Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 UPTON says the HRRR is rocking it. Joe's favorite model. be lots of surprises on the cape in the morning that is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The first 1.50" or so is snow at KTAN on the NAM...but yeah,the looks spurious at 850 Yup there is a small area of interior, elevated SE Mass and maybe NRI that gets hit hard on the NAM. But even in this jackpot area I would knock off 30% of the NAM QPF and use an 8:1 ratio. So my estimate would yield a jackpot of around 8-10" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Wow, you've been poo-pooing on ALL regions. The Euro, GFS, and GGEM were all grazers. I think you're overstating the model QPF. Regardless, it was light QPF over a 12-24 hours... rain or non-accumulating snow. Earlier NAM runs and the SREF were the only models with heavy QPF further NW with the coastal. I was very confident this would not verify. In my opinion, none of the globals supported 1-3" in your area at 12z this afternoon. There is still a shot at a light to mod snowfall on thurs night/friday. The NAM is almost certainly excessive, but everything shows at least a few tenths with this feature. Surface temps will still be marginal outside the hilltowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 UPTON says the HRRR is rocking it. Joe's favorite model. be lots of surprises on the cape in the morning that is for sure. Yup, it's the only thing they didn't toss. Radar is looking better, moving north slowly but moving. Maybe we get lucky? Not expecting anything more than a coating, anything more than that tonight is a win. 3-6" is my goal for tomorrow, verify 3", and I'm a happy man, anything less than that, and this storm was a bust. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Just to demonstrate what that band does...HRRR uses it to bang out the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Apologies for going OT but all the s**t being thrown at the NAM, GFS and NCEP in general reminds me that it should not be a surprise to anybody. They had major system failure back on December 26 and have not recovered their systems yet. It should be embarrasing to them, really. As somebody who works in IT, if I could not recover my systems by this time, I'd be fired. It's not the reason why the models are junk, it's more so to expectations... if they can't get thier systems recovered, how can we expect a usable model? Just my 2 cents. Now, let it snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 WELL that was fun. Until the RGEM stays the course it's just a run of the NAM and not terribly helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Just looking closely at the Euro data. Down around DC and Balt it consistently showed 2m temps warming on strong easterly flow for the duration of their heavy precip. This verified extremely well and IMO was a big factor that accounted for the big bust down there with non-accumulating snowfall and lots of rain despite nice cold 850 temps. The areas further west in VA were well modeled to have lower 2m temps and thus they saw the big accumulations. In contrast for SNE, the Euro has us with NE flow shifting more northerly as the heavy snow rotates in for eastern areas, and a corresponding drop to 31 or 32 degrees at 2m. If the euro is right this will be a big positive bust (assuming it's right on QPF) for even inside of 128. It becomes much more borderline in SE MA and especially down around PYM so Rollo is definitely appropriately raising the BL flags down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Apologies for going OT but all the s**t being thrown at the NAM, GFS and NCEP in general reminds me that it should not be a surprise to anybody. They had major system failure back on December 26 and have not recovered their systems yet. It should be embarrasing to them, really. As somebody who works in IT, if I could not recover my systems by this time, I'd be fired. It's not the reason why the models are junk, it's more so to expectations... if they can't get thier systems recovered, how can we expect a usable model? Just my 2 cents. Now, let it snow! My guess is that a server crashing has no bearing on the source code of a weather model. My 2 cents. But I agree yes they are crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 SPC WRF is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The Euro, GFS, and GGEM were all grazers. I think you're overstating the model QPF. Regardless, it was light QPF over a 12-24 hours... rain or non-accumulating snow. Earlier NAM runs and the SREF were the only models with heavy QPF further NW with the coastal. I was very confident this would not verify. In my opinion, none of the globals supported 1-3" in your area at 12z this afternoon. There is still a shot at a light to mod snowfall on thurs night/friday. The NAM is almost certainly excessive, but everything shows at least a few tenths with this feature. Surface temps will still be marginal outside the hilltowns. Now There is a Downer and Bear. If talking about SEMA/RI/Bos. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I'm not a total Debbie on the QPF. I just hope temps cooperate. There are two issues people are getting confused about. Temps and QPF. I do worry more about the QPF since temps will be partially governed by that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 SPC WRF is interesting. You got a link for that? I lost mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 If you live in ORH..clearly temps are not the worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Just looking closely at the Euro data. Down around DC and Balt it consistently showed 2m temps warming on strong easterly flow for the duration of their heavy precip. This verified extremely well and IMO was a big factor that accounted for the big bust down there with non-accumulating snowfall and lots of rain despite nice cold 850 temps. The areas further west in VA were well modeled to have lower 2m temps and thus they saw the big accumulations. In contrast for SNE, the Euro has us with NE flow shifting more northerly as the heavy snow rotates in for eastern areas, and a corresponding drop to 31 or 32 degrees at 2m. If the euro is right this will be a big positive bust (assuming it's right on QPF) for even inside of 128. It becomes much more borderline in SE MA and especially down around PYM so Rollo is definitely appropriately raising the BL flags down there. Yeah, agreed. I've never seen this posted prior, RAP acc snowfall. Just for giggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 You got a link for that? I lost mine. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/ Sometimes you have to substitute "00" or "12" in the URL because it defaults to one or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Just looking closely at the Euro data. Down around DC and Balt it consistently showed 2m temps warming on strong easterly flow for the duration of their heavy precip. This verified extremely well and IMO was a big factor that accounted for the big bust down there with non-accumulating snowfall and lots of rain despite nice cold 850 temps. The areas further west in VA were well modeled to have lower 2m temps and thus they saw the big accumulations. In contrast for SNE, the Euro has us with NE flow shifting more northerly as the heavy snow rotates in for eastern areas, and a corresponding drop to 31 or 32 degrees at 2m. If the euro is right this will be a big positive bust (assuming it's right on QPF) for even inside of 128. It becomes much more borderline in SE MA and especially down around PYM so Rollo is definitely appropriately raising the BL flags down there. I remember seeing like 36-37F for DC on the Euro the last couple runs or so before it hit...and I ifugred it was just a shade warm at the sfc, but it turned out to be accurate....interestingly it was warmer up in NE MD then C VA...I couldn't figure that but it nailed that part. Totally opposite thermal profiles for SNE on the Euro...its very cold...lets hope it has this down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 NAM is pretty meaningless in and of itself. RGEM is coming in now, if we're going to see a bust out it'll be from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Alright GFS - what's your come back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 This is cold aloft. Dry adiabatic to 950, but if we had lift and moisture to work with...snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 This is cold aloft. Dry adiabatic to 950, but if we had lift and moisture to work with...snow. CHH.gif Good sounding to show how the easterly flow with that sounding is helping generate these instability snow bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I really don't know what to think here...I wish we had a good antecedent airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I really don't know what to think here...I wish we had a good antecedent airmass. BOS is tough to forecast for in these...the high position is sometimes a good thing for BOS on these marginal airmass events. That sneaky Quebec high supplying dry air to wetbulb-cool temps throughout the event. Ovbiously though you'll want at least moderate precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 RUC has some serious pummeling at 6am tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I really don't know what to think here...I wish we had a good antecedent airmass. It's a mess to forecast. High impact even with no impact along the coast, airport delays etc. I hate storms that require waiting they too often break bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 BOS is tough to forecast for in these...the high position is sometimes a good thing for BOS on these marginal airmass events. That sneaky Quebec high supplying dry air to wetbulb-cool temps throughout the event. Ovbiously though you'll want at least moderate precip. I love HP..you know me...but I don't know how much moisture makes it in here. It does have a bit of a Feb 99 look to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 HRRR continues to ramp up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 RGEM seems a tad late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 It seems like if you want the NAM extreme qpf amounts, you have to take the NAM thermal boundary with it....which means some of it is rain. Probably both are overdone though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 RGEM seems a tad late. in coming out, or for the precip? if it's the former, not surprised, they have been running late recently, GGEM was like an hour late last night. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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