Brian5671 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Seeing the radar tonight reminds me of Sandy with the echos racing westbound just south of LI....we only got .33 in the end with Sandy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 messenger WRT fire hose . http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/rich/NAM/ you can see the nose of the 850 inlow is 6 S.D (WOW) just off E NJ coast right now (7pm 0z thurs) on sref guidance if you click fwd in time after selecting 850 inflow and the model of your choice.....for sref's for example you can see the nose of that anomalous 850 inflow moving NNE to just off MVY/ACK/CC from 7am to like 4pm when its at it's northern most spot... at 5 standard deviations and it keeps that nose of anomalous 850 inflow bombing mvy/ack areas from tomm am to fri am at 5 stanard deviations! now i'm not sure where to look to see where the firehose is / and it's movement....is correlated in any fashion (METS?) with the 850 inflow nose. it appears to be! the NAM gets this nose of the 5 SD anomaly further north faster by like 1-3 am over the islands/CC and pivots this up to CC and SE mass by 7am ....it develops another little nose over boston and west around 10pm tommorrow into the overnite.. so like 8pm to 4 am or so over boston west general area n/s 20 miles or so. the GFS however go back to the 850 inflow ...the nose of the 5 SD area is well east of new england and doesn't really hit us the 18z run was closest but not that close lol i think that needs to be watch'd nam/sref's show nose of maximum 850 inflow crushing SE mass up to boston area (at times) i think this represents potential fire hose placement best it correlates to what you point out on WV GFS shows this where it is ....and going ENE and well SE of us. i'm glued to this graphic later tonite and it's updates. I think what is important to note there is that the GFS was playing catchup all day with that jet event in tight on the Delmarva. As you noted the 18z got a little more of a clue but lost it within 6 hours only to have it appear like magic SE of cape cod again later tonight. We toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I think what is important to note there is that the GFS was playing catchup all day with that jet event in tight on the Delmarva. As you noted the 18z got a little more of a clue but lost it within 6 hours only to have it appear like magic SE of cape cod again later tonight. We toss. Triple posting? That's new.... Anyway, watervapor loop is interesting. Really getting some precip going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 max snow so far w/ this system http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/products/?prod=PNS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 max snow so far w/ this system http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/products/?prod=PNS Huge snowstorm for many. I wouldn't really kill a lot of time waiting for that graphic to update, just hit refresh ever 30 minutes on the water vapor. IF that jet shoots straight E to the whales you'll know the conservative GFS was right. If it builds up towards us in the next several hours you'll know the GFS sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Triple posting? That's new.... Anyway, watervapor loop is interesting. Really getting some precip going yes it is....lets suck in some energy from somewhere....old ULL energy or great lakes SW ....something...have a whale fart and wobble the ULL north more that is powder keg spining to our south....with 5 standar deviation easterly inflow at 850 working it's way NNE in time. (i hope) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Huge snowstorm for many. I wouldn't really kill a lot of time waiting for that graphic to update, just hit refresh ever 30 minutes on the water vapor. IF that jet shoots straight E to the whales you'll know the conservative GFS was right. If it builds up towards us in the next several hours you'll know the GFS sucks. lol i'm not sittin on it...just will check back w/ new sref's. 0z nam ....0z gfs in time. heading out for "date nite" . hope some fat flakes are flying in danvers. i want that 850 nose to sting us badly. something anything please pin wheel or stretch that ull more NNE than model'd on the putrid gfs ...it's been leading the way...i want a nice nw shift at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Um, let's not forget facts...big snowstorm for mountainous areas. I don't think any of those big totals are below 1k, if not 2k. Could be wrong, not familiar with the locales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 lol i'm not sittin on it...just will check back w/ new sref's. 0z nam ....0z gfs in time. heading out for "date nite" . hope some fat flakes are flying in danvers. i want that 850 nose to sting us badly. something anything please pin wheel or stretch that ull more NNE than model'd on the putrid gfs ...it's been leading the way...i want a nice nw shift at 0z. The GFS lost track of that jet pretty much right now. You can see the WV is complex. we've got that lobe rotating around, maybe that was the confusion But, we don't want to see the water vapor suddenly pulse down or we're in trouble. If anything it looks like it's loading up. I'm terrified of temps more than anything else. we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I'm terrified of temps more than anything else. we'll see. Same. Id like to be about 10 miles north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Its going to be a close call here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Um, let's not forget facts...big snowstorm for mountainous areas. I don't think any of those big totals are below 1k, if not 2k. Could be wrong, not familiar with the locales. Probably also shouldn't forget they are 750 miles further south and much closer to a much warmer source of water on east winds That said surface temps are warm here. It's 33-38 well inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 So disappointed for the DC folks. We've been there and may again in 24 hours. Does suck for them. I won't be there there in 24 hours, though. One needs to have an expectation to be ruined for that. I have none. That said, the wind is really ripping. Will be a bouncy takeoff tomorrow morning at BDL. Too bad I'll miss the snow tomorrow night. Oh, well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 SREFs look east of 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 So this is it. If the nam and co are about to fold we will see it collapse this band south of kokx early in the run. Doesn't seem likely but one never knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 nothing out of the ordinary on the srefs. still look good on 850s and precip. hit the eastern areas good. nice downslope/shadowing signal in ct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 So this is it. If the nam and co are about to fold we will see it collapse this band south of kokx early in the run. Doesn't seem likely but one never knows This thing had more red flags than any storm I can remember. Hopefully Ginxy poo can kiss my wrist after always giving me crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 We won't be with the DC crew because we are not expecting like they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 SREFs look east of 15z. Using 36 at 21z and 24 qpf vs 42 from 15z looks about the same with another sd over ema Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 We won't be with the DC crew because we are not expecting like they did. The weird thing is that parts of RIC got pummeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 What am I missing? 24 hour qpf on the 15z centered at 42h 24 hour qpf on the 21z centered at 36 Virtually identical... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The weird thing is that parts of RIC got pummeled. Because they were in the firehose even though it was like 0.1C for 100mb. Just tremendous lift. Kinda like nrn Long Island during the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Probably also shouldn't forget they are 750 miles further south and much closer to a much warmer source of water on east winds That said surface temps are warm here. It's 33-38 well inland I think that's a little less important when we have east winds and it's Spring. Not at all totally dismissing the latitude thing, but clearly needs to be revisited. (esp. since Richmond beat DC? c'mon, that's insanity in itself, esp. given the overall "modeling") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 If anything those maps signal a bigger threat not worse?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Because they were in the firehose even though it was like 0.1C for 100mb. Just tremendous lift. Kinda like nrn Long Island during the blizzard. I thought that lift would translate northward to DC but I guess the ESE tug on the closed low prevented that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Advancing 6 hours its essentially the same in the east hair north with the 1" line by Jerry. Snow hole over Kev and the river valley. I don't see any change really. At least not in principle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 NAM is way south for tonight already through 7hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Well Gulf of Maine is colder than he gulf of Delaware. You guys might have a better chance, I'd still be wary though and take the warmer solutions seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Advancing 6 hours its essentially the same in the east hair north with the 1" line by Jerry. Snow hole over Kev and the river valley. I don't see any change really. At least not in principle. Its meh dude. This storm sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Nam going to miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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