Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 With the NAM gone completely haywire on its thermal profiles this winter, its almost like it has no use anymore in the winter...it only use is in convection season. Inside of 48 hours, you would probably save yourself a ton of headaches if you just looked at the ECMWF. The thing is we can mentally adjust for the craziness that is the GFS. Because it should initialize the 8h jet tonight and the convection has fired it 'should' buy a clue. But at least it's kind of predictable no matter how much eduggs wants to argue with me over it The NAM..wtf. How can it be too cold 4 decrees down there, too warm probably 2-3 up here run after run for days? How is that even possible with sounding data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 When KTAN has -3C at 900mb and just above 0C at 850mb...NAM thermals tossed. That doesn't happen in this setup, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 If this were a month ago, I would lock in 10-12+. It's March 6th not April 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 If this were a month ago, I would lock in 10-12+. How do you feel about Boston's chances of overperforming? I know you've certainly got your caution flags, but it seems like a tiny alteration at verification time could be the difference between 2" or 8+" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The NAM's a very freaky model..... The kind you don't take home to Euro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 It's March 6th not April 6th. 34F snow won't cut it during the day here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The NAM's a very freaky model..... The kind you don't take home to Euro.... Ok. That's funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 man the tone in here would make you think it's going to rain buckets.. NAM still hits EMA I guess.. and the TWC still has me on alert.. so it's all good!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 34F snow won't cut it during the day here. With 1-2" an hour it surely will, especially just away from the water in those favored spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 How do you feel about Boston's chances of overperforming? I know you've certainly got your caution flags, but it seems like a tiny alteration at verification time could be the difference between 2" or 8+" It would take an RPM style firehose. I don't know if the big moisture is able to come in and allow us to rip our way past 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 When KTAN has -3C at 900mb and just above 0C at 850mb...NAM thermals tossed. That doesn't happen in this setup, lol. It rips the 850 line way too far inland with the inverted trough. I just don't see that happening. My 850s are down to -7C right now and I don't see them warming much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 With 1-2" an hour it surely will, especially just away from the water in those favored spots. When will that happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 NAM goes bonkers with the trough, despite a total whiff on the coastal, we still are over 1.25" QPF from tomorrow night and still snowing. Honestly I'd rather have this scenario, if the NAM verifies(fat chance), it actually should be legit SN/SN+, and should accumulate well, as opposed to the light stuff from tonight... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 GFS and NAM are literally opposites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Scott this is the Ron Jeremy firehose....look at what it did earlier down in the Delmarva and it's coming this way later. That's an epic band it's going to march NW through eastern MA like Patton through the desert Thursday. Yes, there will be rain closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Rollo I'm talking here, not above 400'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 NAM goes bonkers with the trough, despite a total whiff on the coastal, we still are over 1.25" QPF from tomorrow night and still snowing. Honestly I'd rather have this scenario, if the NAM verifies(fat chance), it actually should be legit SN/SN+, and should accumulate well, as opposed to the light stuff from tonight... -skisheep NAM is prob too far SW with the inverted trough...the Euro has had it north for a couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 NRI to TAN look more like the place to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Huge sucker-hole on the NAM. Hard to be bullish outside SE MA. Looks like such a fickle set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 When will that happen? During the 6, 3 hour periods where it gives eastern MA .25" or greater. We get that you don't think this is going to be anything but a few mangled flakes. Sun angle, melting polar cap, lots of issues. But let's not act like interior SE MA/the sw burbs of boston aren't in line for a croaking. Every model pretty much shows it, the only thing that will deny that is if for some reason we get a real warm push. EDIT. Scott you live on the water, welcome to my world and Phil's for the entire winter. But that doesn't take away from what may be about to happen to our west. Nothing we can do about our proximity to the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 NAM is prob too far SW with the inverted trough...the Euro has had it north for a couple runs. Total weenie solution with the inv trough and copious QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 It would take an RPM style firehose. I don't know if the big moisture is able to come in and allow us to rip our way past 8". Yeah fair enough, seems like it's a lot "easier" for this to crap the bed than deliver the dream solutions for us. I don't know, I get a vibe this could be a great positive bust, but that could easily be the weenie talking lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I'm taking the NAM home. I don't care if she slept with everyone else in the bar already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 LOL--love my NAM qpf. Really bummed I won't be here for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 If the NAM is anywhere near correct, my prediction from 24 hours ago would be spot-on and messenger would have some 'splainin to do. To bad it's the nam. Could this be another storm where the system phase-type changes, sort of what happened a few weeks ago? jmo this will probably come down to a pivoting inverted trough or etc. meso feature to get the job done (verify those already lofty forecasted #s and expectations), it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 During the 6, 3 hour periods where it gives eastern MA .25" or greater. We get that you don't think this is going to be anything but a few mangled flakes. Sun angle, melting polar cap, lots of issues. But let's not act like interior SE MA/the sw burbs of boston aren't in line for a croaking. Every model pretty much shows it, the only thing that will deny that is if for some reason we get a real warm push.. Then you must have forgot when I said I liked the areas you outlined earlier. I just don't see big amounts in ern mass...like these 12"+ amounts, but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 NAM is prob too far SW with the inverted trough...the Euro has had it north for a couple runs. Yeah, I'm not expecting it to verify, it's totally clueless... Still would be fun though! Do you think 3-6" with the trough has a chance here, or am I being hopelessly optimistic? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Yeah, I'm not expecting it to verify, it's totally clueless... Still would be fun though! Do you think 3-6" with the trough has a chance here, or am I being hopelessly optimistic? -skisheep Euro had the low end of that there probably...so yeah, its possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Yeah fair enough, seems like it's a lot "easier" for this to crap the bed than deliver the dream solutions for us. I don't know, I get a vibe this could be a great positive bust, but that could easily be the weenie talking lol. It certainly could be, but I'd like to see that lakes shortwave phase and pull this more NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Lol at the NAM 09 Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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