This is the worst bust I have ever experienced by far

[Bob Chill]

Yeah I'm not surprised...they are biased warm...the worry though was that it didn't show 35F temps for I-95 that would have verified more like 32-33F...it showed 36-37F that verified as 35F during lunchtime.

 

At any rate, the precip was definitely an issue. The really intense bands and rates (like 0.15" per hour in the bucket kind of stuff) never seemed to materialize over the DC/BWI area save maybe some fleeting moments.

 

As is often the case, there was probably no single factor late led to the huge bust, but rather a few of them conspiring in exactly the wrong way.

 

We are so good at that lately that our record is astonishing. We can't even get half a storm that's still locked in AFTER it starts snowing. It's so remarkable what we can accomplish down here that it makes me laugh in between crying spells. 

[SNO]

You would have to think next winter will be better...right?

[midatlanticweather]

I am not a meteorologist (thank goodness) but, if I were, I would be looking back at all the guidance in detail to figure out what in the world to trust. I would also hope we do not have any other marginal events this year! I would be scared to make any snow forecasts!

 

BTW - the spin by those that failed their forecasts is sad!

 

Edit:

AND - I appreciate hearing this from the mets here! Thanks for the feedback!

[Farmboy]

This may be of interest for those trying to remember the details of March 2001. I cut and pasted it at the time from the old ne.weather newsgroup:

 

 

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR 05 THRU 09 MAR 2001
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...NCEP...NWS...WASHINGTON DC
2:27 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2001...PRELIMINARY VERSION.

POTENTIALLY SERIOUS E COAST STORM STARTING LATE ON DAY 3 (SUN).

THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG COASTAL WINDS CONTINUES FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC..  

...MODEL OVERVIEW AND DISCUSSION...
 
WE NOW HAVE HIGHER CERTAINTY THAT THERE WILL INDEED BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR STORM ALONG THE EAST COAST...MAYBE EVEN A
BLIZZARD...IN THE DAY 2-3 PERIOD.

THE VERY STRONG BLOCK NW OVER THE SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT WILL DRIFT
WESTWARD AND WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT DAYS...BUT CONTROL THE
WEATHER OVER NOAM THE ENTIRE TIME.

CONCERNING THE EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS...MODELS ARE GROUPED INTO
THREE SCHOOLS OF THOUGHT.  THE ECMWF HAS NOW JOINED THE AVN/MRF
NOGAPS IN FORECASTING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF CAP HATTERAS IN
THE 60-72 HOUR PERIOD...POSSIBLY EVEN A SNOWSTORM OF HISTORICAL
PROPORTIONS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  

THE MIDDLE SCHOOL IS PORTRAYED BY THE CANADIAN WHICH DROPS A COLD
VORTEX SOUTHWARD ACROSS WV INTO NC DAYS 3-4. WHILE IT STILL HAS ITS
MAIN SURFACE STORM FAR OUT AT SEA...IT IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR AT 500
MILLIBARS TO THE LATEST AVN RUN THAT DOES INDEED SHOW AN
INTENSIFYING STORM.

LAST NIGHTS UKMET AND MODEL ENSEMBLE DATA ARE IN THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE SCHOOL. THEY ARE CONSISTENT IN SLOWLY MOVING A DEEP
COLD VORTEX ACROSS THE ERN LAKES DAY 3. THEIR SOLUTIONS SUPPRESS
STRONG SYS MOVING ACROSS THE SERN STATES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT
HEAVY PCPN DOES NOT GET INTO NYC AND NEW ENG SUN-TUE. UNTIL
TODAY...THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS MORE LIKE THE NOGAPS.  

WHEN WE PUT EVERYTHING TOGETHER...THE NEW AVN RUN HAS ACTUALLY
REINFORCED THE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS SCENARIO.  THE 60HOUR ETA HAS
TRENDED FARTHER NORTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
SNOW FOR THE MID ATLANTIC SUN. WHAT COULD MAKE THIS A HISTORICAL
STORM IS THAT THE VERY COLD DEEP VORTEX OVER NORTHERN MAINE IS
FORECAST BY THE MRF/AVN/ECMWF/NOGAPS TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...THEN MAKE A SHARP
LEFT TURN SOUTHWARD INTO OHIO DAY 3 WHILE EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING
OCCURS EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE CLOSEST ANALOG TO THIS IS AT 500
MILLIBARS IS THE BLIZZARD OF JAN 29-30 1966. THE FEB 6 1978 CASE...WHICH
BURIED SOUTHERN NEW ENG/NYC/EASTERN PA...IS A CLOSE SECOND. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 1978 AND THE 1966 CASES IS  THAT THE MAIN VORT
ENERGY ALOFT DROPPED SOUTHEAST AND CLOSED OFF OVER THE DELMARVA
REGION IN 1978 RATHER THAN TURNING SOUTH AFTER A WESTWARD TREK
ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE SEAWAY(1966). THERE IS MINUS 40C AIR AT 500
MILLIBARS IN THE VORTEX OVER NORTHERN MAINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A TREMENDOUS SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE CONUS.
THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE OF HEAVY PCPN...COUPLED WITH DE-
STABILIZATION AS VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT REACH THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...COULD GENERATE A VERY POWERFUL STORM SUN NIGHT INTO TUE FOR
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AREAS.  WE FEEL THAT THE
AVN SCENARIO IS BASICALLY CORRECT. EAST COAST...WATCH OUT!

...EAST COAST STATES...

USING THE AVN AS OUR MAIN TOOL...WE LOOK FOR HEAVY SNOW SUN NIGHT
INTO MON OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTS.
THERE MAY BE BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING...ALONG WITH WINDS
EXCEEDING GALE FORCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FARTHER INLAND
..MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM VA THRU THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW WIND CHILLS WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE HIGH TEENS TO MID 20'S. THERE COULD EVEN BE
THUNDERSNOW.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY EXCEED A FOOT FROM
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA NORTHEASTWARD THRU THE MAJOR
METROPOLITAN AREAS. THE AVN HAS TARGETED NJ AS AN AREA WHERE AS
MUCH AS TWO FEET COULD FALL.  THE BACK EDGE OF SNOWFALL FROM WV
INTO ERN OH WILL BE SHARP AND A FUNCTION OF WHERE THE UPPER SHEAR
AXIS SETS UP. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.

FARTHER SOUTH...VERY COLD AND WINDY WITH HARD FREEZES POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND MUCH OF FL.

FOR TUE (DAY 4)... SNOW GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF OVER THE SRN NEW
ENG/MID ATLANTIC AREAS. COLD AND WINDY WITH LOW WIND CHILLS AND
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDY AND COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
EVEN INTO WED (DAY 5) AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST.  CONTINUED COLD WITH HARD FREEZES IN NRN FL AND THE GULF
COAST REGION.

ANOTHER STORM IS DEPICTED FOR THE SOUTHEAST STATES DAYS 6-7 WITH THE
EAST REMAINING VERY COLD.

 

     
FLOOD/FORECAST OPERATIONS BRANCH
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov 
NNNN        

[Bob Chill]

The bottom line is that every meteorologist in the US and probably Canada looked hard at this storm. Even college professors. They all agreed. Weenies always have goggles and we don't count anyway. But given ALL the guidance that was pouring in from -1 to 48 hours there was really no other call to make. Sure, you could have questioned temps and drew the line a little further west AND cut the predicted totals in half and still busted pretty huge. 

 

One thing I do know. This would have been ALL SNOW 15 years ago. Ian's has said multiple times that we are losing on the margins. I never doubted when he first said and yesterday was a stark reminder. 

[87storms]

This may be of interest for those trying to remember the details of March 2001. I cut and pasted it at the time from the old ne.weather newsgroup:

 

 

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR 05 THRU 09 MAR 2001

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...NCEP...NWS...WASHINGTON DC

2:27 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2001...PRELIMINARY VERSION.

POTENTIALLY SERIOUS E COAST STORM STARTING LATE ON DAY 3 (SUN).

THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG COASTAL WINDS CONTINUES FOR THE

MID-ATLANTIC..  

...MODEL OVERVIEW AND DISCUSSION...

 

WE NOW HAVE HIGHER CERTAINTY THAT THERE WILL INDEED BE THE

DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR STORM ALONG THE EAST COAST...MAYBE EVEN A

BLIZZARD...IN THE DAY 2-3 PERIOD.

THE VERY STRONG BLOCK NW OVER THE SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT WILL DRIFT

WESTWARD AND WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT DAYS...BUT CONTROL THE

WEATHER OVER NOAM THE ENTIRE TIME.

CONCERNING THE EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS...MODELS ARE GROUPED INTO

THREE SCHOOLS OF THOUGHT.  THE ECMWF HAS NOW JOINED THE AVN/MRF

NOGAPS IN FORECASTING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF CAP HATTERAS IN

THE 60-72 HOUR PERIOD...POSSIBLY EVEN A SNOWSTORM OF HISTORICAL

PROPORTIONS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  

THE MIDDLE SCHOOL IS PORTRAYED BY THE CANADIAN WHICH DROPS A COLD

VORTEX SOUTHWARD ACROSS WV INTO NC DAYS 3-4. WHILE IT STILL HAS ITS

MAIN SURFACE STORM FAR OUT AT SEA...IT IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR AT 500

MILLIBARS TO THE LATEST AVN RUN THAT DOES INDEED SHOW AN

INTENSIFYING STORM.

LAST NIGHTS UKMET AND MODEL ENSEMBLE DATA ARE IN THE MORE

CONSERVATIVE SCHOOL. THEY ARE CONSISTENT IN SLOWLY MOVING A DEEP

COLD VORTEX ACROSS THE ERN LAKES DAY 3. THEIR SOLUTIONS SUPPRESS

STRONG SYS MOVING ACROSS THE SERN STATES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT

HEAVY PCPN DOES NOT GET INTO NYC AND NEW ENG SUN-TUE. UNTIL

TODAY...THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS MORE LIKE THE NOGAPS.  

WHEN WE PUT EVERYTHING TOGETHER...THE NEW AVN RUN HAS ACTUALLY

REINFORCED THE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS SCENARIO.  THE 60HOUR ETA HAS

TRENDED FARTHER NORTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND SHOWS SIGNIFICANT

SNOW FOR THE MID ATLANTIC SUN. WHAT COULD MAKE THIS A HISTORICAL

STORM IS THAT THE VERY COLD DEEP VORTEX OVER NORTHERN MAINE IS

FORECAST BY THE MRF/AVN/ECMWF/NOGAPS TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD

INTO THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...THEN MAKE A SHARP

LEFT TURN SOUTHWARD INTO OHIO DAY 3 WHILE EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING

OCCURS EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE CLOSEST ANALOG TO THIS IS AT 500

MILLIBARS IS THE BLIZZARD OF JAN 29-30 1966. THE FEB 6 1978 CASE...WHICH

BURIED SOUTHERN NEW ENG/NYC/EASTERN PA...IS A CLOSE SECOND. THE MAIN

DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 1978 AND THE 1966 CASES IS  THAT THE MAIN VORT

ENERGY ALOFT DROPPED SOUTHEAST AND CLOSED OFF OVER THE DELMARVA

REGION IN 1978 RATHER THAN TURNING SOUTH AFTER A WESTWARD TREK

ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE SEAWAY(1966). THERE IS MINUS 40C AIR AT 500

MILLIBARS IN THE VORTEX OVER NORTHERN MAINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY

SHOWS A TREMENDOUS SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE CONUS.

THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE OF HEAVY PCPN...COUPLED WITH DE-

STABILIZATION AS VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT REACH THE MID ATLANTIC

COAST...COULD GENERATE A VERY POWERFUL STORM SUN NIGHT INTO TUE FOR

THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AREAS.  WE FEEL THAT THE

AVN SCENARIO IS BASICALLY CORRECT. EAST COAST...WATCH OUT!

...EAST COAST STATES...

USING THE AVN AS OUR MAIN TOOL...WE LOOK FOR HEAVY SNOW SUN NIGHT

INTO MON OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTS.

THERE MAY BE BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING...ALONG WITH WINDS

EXCEEDING GALE FORCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FARTHER INLAND

..MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM VA THRU THE

SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW WIND CHILLS WITH TEMPS

GENERALLY IN THE HIGH TEENS TO MID 20'S. THERE COULD EVEN BE

THUNDERSNOW.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY EXCEED A FOOT FROM

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA NORTHEASTWARD THRU THE MAJOR

METROPOLITAN AREAS. THE AVN HAS TARGETED NJ AS AN AREA WHERE AS

MUCH AS TWO FEET COULD FALL.  THE BACK EDGE OF SNOWFALL FROM WV

INTO ERN OH WILL BE SHARP AND A FUNCTION OF WHERE THE UPPER SHEAR

AXIS SETS UP. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE

EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.

FARTHER SOUTH...VERY COLD AND WINDY WITH HARD FREEZES POSSIBLE

ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND MUCH OF FL.

FOR TUE (DAY 4)... SNOW GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF OVER THE SRN NEW

ENG/MID ATLANTIC AREAS. COLD AND WINDY WITH LOW WIND CHILLS AND

BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDY AND COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE

EVEN INTO WED (DAY 5) AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC

COAST.  CONTINUED COLD WITH HARD FREEZES IN NRN FL AND THE GULF

COAST REGION.

ANOTHER STORM IS DEPICTED FOR THE SOUTHEAST STATES DAYS 6-7 WITH THE

EAST REMAINING VERY COLD.

 

     

FLOOD/FORECAST OPERATIONS BRANCH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov 

NNNN        

 

wow nice pull.  the hype surrounding that on friday night was theatric.

[Farmboy]

Also, while not even remotely a "bust," I'm old enough to recall being deeply disappointed by the March 1993 "Storm of the Century" in the immediate D.C. area. Can't remember what the forecasts were just before the event, but I have a vivid memory of wading through six miserable inches of sleet and slop in South Arlington instead of deep snow. Obviously, that storm worked out quite well elsewhere.

[Ian]

I am not a meteorologist (thank goodness) but, if I were, I would be looking back at all the guidance in detail to figure out what in the world to trust. I would also hope we do not have any other marginal events this year! I would be scared to make any snow forecasts!

 

BTW - the spin by those that failed their forecasts is sad!

 

Edit:

AND - I appreciate hearing this from the mets here! Thanks for the feedback!

 

i love bob ryan but find it funny in his explainer he references his stations forecast pre late night bump and the numbers are actually lower than what they had on the map.

[NoVaSnow]

i love bob ryan but find it funny in his explainer he references his stations forecast pre late night bump and the numbers are actually lower than what they had on the map.

On Friday night, Bob said he was confident this was not going to be a big deal. We all laughed at him for being so confident 5 days out. He should have held his ground.

[Fozz]

One thing I do know. This would have been ALL SNOW 15 years ago. Ian's has said multiple times that we are losing on the margins. I never doubted when he first said and yesterday was a stark reminder.

1/26/11 was marginal too

[Ian]

On Friday night, Bob said he was confident this was not going to be a big deal. We all laughed at him for being so confident 5 days out. He should have held his ground.

 

yeah maybe tho i think that might have been a 'right for the wrong reason' thing.  then late tuesday he was as or more bullish than anyone else.

 

https://twitter.com/BobRyanABC7/status/309161712504946688

[Curlyq]

I think all aspects of the bust are covered. It was marginal all the way. Everything looked like it was going our way but it just evolved a bit different. 

 

The column supported snow for folks almost at sea level in an near dca. Further into md notsomuch. 

 

It could have been a 6"+ pastejob for dca if it ever got fast and furious and held for 6-10 hours. It didn't get going fast and furious. 

 

No 2 storms are alike and if we got the same type of setup in the future, it could easily end up being a pastejob. It will be doubted until the last flake falls but it's absolutely possible.

 

One thing I don't see mentioned much was the proximity of the ull. That thing was a beast and can overcome many adverse things irt temps between surface and 950. It had no problem doing it in RIC and they were surrounded on all sides by terrible thermals if you wanted snow. We needed the slp to explode a bit futher east and let dynamics knock out the sketchy part of our column up this way. Didn't happen this time. I'll take my chances with that setup at 500 anytime though. 

 

One thing a beastly ull can do on a consistent basis is produce snow when surrounded by air that doesn't support snow. There are a zillion examples of this. 

 

It was marginal all the way.....Based on all the post leading up to this storm, I wouldn't say it was marginal all the way.  People in this forum were on board for a HECS.  Only people who were marginal were the TV mets who were concerned about the rain/snow line.  Then about 9pm Tuesday night, everybody was on board upping totals and scaring the #%&* out of everyone.  I totally disagree with this statement.

[Bob Chill]

1/26/11 was marginal too

 

if yesterday was jan 26 it would have been ALL SNOW

[Ian]

It was marginal all the way.....Based on all the post leading up to this storm, I wouldn't say it was marginal all the way.  People in this forum were on board for a HECS.  Only people who were marginal were the TV mets who were concerned about the rain/snow line.  Then about 9pm Tuesday night, everybody was on board upping totals and scaring the #%&* out of everyone.  I totally disagree with this statement.

 

don't think many people were on board for a hecs until tuesday night.. tuesday night was like post heroin binge for most of us.

[das]

not to digress too much but from discussion of yesterday's storm, but it reminds me of the Nov. 1987 storm where we managed to get heavy snow and high precip.rates overcoming marginal surface temperatures.  IMagine these were different set ups but any key differences that explain the differing outcomes?

 

Good question.  Along with the lower precip rates closer to town and to the east, it's the sharper sun angle and its much stronger irradiance.  During the Nov '87 storm 43 days before the winter solstice, the sun declination at noon was -17°.  Yesterday at noon, 65 days after the solstice, it was much higher at -5°.

 

Here's a useful calculator:  http://nancocad.com/sundec/sundec.htm

[Bob Chill]

It was marginal all the way.....Based on all the post leading up to this storm, I wouldn't say it was marginal all the way.  People in this forum were on board for a HECS.  Only people who were marginal were the TV mets who were concerned about the rain/snow line.  Then about 9pm Tuesday night, everybody was on board upping totals and scaring the #%&* out of everyone.  I totally disagree with this statement.

 

It was always marginal though. But overwhelming guidance pointed to the cities being on the right side of marginal at short leads. 

 

Media can't do the "might be all rain or 12-18" of snow" leading up. That's not going to work. When the call had to be made given everything on the desk, the media had no choice. Calling for high totals through the cities is a dangerous proposition but millions of people live in those areas so you gotta think about their safety. They could have cut the totals in half and it still would have been high impact. 

 

Plenty of areas well west of any talked about snow line busted huge. Especially in MD. That's a stinger

[Bob Chill]

don't think many people were on board for a hecs until tuesday night.. tuesday night was like post heroin binge for most of us.

 

Excactly. We wishcasted a storm using all data for days and days but nobody was deluded. We were all waiting for the dagger that never came. But we nowcasted a hecs. oops

[ohleary]

Shoulda looked at the GFS...and believed it.

 

 

[RodneyS]

Good question.  Along with the lower precip rates closer to town and to the east, it's the sharper sun angle and its much stronger irradiance.  During the Nov '87 storm 43 days before the winter solstice, the sun declination at noon was -17°.  Yesterday at noon, 65 days after the solstice, it was much higher at -5°.

 

Here's a useful calculator:  http://nancocad.com/sundec/sundec.htm

Yes, but March used to be a big snow month in DC when official records were first kept. During the first 30 years of "authentic" DC snow records, March averaged 5.0 inches per year vs 3.7 inches per year in December, when sun angle is most favorable; see http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/dca/dcasnow.txt

[psuhoffman]

They should if they are talking about DCA to BWI...it went as planned (or close) out west in the foothills of the Apps and down back SW in C VA...but for a massive population center it was an epic bust. I would have busted horribly had I been professionally forecasting for those cities. Even though the atmosphere doesn't care if there is a population under it, it matters to a meteorologist (or most who are genuine about preparing the public IMHO) when you don't get it right where everyone lives.

Even out in many of the western VA locations it didn't necessarily go as planned.  I think the area of truly heavy snows, the 12" plus zone was way smaller then expected, and the 18" plus totals were completely limited to higher elevation (and I mean like 2000 feet or more) locations.  I think all around the storm was just way more ragged and less organized then the models implied and that had a HUGE effect given the marginal temperatures and low ratios even where it did snow.  The first band seemed to outrun its support and fall apart, then the second band seemed to have the moisture transport limited by the convective banding that set up right around the low over southeast VA. 

[mappy]

Meh. I got to stay home in my sweatpants, with my girl and watch snow fall all day even if it didn't accumulate. Not the end of the world.

[Bob Chill]

Meh. I got to stay home in my sweatpants, with my girl and watch snow fall all day even if it didn't accumulate. Not the end of the world.

 

early parenthood years make it easy to focus on the new person in your life. Nothing else matters. In just a few short years you'll be tracking storms to get away from dealing with an irrational 2-3 year old who thinks they know better than you. 

 

You'll be back. I'll bump troll this reply in winter of 14/15

[psuhoffman]

We have had several marginal situations even in January and February lately and those don't work out either.  I am alarmed by the inability of our area to get much more then a cartopper unless the pattern is lined up perfectly.  The really scary thought is, remember the 3 storms in 2009/10, none of them featured truly cold air.  We had a perfect NAO/AO/PNA setup, in the prime winter period, and all we could manage in those 3 storms were temps between 28-32 across our area during those storms.  It has been a LONG time since we got a significant snow event with temps in the teens or lower 20's during the storm.  We are in big trouble around here if this pattern persists because honestly we are only going to get a perfect pattern with a -SOI, -NAO, -AO, +PNA, to line up like that very infrequently.  Sometimes we wont even get a single week with those indices all lined up in an entire winter.  If we need that to have any shot at snow, we are going to get what we have had, one big year every 10 when those factors all line up, and 9 years of virtually nothing.  We have to be able to eek out a snowstorm in a marginal pattern and lately that just seems impossible anymore.  The worst part to me, and what has me shaken honestly, is the few events where we did get "lucky" and the storm track was good, the surface temperatures killed us.  If no storms took a decent track I could buy that as a short term fluke, that the fact that a few storms should have worked for us IMO, but the temps were just a couple degrees too warm, well it seems like a red flag to me that this really is a climate change issue.  I am probably just being overly sensitive because of the bust and 2 crap years back to back  but this seems more then fluke to me. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

We have had several marginal situations even in January and February lately and those don't work out either.  I am alarmed by the inability of our area to get much more then a cartopper unless the pattern is lined up perfectly.  The really scary thought is, remember the 3 storms in 2009/10, none of them featured truly cold air.  We had a perfect NAO/AO/PNA setup, in the prime winter period, and all we could manage in those 3 storms were temps between 28-32 across our area during those storms.  It has been a LONG time since we got a significant snow event with temps in the teens or lower 20's during the storm.  We are in big trouble around here if this pattern persists because honestly we are only going to get a perfect pattern with a -SOI, -NAO, -AO, +PNA, to line up like that very infrequently.  Sometimes we wont even get a single week with those indices all lined up in an entire winter.  If we need that to have any shot at snow, we are going to get what we have had, one big year every 10 when those factors all line up, and 9 years of virtually nothing.  We have to be able to eek out a snowstorm in a marginal pattern and lately that just seems impossible anymore.  The worst part to me, and what has me shaken honestly, is the few events where we did get "lucky" and the storm track was good, the surface temperatures killed us.  If no storms took a decent track I could buy that as a short term fluke, that the fact that a few storms should have worked for us IMO, but the temps were just a couple degrees too warm, well it seems like a red flag to me that this really is a climate change issue.  I am probably just being overly sensitive because of the bust and 2 crap years back to back  but this seems more then fluke to me. 

 

1/30/2010?

[87storms]

this was a hecs...for the wrong reasons.

[Sparky]

Is SocioPath DT?

[Sparky]

this was nothing close to the bust of March 2001. Its not even in the same galaxy. March 01 was suppose to feature 24-36 inches....a stalled system doing loop de loop. It was supposed to be the greatest snowstorm of all time.

 

This bust was a temp bust..the march 2001..was a storm bust...there was no storm!

This....my brother to this day kids me about hyping the "Storm of the Century".

[Yeoman]

i love bob ryan but find it funny in his explainer he references his stations forecast pre late night bump and the numbers are actually lower than what they had on the map.

He's getting fat from not having to use his golden snow shovel in what will likely be 3 years.

[Bob Chill]

psu- you may have already done this but go to here http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl and run surface djf surface temp anoms and h5 anoms for the northern hemisphere. The big + anom for surface temps on the atlantic side of the arctic circle is obviously there because the water is open when it hasn't been for 100's of years. However, there is persistent h5 blocking near it keeping russia in the freezer way more than normal. 

 

The atlantic side of the artic circle has been stinking ice wise early season (like oct-dec) since the 07 ice min. I'm not a fool and think 1+1=2 but I do think there is a chance that the entire NH circ during winter has changed.

 

Cold has been favoring russia/europe/china and warmth has been favoring us. I'm not going down any cc debate nor do I want to. Just stating that the lower ice concentration in the greenland and barents seas combined with warmer sst anoms could potentially be assisting in setting up hl blocking early in the season that keeps cold air away from us. I could be totally out to lunch and 100% way off base but you have to wonder what's going on. Russia is so cold that engine blocks are exploding when people start their cars. It's not like cold isn't around at all. There's plenty of it and russia/europe have set some impressive records recently. 

 

Even in 09-10 we had just a sick -ao along with a -nao. but it really wasn't cold. It was below normal sure but the last time we had blocking like that was in the late 70's and the chesapeake froze shore to shore. 

[mappy]

Meh. I got to stay home in my sweatpants, with my girl and watch snow fall all day even if it didn't accumulate. Not the end of the world.

early parenthood years make it easy to focus on the new person in your life. Nothing else matters. In just a few short years you'll be tracking storms to get away from dealing with an irrational 2-3 year old who thinks they know better than you.

You'll be back. I'll bump troll this reply in winter of 14/15

FAir enough