ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Over 3" of qpf and counting in SE MA by 15z Friday on the NAM...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 If the NAM is anywhere near correct, my prediction from 24 hours ago would be spot-on and messenger would have some 'splainin to do. To bad it's the nam. I've explained more than just about anyone else, run to run for days about why I discount some models, hug others. Have jumped from different models at different times, and I tossed the NCEP guidance when it was at its peak for a crushing blow. I have no idea what you're talking about with the NAM, nor do I care beyond the basics because the inverted trough on the NAM is likely to be too far SW. Then you must have forgot when I said I liked the areas you outlined earlier. I just don't see big amounts in ern mass...like these 12"+ amounts, but I could be wrong. Oh I know, believe me I'm a little bummed too but I knew going in days ago I wasn't going to do well in this setup. But, the I95 corridor could be in for a smokeshow. Will too, and maybe Ray will be the sniper in the woods with some big totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 NAM says snow forever. The storm is basically off the grid on 12z Friday and its still dumping. Seriously. This is broken right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 We may as well start a thread now for Will's pictures. You just know the back edge of that band is going to dump in the colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Bob may end up getting smoked in Taunton...that's a big bust spot...and it think its going to bust positive. I don't see how the ECMWF is going to be wrong there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Hard to follow the analysis from some comments. Guess most derived from MBY and the complexity of what is actually occuring. Hard to grasp every model is going to bust and kind of takes the fun out of the board. Usually one model gets it almost right and sticks to within a ballpark to verification. I'm lost trying. Most storms one can narrow down to a ~3" figure. Really not a shock if the jackpot is less than 8" or more than 24". Trending to the 8" admittedly. I would really like to see this pound into submission the pissant and whoa is me who time after time sing the same tune. This forum is interactive and supposed to be fun. Umm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 NECP should be ashamed of the NAM, it just shifted literally 200 miles at zero hours before the storm. What a catastrophic failure on that model... -skisheep Well you probably should not have been dry humping it when all other non-meso guidance kept the precip field mostly offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Bob may end up getting smoked in Taunton...that's a big bust spot...and it think its going to bust positive. I don't see how the ECMWF is going to be wrong there. What's the difference for KTAN in QPF between the GFS and the NAM - 2.5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 What's the difference for KTAN in QPF between the GFS and the NAM - 2.5"? Yes. I'm tossing the GFS...Euro and the ensembles have crushed that area two runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The GFS should be interesting tonight, hopefully it comes back to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Bob may end up getting smoked in Taunton...that's a big bust spot...and it think its going to bust positive. I don't see how the ECMWF is going to be wrong there. This would be one for the textbooks and one for the Euro wall of fame. GGEM wouldn't have been bad either. I'd like to see the Goofus come in similar and the RGEM too, just a few more hours. Hard to follow the analysis from some comments. Guess most derived from MBY and the complexity of what is actually occuring. Hard to grasp every model is going to bust and kind of takes the fun out of the board. Usually one model gets it almost right and sticks to within a ballpark to verification. I'm lost trying. Most storms one can narrow down to a ~3" figure. Really not a shock if the jackpot is less than 8" or more than 24". Trending to the 8" admittedly. I would really like to see this pound into submission the pissant and whoa is me who time after time sing the same tune. This forum is interactive and supposed to be fun. Umm? There's a huge range here. I'm not entirely grasping the attitude here today. I fully understand what Eduggs was raising earlier and appreciate the way he did it. The rest...not sure. Well you probably should not have been dry humping it when all other non-meso guidance kept the precip field mostly offshore. I was having some fun there to start, the Euro did such a good job at 0z as those maps I posted showed...not expecting major changes. This run of the NAM is the Euro, but with the NAM pinache for excessive QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I was having some fun there to start, the Euro did such a good job at 0z as those maps I posted showed...not expecting major changes. This run of the NAM is the Euro, but with the NAM pinache for excessive QPF. And the fooked up thermal profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Nam sucks. But verbatim it would actually give us a decent amount of snow since the bl is euro esque. But the model is dogsh*t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Ray's area in NE MA could be a sneaky spot tomorrow night as the firehose is pivoted nortth before sliding back SW as the lakes shortwave fujiwaras with the ULL. They may do pretty well for a 6-10 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Regardless of whether this ends as boom or bust...what a weird system this is and has been on the models. Just a really bizarre setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 And the fooked up thermal profiles. I'm holding onto the worst case scenario like grim death. I get porked so often on temps I just have a lot of sensitivity towards sneaky warmth as it pertains to the guys to the west. realistically it doesn't often get beyond about Rte 24 at the height. NAM clown map for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The 850 frontogenesis and 850-250 divergence are very impressive from SRI to mid cape, this is rotating north. Might be some surprises tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Yes. I'm tossing the GFS...Euro and the ensembles have crushed that area two runs in a row. This may be one of those deals where the "jackpot" follows 495 towards Worcester but for different reasons. South of...say Wrentham due to moisture, but near you because of elevation. Then you have Sharon, Walpole, Foxboro that have the weenie 200-400' elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Well you probably should not have been dry humping it when all other non-meso guidance kept the precip field mostly offshore. Huh? GFS was .35", EURO the same, GGEM .5" or so, RGEM .4" or so, SREF's .5". All would have verified the 1-3" that I was calling for tonight, I'm not dryhumping anything. Literally every single model busted bad here, the NAM was just the worst bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Over 3" of qpf and counting in SE MA by 15z Friday on the NAM...lol Verbatim almost none of it is snow there. But I don't buy the temp profiles. Too wet and too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 This may be one of those deals where the "jackpot" follows 495 towards Worcester but for different reasons. South of...say Wrentham due to moisture, but near you because of elevation. Then you have Sharon, Walpole, Foxboro that have the weenie 200-400' elevation. I still think Sutton. They never jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Huh? GFS was .35", EURO the same, GGEM .5" or so, RGEM .4" or so, SREF's .5". All would have verified the 1-3" that I was calling for tonight, I'm not dryhumping anything. Literally every single model busted bad here, the NAM was just the worst bust. Overnight FTM I don't see that the Euro gave you much, I see some .01 to .05, and maybe one .1 for part of the state, that was it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Verbatim almost none of it is snow there. But I don't buy the temp profiles. Too wet and too warm. The first 1.50" or so is snow at KTAN on the NAM...but yeah,the looks spurious at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Overnight FTM I don't see that the Euro gave you much, I see some .01 to .05, and maybe one .1 for part of the state, that was it. It was .32" for NYC according to the text outputs, and similar for BDR. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 4km NAM hints at that crushing line of precip with some astounding rates as it crosses the coast. Would be 1-1.85" for most all of us before it got about 0c at 8h. And then there's another 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 This may be one of those deals where the "jackpot" follows 495 towards Worcester but for different reasons. South of...say Wrentham due to moisture, but near you because of elevation. Then you have Sharon, Walpole, Foxboro that have the weenie 200-400' elevation. Scott whats your current thinking for our area? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Scott whats your current thinking for our area? Thanks. I think 3-5 could do it for you, but the bust potential is high. If this comes in steadier and heavier than possibly double those amounts. However, I don't have the stones to go for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The 850 frontogenesis and 850-250 divergence are very impressive from SRI to mid cape, this is rotating north. Might be some surprises tonight. Yeah not bad. I still am sticking with C-2" tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Huh? GFS was .35", EURO the same, GGEM .5" or so, RGEM .4" or so, SREF's .5". All would have verified the 1-3" that I was calling for tonight, I'm not dryhumping anything. Literally every single model busted bad here, the NAM was just the worst bust. The Euro, GFS, and GGEM were all grazers. I think you're overstating the model QPF. Regardless, it was light QPF over a 12-24 hours... rain or non-accumulating snow. Earlier NAM runs and the SREF were the only models with heavy QPF further NW with the coastal. I was very confident this would not verify. In my opinion, none of the globals supported 1-3" in your area at 12z this afternoon. There is still a shot at a light to mod snowfall on thurs night/friday. The NAM is almost certainly excessive, but everything shows at least a few tenths with this feature. Surface temps will still be marginal outside the hilltowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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