This is the worst bust I have ever experienced by far

[Ji]

the dulles people dont think you guys busted

 

 

 

soccerman

9:56 AM EST

 

 

I live less than 2 miles from Dulles and had 5" of snow measured on my deck by noon Wednesday...and the most frequent prediction I heard for our area was 4-7" - so I say well done to the forecasters.

[Ian]

yea but every model had DCA getting at least 2 inches too right? Dulles at least 4

 

probably tho i saw twc running snow maps from gfs/euro that looked less.. i wonder if they showed those before the storm tho. day+ prior it was pretty hard to find much less than 4-6" imby from any model as far as i looked.

 

i think outside the very highest elevations numbers were too high pretty much everywhere. that's the other advantage the bullseye has over much of us though. in spring you want to be at like 10,000 feet to get good snow.

[RevWarReenactor]

9 days before the event ZWTS said the temps could be a concern and I felt like that idea never really left me. It always seemed very borderline. The only time I started falling for it was at 10pm the night of the storm when everyone said things were coming in colder and stronger. Ian was in full hype mode and he is never like that. But precip started and temps didn't really fall and I knew that was pretty much it.

 

Certainly not the worst bust. March 2001 takes the cake with that.

[Ji]

CWG is being saved by having alot of fans in Loudoun County and Western Fairfax County, Manasass,Prince william,etc that dont think the storm was a bust

[gymengineer]

Yes it is, that is by FAR the worst bust in this area and I have been living here for 37 years. We were supposed to get at least a foot and we woke up to completely sunny skies. 12 years later it still makes me cry.

Bob Ryan by the 11 pm newscast the night before was saying flurries/no snow for DC, so I headed to bed knowing the WSW wouldn't verify.

[midatlanticweather]

Yep, mostly. which is why I feel like a total ass myself at this pt. We were missing a good cold air source but I think we all just believed that below avg in March was enough to do it with the "dynamics".

 

I was not that surprised with how it ended up IMBY.. Part of my overall 'pessimism' is I try to stay disconnected from the forecast. I think by Tue we all thought we were getting more snow than we got and the 0z models sent it into overdrive. That was not a good 6-12 hours+ for the community... which arguably continued into morning. By sunrise it was apparent we were totally fooked IMO... I grasped, others grapsed, but it was over.

Ya - and if we were not so emotionally attached to snow we would be better! So the more we distance ourselves from being sold on the idea that it will snow the better we will be. I also, at one point, said we need to find every reason why this would not happen and hug it! If it changed, we would be surprised... March, daytime snow --- Every reason in the world to say we were not getting anything or little at best.

 

My snow side overpowered me!

[WxUSAF]

CWG is being saved by having alot of fans in Loudoun County and Western Fairfax County, Manasass,Prince william,etc that dont think the storm was a bust

That (at the time) weird-looking cutoff at the Potomac in both the QPF and clown maps turned out to be pretty darn accurate.  For VA outside the beltway, the forecast was decent, if not great.  

[chris87]

Computers will be better then mets once they perfect the algorithms. Computers don't care about what they are predicting.

 

aren't we already at the point where computers are better than mets...or at least the point where mets are only as good as the computers...the value added component of the met analyzing the model data is continually shrinking (both as NWP improves and mets become further detached from relying on other tools other than NWP [*NOTE broad generalization towards the met community])

 

In the IT world that I work in, when an application makes an serious error in production, we have a process (emergency fix) to analyze the problem with the Business Unit, isolate the code, implement the fix, turn it over to QA for verification, and then schedule an out of sequence deployment with CM.

 

I'm led to believe that a number of models busted really bad for this storm. Is there a process within the NWS to analyze what happened, review the initialization code and analytics, come up with a fix, and get it into production quickly?

 

you're kinda comparing apples to oranges...IT isn't NWP....if the problem was "why didn't the NAM run the night before a storm, we could have really used that forecast but the IT system blew up" then your input might be helpful...and those systems are in place to support IT issues with data....as far as reviews into what went wrong in the forecasts (from a NWP standpoint), i'm sure it will be addressed somewhere in the community (as most big "busts" are)....but even so identifying a factor in a failed NWP forecast can't simply be "addressed with a software patch"...

 

there's a limit to predictability that no review can fix right now....and even as computer power increases, algorithms improve, observations increase, all we'll be hopefully able to do is to limit the uncertainty in a forecast, never will be able to eliminate it...

[Ian]

9 days before the event ZWTS said the temps could be a concern and I felt like that idea never really left me. It always seemed very borderline. The only time I started falling for it was at 10pm the night of the storm when everyone said things were coming in colder and stronger. Ian was in full hype mode and he is never like that. But precip started and temps didn't really fall and I knew that was pretty much it.

 

Certainly not the worst bust. March 2001 takes the cake with that.

 

Temps fell quite a bit with precip onset they just didn't ever fall any more than that.

 

The WAA part totally duped a number of us. Still not 100% sure what happened there. It was producing well to the south (places picked up 2-4" pretty quick) then it just crumbled. Once the tiny uber band got me it was the lamest uber band ever.

 

Guess we were probably seeing a lot of bright banding and dinnerplate flake reflection on radar because most of the bands did not do what they usually do when radar looks like that.

[Yeoman]

Sometimes I wonder if were all into meteorology because we're just a bunch of  retards.

We are gamblers who can't afford to gamble.

[WxUSAF]

Guess we were probably seeing a lot of bright banding and dinnerplate flake reflection on radar because most of the bands did not do what they usually do when radar looks like that.

I'm still baffled by the radar depiction yesterday.  It wasn't great all the time, but I was still in 20-30 dbZ for HOURS with -RASN or -SN falling.  Like 5mi vis -SN.  Just totally disconnected.  Perhaps some melting was duping the radar then as well.  

[Bob Chill]

Temps fell quite a bit with precip onset they just didn't ever fall any more than that.

 

The WAA part totally duped a number of us. Still not 100% sure what happened there. It was producing well to the south (places picked up 2-4" pretty quick) then it just crumbled. Once the tiny uber band got me it was the lamest uber band ever.

 

Guess we were probably seeing a lot of bright banding and dinnerplate flake reflection on radar because most of the bands did not do what they usually do when radar looks like that.

 

Part of my deluded thinking was that the waa was just bonus. I never really focused on it. My eyes were focused on the rippin ccb from the comma head with mod-heavy rates for 6+ hours with no lulls. That's what duped me the most. There was a lot of talk of 30 hour event and stuff like that but I knew that our score would be settled with the rippin rates from the deform band. My worry was not getting into the heavy heavy band that can't be accurately predicted irt mileage. But I fully expected a heavy band to paste us. I think we all did. Had that part gone as planned I think the paste job would have happened but a low bust on totals. 

 

What I didn't see coming was a total fail in the existence of such a band. Off and on lt-mod snow for hours with lulls every 20 minutes was not in the cards for my expectations. That's why I held onto weenie hope even as late as 10am. I will say that I was feeling a little ill when I woke up at sunrise and saw an inch of snow on the ground and nothing really falling. I checked radar and thought "well, there's snow on the ground and it will be rippin later". I slept another couple hours and woke up to the same scene and STILL had hope. By 10am I kinda knew it was game over. But like any good weenie, I saw the doxdeathband as a last grasp. FAIL

[HighStakes]

March 01 was he biggest and greatest bust bar none. I will never forget the graphics and snowfall prediction maps Paul Kocin kept showing relentlessly ever time he had an update. I was so depressed I couldn't even go to work on the Monday that followed. With that being said all the bust suck and stay with a true snow lover forever. Wether it's Feb. 89, Dec. 2000 etc. it doesn't matter. They are all very bitter pills to swallow. Yes I realize my opinion is will differ from many others about yesterday because I did get almost 5 inches, however even if I didn't see a flake yesterday there is no comparison to March 01. That one will stand alone forever or should I say HOPEFULLY forever.

[needbiggerboat]

Sometimes I wonder if were all into meteorology because we're just a bunch of  retards.

 

Dumb post.  I think in your case, you've been unsuccessfully trying to achieve escape velocity from all the stank associated with being Mad Cheese.

[HighStakes]

Dumb post.  I think in your case, you've been unsuccessfully trying to achieve escape velocity from all the stank associated with being Mad Cheese.

Exactly. We are into meteorology because it is fascinating and affects our lives everyday.

[Yeoman]

I'm still baffled by the radar depiction yesterday.  It wasn't great all the time, but I was still in 20-30 dbZ for HOURS with -RASN or -SN falling.  Like 5mi vis -SN.  Just totally disconnected.  Perhaps some melting was duping the radar then as well.  

When I was flying into BWI at about 11am yesterday an absolute blizzard was raging at 500-1000ft while there was nothing on the ground and rain falling upon landing. Melting was clearly enhancing the observed rate of returns on radar.

[WhiteoutWX]

Euro/UKMET/GGEM were south for days but no one here was paying attention. Obviously I'm not saying you completely throw out the NAM/GFS, but you can't say there weren't signs this may bust for the DC area. There was definitely a distinct group of models that were south and a group that were north. The south won.

[stormtracker]

Dumb post.  I think in your case, you've been unsuccessfully trying to achieve escape velocity from all the stank associated with being Mad Cheese.

Finally, someone else who realizes how terrible he is. 

[J.Mike]

Exactly. We are into meteorology because it is fascinating and affects our lives everyday.

TA-DA. What's sad but not unexpected is how political the science of weather has become.

[DCWeatherGuy]

There need to be different categories of bust, I think.  What made this one so gutting was that EVERYTHING seemed to be in place when the event began.  I went to bed at 1am with flurries falling IMBY in in NW DC, and numerous reports of good snow-rates in SE Virginia.  The event was here.  The fear that had consumed the last few days about a delayed change-over from rain to snow seemed to be avoided, temps were falling...I couldn't imagine a scenario where we didn't at least get a decent accumulating snowfall that would allow my kids to go outside and play in real snow for at least for a few minutes at some point during the day. 

[WxUSAF]

Euro/UKMET/GGEM were south for days but no one here was paying attention. Obviously I'm not saying you completely throw out the NAM/GFS, but you can't say there weren't signs this may bust for the DC area. There was definitely a distinct group of models that were south and a group that were north. The south won.

The south group completely caved to the north group over the last 72 hours.  Should we believe the 5 day Euro more than the 1 day Euro?  Get real...

[DCWeatherGuy]

Euro/UKMET/GGEM were south for days but no one here was paying attention. Obviously I'm not saying you completely throw out the NAM/GFS, but you can't say there weren't signs this may bust for the DC area. There was definitely a distinct group of models that were south and a group that were north. The south won.

 

Can you really say that when all of the South models caved (to varying degrees) in the final 12-24 hours before the storm?  I mean, nobody would have been stunned on March 3rd to hear that I-95 would end up fringed by both precip totals and temps.  But by the evening of the 5th?  Totally different story. 

[CAPE]

Euro/UKMET/GGEM were south for days but no one here was paying attention. Obviously I'm not saying you completely throw out the NAM/GFS, but you can't say there weren't signs this may bust for the DC area. There was definitely a distinct group of models that were south and a group that were north. The south won.

Tend to agree. And for all the posting of the clown maps, maybe we should have really seen that the target was never DC or points east. Consistently the threat for heavy snow was west and southwest. Even most runs of the GFS didn't have significant snow towards the bay points east or up to Philly, and DC was on the edge.

[WxUSAF]

Can you really say that when all of the South models caved (to varying degrees) in the final 12-24 hours before the storm?  

It was far earlier than 12-24 hours.  Someone...perhaps wxmeddler...posted an amazing graphic of 3 Euro runs in a row.  I think he posted it Tuesday when DT was having the huge argument on his FB page.  King Euro, Lord of Consistency, had jumped WAY north over a 24 hour period of model runs.  I think those 3 runs were 0z Monday, 12 Monday and 0z Tuesday.  

[WhiteoutWX]

Yeah obviously they came north from SC a few days prior, but still had the heaviest QPF south of DC, even right before the storm. They all had RIC with atleast some snow. GFS/NAM had nothing.

It was a tough forecast either way. It was all about who was gonna get the heavy rates, so If you are looking at QPF on the models, you want to be under the max. The GGEM/UKMET/EURO all had the max south of DC the whole time while the NAM/GFS kept portraying paste job after paste job. How one could have picked one group or the other is up to debate, but there was clearly a southern group of models is all I'm saying.

[WEATHER53]

Yeoman made a good post about melting causing enhanced returns and that seems to have happened a lot this season and needs to be corrected.

 

In general, to me, models try to put out their product via a microscope when binoculars would likely yield a better result.

Some of you will be my age in 30+ years. Observe each storm, note the synoptics, predictions and outcomes, write it down, be careful and accurate and after a while you will have your own "computer model" to refer to which can be used in conjunction with whatever other resources that are available at the time and, at times, can be used to discount such resources.

[WxUSAF]

Yeah obviously they came north from SC a few days prior, but still had the heaviest QPF south of DC, even right before the storm. They all had RIC with atleast some snow. GFS/NAM had nothing.

It was a tough forecast either way. It was all about who was gonna get the heavy rates, so If you are looking at QPF on the models, you want to be under the max. The GGEM/UKMET/EURO all had the max south of DC the whole time while the NAM/GFS kept portraying paste job after paste job. How one could have picked one group or the other is up to debate, but there was clearly a southern group of models is all I'm saying.

Maybe DT has biased your memory.  I can't recall a single solitary model run where DC was the QPF bullseye.  Every model had the bullseye SW of DC on a very consistent basis.  DC had lots of QPF on most runs, no doubt there (even on King Euro), but was never the bullseye.  Maybe the Euro continued to show RIC getting 2-4" of snow while the NAM didn't, but the American models never bullseyed DC.  

[WhiteoutWX]

Yeoman made a good post about melting causing enhanced returns and that seems to have happened a lot this season and needs to be corrected.

In general, to me, models try to put out their product via a microscope when binoculars would likely yield a better result.

Some of you will be my age in 30+ years. Observe each storm, note the synoptics, predictions and outcomes, write it down, be careful and accurate and after a while you will have your own "computer model" to refer to which can be used in conjunction with whatever other resources that are available at the time and, at times, can be used to discount such resources.

Good point. Experience trumps all models when forecasting.

[WhiteoutWX]

Maybe DT has biased your memory. I can't recall a single solitary model run where DC was the QPF bullseye. Every model had the bullseye SW of DC on a very consistent basis. DC had lots of QPF on most runs, no doubt there (even on King Euro), but was never the bullseye. Maybe the Euro continued to show RIC getting 2-4" of snow while the NAM didn't, but the American models never bullseyed DC.

I don't follow DT, I'm not an idiot lol. I'm just saying a lot of people on here were only focused on the GFS/NAM porno runs just as DT was ranting and raving about the euro. I'm just saying there was not a lot of discussion of what the other models were showing.

Just my observation of reading this forum in the days leading up to the storm.

[WEATHER53]

Good point. Experience trumps all models when forecasting.

I have gone against the models and been wrong and still learn and modify my approach. Honestly though, if anyone with skill on here simply monitors, let's say, 3 snowstorm potential for the Ric-Balt corridor per year for 5 years you would have the results to compare to the predictions and that would be a decent based to compare the outcomes to the predictions.