This is the worst bust I have ever experienced by far

[usedtobe]

Will...those temps you showed DID verify too warm for most of the area.  The 35F isotherm was pretty near I-95 for much of the day.  I think the GFS had the surface temps the best, with DCA and BWI between 1-2C for most of the precip.  NAM was obviously too cold and WAY too wet.  It was just the heavy precip never got here.  NAM, GFS and Euro were all too wet.  DCA ended with 1.02", BWI with 0.75" and IAD with 0.92".  GFS and Euro were closest (NAM was about 2 times those numbers), but they were still too wet.  Whether the dynamic situation near RIC robbed us of moisture or the storm tracked and developed too differently, I think that was bigger issue.  We knew surface temps would be above freezing, but figured with heavy precip, the profile would go isothermal right near 32F (much as it did on 1/26/2011) and we'd get plastered.  That is in fact exactly what happened west of RIC to folks like Midlo.  

 

The GFS had the best temp forecast but all the models were way too wet.  The GFS got up to 1.75 inches for DCA which was .75 heavier than forecast.  That also contributed to the temp model errors.  The NAM's QPF completely hosed its temps. 

 

Winterymix,  As for wish casting.  I don't think that was the problem. I think it was paying too much attention to the model forecasts. Lighter precip allowed the MArch sun to win big time. 

[WxUSAF]

I think it was paying too much attention to the model forecasts. Lighter precip allowed the MArch sun to win big time. 

Wes...that was certainly the case, but what frustrates me in this situation is that there were no apparent "red flags" that precip was going to be much lighter than forecast.  Euro was drier than the NAM for sure, and occasionally than the GFS (although I think they were pretty darn close as of 12z on Tuesday)...but nothing stood out to me as a potential red flag that we were going to get much less.  Not sure how much to believe the local Davis wx station near my house, but it only recorded 0.59".  It's plausible given BWI's 0.75".  If correct, that's much less than what even the Euro showed (0.8-0.9" IIRC).  Not to mention how crazy the short-range models were going with precip totals on the WAA part of the storm...

[flsch22]

not to digress too much but from discussion of yesterday's storm, but it reminds me of the Nov. 1987 storm where we managed to get heavy snow and high precip.rates overcoming marginal surface temperatures.  IMagine these were different set ups but any key differences that explain the differing outcomes?

[RodneyS]

I think it was a big bust but certainly not the biggest.

I agree -- those of us in the western suburbs got a good amount of snow (about six inches for me -- and one of the heaviest ever). There have been many prior times when the forecast for the entire DC metropolitan area was way off-base. What was unfortunate, however, was the National Weather Service clinging to its forecast for DC in the late morning. That reminded me of the old joke: "Who are you going to believe -- me or your lying eyes?"

[Bob Chill]

Temps were awful close to where they were supposed to be. I didn't hit 34 until mid afternoon. I was 33 at 9am when the only period of decent rates hit.

If you run the entire storm loop radar it becomes obvious that there were problems going on when the apparent super juiced waa slug fell to pieces over md. That messed with temps and also indicated that the deepening low near ric was trying to steal the show and it did. Had that slug produced the precip it was supposed to in md then temps wouldn't have been such a deal breaker.

The folks in nova that got the rates also got the accums. But it was such a small area. I stayed snow through mid afternoon but rates were never heavy enough and it was off and on the whole time.

I didn't expect to never go heavier than moderate snow and never expected to have occasional snow. We know how precip in these storms usually go. Solid shield of was that doesn't fall apart overhead. And when the low gets cranking the pivot happens and we get a decent period of mod-heavy precip with no breaks every 20 minutes.

Looking back now it's clear that the deepening of the surface low and convection over ric wasnt modeled perfectly. Those effects compounded the fact that we had temp issues and needed long duration heavy rates to come out a winner.

If it was cold enough it only would have been a snow total / precip total bust. I don't blame any forecasters. We all looked at the same stuff and it looked just right. When the waa moved through anf everybody flipped to snow right away it enforced the idea. Then things went awry. It won't be the last time.

I'm waiting for a massive reverse bust and I hope live long enough to see one.

[Terpeast]

I'm still reeling from how much of a disaster my forecast was for the DC area. I did fine in C VA, foothills and I-81, but it still hurts because the major population areas are the areas that really count. I've been wrong before, but this time was especially the biggest bust I've ever had. I still think that if se had a better source of cold air and we were a couple degrees lower, we would not have been robbed. There were red flags all over the place but I didn't pay as much attention to them as much as I should have.

[stormtracker]

Nope.... Genuinely sorry for 99% of you. A select few had it coming. Never had any animosity toward you or zwytz. No need to be an ass, Bob.

Who are the select few.  Go 'head, name 'em.

[stormtracker]

for me 3/5/01 is the day that will live forever in infamy. I wasn't on any wx boards then and had no idea how the storm could end up failing. at least this week I had some information on how it could disappoint.

This.

 

3/5/01 is still my worst nightmare.

[J.Mike]

I thinnk it was a big bust but certainly not the biggest.  The biggest was a winter storm warning that verified as sunny the next morning with no snow at all.  I don't remember the exact date but do remember the bust.   

 

I remember that as well. I believe it was New Year's Eve because the next day I was supposed to drive my folks over to Easton MD (across the Bay) and we canceled the trip because of the forecast. New Year's Day morning was bright and sunny.

[usedtobe]

Temps were awful close to where they were supposed to be. I didn't hit 34 until mid afternoon. I was 33 at 9am when the only period of decent rates hit.

If you run the entire storm loop radar it becomes obvious that there were problems going on when the apparent super juiced waa slug fell to pieces over md. That messed with temps and also indicated that the deepening low near ric was trying to steal the show and it did. Had that slug produced the precip it was supposed to in md then temps wouldn't have been such a deal breaker.

The folks in nova that got the rates also got the accums. But it was such a small area. I stayed snow through mid afternoon but rates were never heavy enough and it was off and on the whole time.

I didn't expect to never go heavier than moderate snow and never expected to have occasional snow. We know how precip in these storms usually go. Solid shield of was that doesn't fall apart overhead. And when the low gets cranking the pivot happens and we get a decent period of mod-heavy precip with no breaks every 20 minutes.

Looking back now it's clear that the deepening of the surface low and convection over ric wasnt modeled perfectly. Those effects compounded the fact that we had temp issues and needed long duration heavy rates to come out a winner.

If it was cold enough it only would have been a snow total / precip total bust. I don't blame any forecasters. We all looked at the same stuff and it looked just right. When the waa moved through anf everybody flipped to snow right away it enforced the idea. Then things went awry. It won't be the last time.

I'm waiting for a massive reverse bust and I hope live long enough to see one.

I think what happened in Richmond hurt us some and that we would have done better if we had been closer to the upper low or if the surface low had developed further to the east. 

[CheesyPoofs]

I remember that as well. I believe it was New Year's Eve because the next day I was supposed to drive my folks over to Easton MD (across the Bay) and we canceled the trip because of the forecast. New Year's Day morning was bright and sunny.

I believe 12/30/2000 was the date of the storm you guys are referring to.

[TalcottWx]

This one is the worst bust since I really understood anything about weather

[columbiawx]

for me 3/5/01 is the day that will live forever in infamy. I wasn't on any wx boards then and had no idea how the storm could end up failing. at least this week I had some information on how it could disappoint.

 

Agreed on 3/5/01. I remember talking with co-workers about a snow day being locked up, only to wake up (on a Monday morning, I believe) to nothing.

 

At least I got the day off work yesterday and got to build a snowman and go sledding in a couple inches of snow with my 4 year old. She's young enough to not understand the soul-crushing disappointment of a bust like this or, for that matter, what a real snowstorm actually looks like. 

[Don Cherry's Jacket]

So, the new normal will not be to close the government or schools until there's actually a lot of snow coming down.  This will mean that on occasion, as has happened from time to time, workers will be sent home mid-commute, or mid-morning.  And this will be the new normal until something bad happens like a school bus crash or another commute disaster, and then we'll go back to running from the shadow of a snowflake.  

 

OPM probably over-reacted as did DC and Arlington schools.  But for the larger counties like MoCo and Fairfax, probably the right call even though it was a total joke where I lived (McLean, about 200 yards from Arlington).

[RodneyS]

I believe 12/30/2000 was the date of the storm you guys are referring to.

I think that's right: "As much as 30 in (0.76 m) fell west of the New York City metropolitan region, which generally reported 10 to 16 in (0.25 to 0.41 m) of snow, making it the biggest snowstorm at the time since the North American blizzard of 1996. Washington, D.C. and Baltimore recorded little or no snowfall, while 10 in (25 cm) impacted Philadelphia." See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/December_2000_nor%27easter

[easternsnowman]

I'm not an expert on weather but perhaps the models have'nt considered the sun's strength which I believe was supposed to be at a peak in 2012 and 2013?

[MN Transplant]

I think this was a bigger bust than Boxing Day.  The model consensus was far poorer in advance of that storm and while things seemed to trend back in our favor, there were still some red flags.  Usually in big busts, the models catch on that something's about to go wrong in the 12-24 hours preceding the storm...they start trending away from big snows or something.  The fact that I went to bed at 10pm (2 hours before the snow started) and EVERY model had trended bigger and bigger with the snow right up until that time (including the short-range models which were going bonkers) was something I haven't experienced in recent memory. 

 

I don't remember details about March 2001...

 

12/26/10 hurt because everyone else cashed in, but I think it wasn't a surprise that it was a miss.  This one was bad because we all saw the precip totals and could rationalize the soundings, and as you said, the closer you got to the storm, the solution held, which gave everybody more confidence.

 

This doesn't really rank in my worst bust list, because 4" vs 8" is disappointing, but not that much of a bust.  Absolutely can understand the DC/MD feelings because that just plain sucks. 

[MN Transplant]

I'm not an expert on weather but perhaps the models have'nt considered the sun's strength which I believe was supposed to be at a peak in 2012 and 2013?

 

No.  The change in solar output due to the 11 year solar cycle is irrelevant to an individual system.

[Ji]

this was nothing close to the bust of March 2001. Its not even in the same galaxy. March 01 was suppose to feature 24-36 inches....a stalled system doing loop de loop. It was supposed to be the greatest snowstorm of all time.

 

This bust was a temp bust..the march 2001..was a storm bust...there was no storm!

[Deck Pic]

this was nothing close to the bust of March 2001. Its not even in the same galaxy. March 01 was suppose to feature 24-36 inches....a stalled system doing loop de loop. It was supposed to be the greatest snowstorm of all time.

 

This bust was a temp bust..the march 2001..was a storm bust...there was no storm!

 

it was localized...you got 6" so it was not as bad a bust for you...It is all subjective,...knowing what we know now as a community, we soul have sniffed out March 2001 much earlier....this one had the ULL passing 150 miles to our south...there were other reasons to be bearish, but we didnt need some ludicrous phase to work out like 2001

[BlizzardNole]

I'm glad someone started this thread so we can vent -- this is the worst I can remember too, since we had 8-12" predicted as it was starting. We got about 1.5" then rain. Plus it comes at the tail end of two horrific winters, and the fact that many people all around us got some decent snow this winter -- people close the west in Chrismas week; DE and southern NJ with that surprise clipper; even St Marys Co got 5" from one storm. Now west/central VA and even west of Richmond.

I just hope we warm way up now.

[Bob Chill]

Thankfully I had just moved back to md from co in 99. I was coming off a 7 year snow fix and the transition back to dc metro after living here for 20+ years before the move made me not care much about snow for a few years. Dec 00 and March 01 didn't even phase me. 02-03 hooked me right back into tracking dc snow and here we are 10 years later. 

 

This was definitely the biggest and most painful bust for me ever in the area. The reasons are pretty black and white:

 

1. Epic snow drought leading in

2. I spent way to much time thinking about it

3. We knew about temp problems but everything was going as planned when it was snowing as I went to sleep (radar looked sick too)

4. ULL and 850 we're prime spots and the ULL meant business

5. I could taste the trophy after running the marathon

6. I'm a  weenie

 

Boxing day was much much easier (1st winter after the cinderella story and christmas time is fun no matter what). Re-developers like that are only a lock in our area once they are re-developed. Doesn't take much to get hosed on the south end of re-development. If a weenie doesn't have that in the front of their mind leading in then I don't know what to say. 

[stormtracker]

March 2001 was a bust like no other.  It still makes me wince.    In the pit of my stomach, I felt sort of sick the day before.  It was beautiful out, sun was shining brightly....went to the grocery store and everyone was abuzz. Person came on the intercom mentioning to stock up for the great Blizzard on the way.

 

Then I got home and the horror began.   Snow accumulation forecasts started to drop and Topper Shutt came on and, against all other mets and forecasts, lowered his to 1 to 3 and said it probably wouldn't be a big deal.  Little did I know, he was still overdone.    I had the camera out taking before to compare to what was going to be amazing after shots.

 

It still hurts.

[Ji]

it was localized...you got 6" so it was not as bad a bust for you...It is all subjective,...knowing what we know now as a community, we soul have sniffed out March 2001 much earlier....this one had the ULL passing 150 miles to our south...there were other reasons to be bearish, but we didnt need some ludicrous phase to work out like 2001

2001 though had us in the 24 plus snow 48 hours before the storm. Even 24 hours out...it was still a huge snow and we had tracked this storm for 2 weeks. It had all epicness written all over it. Paul Kocin maps on Saturday morning...storm was suppose to start that night had us in the 2 foot range. I had rented 5 movies......it was in severe depression for weeks after the bust. This one is run of the mill bust

[Deck Pic]

This is pathetic.

 

not as pathetic as your awful map

 

[Ji]

March 2001 was a bust like no other.  It still makes me wince.    In the pit of my stomach, I felt sort of sick the day before.  It was beautiful out, sun was shining brightly....went to the grocery store and everyone was abuzz. Person came on the intercom mentioning to stock up for the great Blizzard on the way.

 

Then I got home and the horror began.   Snow accumulation forecasts started to drop and Topper Shutt came on and, against all other mets and forecasts, lowered his to 1 to 3 and said it probably wouldn't be a big deal.  Little did I know, he was still overdone.    I had the camera out taking before to compare to what was going to be amazing after shots.

 

It still hurts.

agree 100%. i was with you for that bust. It was brutal to the nth degree

[Ji]

not as pathetic as your awful map

 

that map isnt bad except for one or two counties and DC

[Bob Chill]

Man, the way you guys talk about mar 01 makes me want to return my weenie tag and go sober. I paid little attention to it thank god. But at least now I get to chew on lemons and wash down with white vinegar with this bust for the next whatever # of years until the next one. 

[Deck Pic]

that map isnt bad except for one or two counties and DC

 

it isn't that bad in the context of other maps...But sean had extreme prescience and used his head and had sniffed out what no other man was able and yet still put the precise places where the bust was the absolute worst in a 4-8" contour...So just exactly how idiotic does that make him, given his brilliance in knowing the storm would bust 48 hours out?

[Ji]

Man, the way you guys talk about mar 01 makes me want to return my weenie tag and go sober. I paid little attention to it thank god. But at least now I get to chew on lemons and wash down with white vinegar with this bust for the next whatever # of years until the next one. 

One met in Philly got death threats after the bust. not sure how you didnt pay attention to a storm that had modeled a 970 low stalled at the VA capes:)