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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part IV


Typhoon Tip

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The same reason Staffordville always has more than me..Farther north ..and like you posted yesterdy he was in the band longer up there..so it makes sense there was more each town north right?

 

I think it evened out in the long run because some of the heavier stuff clipped Coventry. Just bustin' enjoy the limp elbow for the next year...I have no idea why you don't snowblow.

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I think it evened out in the long run because some of the heavier stuff clipped Coventry. Just bustin' enjoy the limp elbow for the next year...I have no idea why you don't snowblow.

Yeah it's sore today. it's never gotten better really since the Blizzard. the wrist and forearm did..but elbow always sore..manageable..but noticeable

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Yeah it's sore today. it's never gotten better really since the Blizzard. the wrist and forearm did..but elbow always sore..manageable..but noticeable

 

You gotta be careful with that. The last thing you want is a gimp arm. You always preach about rest and what not, but then go out and sacrifice your arm for snowbanks..lol.

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You gotta be careful with that. The last thing you want is a gimp arm. You always preach about rest and what not, but then go out and sacrifice your arm for snowbanks..lol.

Lol. I just can't give up my shoveling. Not yet. Maybe when I hit 50 . It hurts most when I straighten it out it squeeze something like a handshake or opening a jar of something
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Lol. I just can't give up my shoveling. Not yet. Maybe when I hit 50 . It hurts most when I straighten it out it squeeze something like a handshake or opening a jar of something

Are you sure this condition is caused by excessive shoveling?

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Lol. I just can't give up my shoveling. Not yet. Maybe when I hit 50 . It hurts most when I straighten it out it squeeze something like a handshake or opening a jar of something

 

But what about running? I mean that's going to have an effect on that too I would imagine. Just be careful.

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  1. Blue Hill Obs- the storm total snowfall of 29.8" is the 3rd greatest snowstorm in March and 5th greatest for any month in the 128 yr. record

     
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  2.  
  3. For Blue Hill Obs, this is the 1st time that 2 snowfalls of 25" or more have occurred in a single winter season in 128 years.

     
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  4. The seasonal snow total at Blue Hill Obs. is now over 91 inches.and this is not even in the top ten.

     
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  1. Blue Hill Obs- the storm total snowfall of 29.8" is the 3rd greatest snowstorm in March and 5th greatest for any month in the 128 yr. record

     
     
    It would be interesting if accurate snowfall records were recorded in hilly areas around Boston.  I bet places like Arlington heights or the hills of Newton record substantially higher amounts than areas just 200-250  feet lower in elevation.  
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I like how Kevin was fascinated with this storm. Usually he only posts about CT weather. Good to see him posting about my favorite place a few

miles away.

I like all wx in New England. ESP Sne. It's all fascinating to me. What I don't like is the fetish some have for Eastern Mass or ENE. There's a lot of folks that only talk about that area. And yes , elevation FTW. If you move move way up and way in
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I like all wx in New England. ESP Sne. It's all fascinating to me. What I don't like is the fetish some have for Eastern Mass or ENE. There's a lot of folks that only talk about that area. And yes , elevation FTW. If you move move way up and way in

Well many of us live here. But pot-kettle-black there chief. How many times have you thrown out hills FTW? That's a fetish if I've ever saw one lol.

MQE blows the doors off you when it comes to weather. There isn't an exception.

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Well many of us live here. But pot-kettle-black there chief. How many times have you thrown out hills FTW? That's a fetish if I've ever saw one lol.

MQE blows the doors off you when it comes to weather. There isn't an exception.

We all have a IMBY fetish. There's no denying it and I think we all admit it. But the disco should and many times does, include all areas. It would save folks like Pickles asking 30 questions. Who ever said it isn't a wild place for wx? When you are the highest spot by a large margin for hundreds if miles around that's what happens. It's a mini version of MT Washington. But hills are good regardless
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Would love to hear detailed model verification / post-mortem based on this map, since I sadly was out-of-commission for the leadup.

 

Some cursory thoughts:

- As in the blizzard, NAM excessive qpf turned out not so crazy. 

- Euro/CMC combo latched on by d4 and for the most part didn't waiver. 

- And I'm not certain, but JMA may have done better than the GFS.

- The Rollo/ORH combo was one of the surest predictors. You owned this storm.

- Finally, CTBlizz's snow magnet this winter is legit... I don't remember that jackpot on any guidance.

 

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Would love to hear detailed model verification / post-mortem based on this map, since I sadly was out-of-commission for the leadup.

 

Some cursory thoughts:

- As in the blizzard, NAM excessive qpf turned out not so crazy. 

- Euro/CMC combo latched on by d4 and for the most part didn't waiver. 

- And I'm not certain, but JMA may have done better than the GFS.

- The Rollo/ORH combo was one of the surest predictors. You owned this storm.

- Finally, CTBlizz's snow magnet this winter is legit... I don't remember that jackpot on any guidance.

 

attachicon.gifStormTotalFinalMap.png

 

 

 

Yeah not a single model had that, and frankly, you wouldn't expect it based on the synoptic setup...but there's always surprises in every storm. The interior SE MA and ORH jackpot fit the setup of this storm extremely well...the Tolland county extension was definitely some mesoscale thing much like the RI snowhole. I don't think Kevin is complaining about getting lucky on that one though.

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I'm still skeptical of Blue Hill's total. I know how they measure up there. I think they are assuming they received a specific amount of precipitation and applied a 9:1 ratio calculation to it based on the snowfall liquid ratio that they measured on the boards. Reason I say that is because the observer up there measured 22" initially. I get the idea of compaction but if nobody was physically there measuring during the storm there is no "official" way of knowing. I am not saying that they didn't jackpot at, or near 29", because they are close to the coast, but also 635 feet up, which makes a world of a difference, but I am just skeptical imo.

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I'm still skeptical of Blue Hill's total. I know how they measure up there. I think they are assuming they received a specific amount of precipitation and applied a 9:1 ratio calculation to it based on the snowfall liquid ratio that they measured on the boards. Reason I say that is because the observer up there measured 22" initially. I get the idea of compaction but if nobody was physically there measuring during the storm there is no "official" way of knowing. I am not saying that they didn't jackpot at, or near 29", because they are close to the coast, but also 635 feet up, which makes a world of a difference, but I am just skeptical imo.

 

Wait, what?  The observer measured 22 inches and reported a final of 29.8" based on what they "think" it would have been if they were clearing a snow board?  There's no way someone is actually doing that and calling it "official" right?

 

That's a pet peeve of mine and you see it sometimes on here, especially like this last storm.  I understand that not everyone can be at a snow board every 6 hours (but heck, J.Spin up here does it all winter long and even has a web cam set-up on his board so he doesn't miss a tenth), but to hear people say, "well there's like 20 inches on the ground, but I'm officially putting my total at 25 inches because it was compacting" without actually knowing the true value seems dubious to me.

 

I think MetHerb commented on this during the storm, too... sort of like everyone is afraid of having a total that is lower than it could have been, that they just add inches out of an assumption of what fell.  I figure if you can't clear as often as you would want to, you just have to run with the total you have and say whether its storm total snow on the ground or if you cleared at all.

 

Heck if I've got 18" of upslope fluff on a snow board over 24 hours, I'd love to claim it was 24 inches without the settling, but how can you just make that assumption?  People will say they want to compare apples to apples and if everyone else is doing 6-hours and adding them, then thats what they need to do, but you aren't comparing anything if you just make a number up, lol.

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The MQE number is probably legit IMHO. The lower elevations had 3-4" Thursday morning and then accumulated a little more during the day while remaining in the lower 30s while MQE stayed near 32 for a while before creeping up briefly to 34 and then below 32 mid aftn. The lower spots has 24-25" at say 200' an elevation. I could buy the 29.8..especially given the QPF they received and perhaps slight upslope.

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Would love to hear detailed model verification / post-mortem based on this map, since I sadly was out-of-commission for the leadup.

 

Some cursory thoughts:

- As in the blizzard, NAM excessive qpf turned out not so crazy. 

- Euro/CMC combo latched on by d4 and for the most part didn't waiver. 

- And I'm not certain, but JMA may have done better than the GFS.

- The Rollo/ORH combo was one of the surest predictors. You owned this storm.

- Finally, CTBlizz's snow magnet this winter is legit... I don't remember that jackpot on any guidance.

 

attachicon.gifStormTotalFinalMap.png

The RGEM had a little weenie area of enhanced snow here on several of it's runs..It was the only meso model to pick up on it. I wonder if being just to the west of that dryslot had anything to do with enhacing the amounts in NE CT? 

 

Also..east flow does well here..I always laugh when folks think it downslopes on an east wind..On a NE wind it can a little bit..but an east wind when you have a 1000 mile NE fetch for days and days is going to wring out the moisture as it banks up against the hills

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