, it was definitely 2012. 

 

But I understand what you're saying regarding statistical trends.

 

Sure. As you know, I'm just discussing tacking this year on to the end. If the linear downward trend seen from 2002-2012 was steeper than the longer-term trend, then from that perspective, 2012 will end up being more anomalous.