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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part IV


Typhoon Tip

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No prob...based on what has happened so far andwhat's to come even in the short term based on radar....the Euro completely tooled with other guidance like it was a pet. NCEP guidance just cannot match the Euro inside of 60h...and really outside too, but at least they can score a bit more there.
The NAM/GFS were more horrible than usual in the near term for this. The 18z NAM gave me like 0.01" of liquid and it has been snowing for 11hrs since then. Strange, but fun, storm to watch play out.
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Euro wins again, but you really nailed the forecast Will. Thanks for all of the great info and insight you always provide.

All kidding aside I really hope duggs will now admit the gfs was atrocious. One of the worst commutes in recent memory. This is a storm that two days ago was mainly forecast to be a rain storm or nothing. Remember this time yesterday even noaa had cut way back.

I will never ever understand why just about everyone was so bearish (aside or you and Harvey).

You nailed h changeover time here btw. I'm getting nothing like you guys but an surprised how bad it is. Rte 3 is atrocious!

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All kidding aside I really hope duggs will now admit the gfs was atrocious. One of the worst commutes in recent memory. This is a storm that two days ago was mainly forecast to be a rain storm or nothing. Remember this time yesterday even noaa had cut way back.

I will never ever understand why just about everyone was so bearish (aside or you and Harvey).

You nailed h changeover time here btw. I'm getting nothing like you guys but an surprised how bad it is. Rte 3 is atrocious!

 

Let's not forget the GFS had this first though. If you look at the models say 48h out, the GFS was only one that had this. 

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All kidding aside I really hope duggs will now admit the gfs was atrocious. One of the worst commutes in recent memory. This is a storm that two days ago was mainly forecast to be a rain storm or nothing. Remember this time yesterday even noaa had cut way back.

I will never ever understand why just about everyone was so bearish (aside or you and Harvey).

You nailed h changeover time here btw. I'm getting nothing like you guys but an surprised how bad it is. Rte 3 is atrocious!

Harvey was a little bearish at first but went all out yesterday. There really was no way you could be bullish for BOS..like 12"+ but interior se mass and ORH always looked good.
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Harvey was a little bearish at first but went all out yesterday. There really was no way you could be bullish for BOS..like 12"+ but interior se mass and ORH always looked good.

I think you could be bullish for Boston by Jerry and back from Logan. For you guys north of about marshvegas the water figured to be less of an issue.

Harvey is awesome. I firmly believe if be was working early week the forecasts would have been different. People follow the leader.

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Let's not forget the GFS had this first though. If you look at the models say 48h out, the GFS was only one that had this.

The gfs is great at sniffing storms but loses the show inside of 72 hours. Remember it never "had" what happened it was way too far NW then way too far SE. It knew there was a storm coming somewhere in New England is about it.

Euro was locked and loaded for 3 days. Never waivered. Rgem lost the show to be honest inside of 12-18 hours backing off somewhat. Ggem was fine. Ukmet not good. Nam did okay aside of temps. Okay in that it basically supported the euro but wasn't accurate enough to be a tool itself just reinforcement.

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I think you could be bullish for Boston by Jerry and back from Logan. For you guys north of about marshvegas the water figured to be less of an issue.

Harvey is awesome. I firmly believe if be was working early week the forecasts would have been different. People follow the leader.

It was really tough for BOS. A lot had to work out and it did. But interior se mass and points NW looked good all along.

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The gfs is great at sniffing storms but loses the show inside of 72 hours. Remember it never "had" what happened it was way too far NW then way too far SE. It knew there was a storm coming somewhere in New England is about it.

Euro was locked and loaded for 3 days. Never waivered. Rgem lost the show to be honest inside of 12-18 hours backing off somewhat. Ggem was fine. Ukmet not good. Nam did okay aside of temps. Okay in that it basically supported the euro but wasn't accurate enough to be a tool itself just reinforcement.

JMA may have been best. In all honesty..it never wavered

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It was really tough for BOS. A lot had to work out and it did. But interior se mass and points NW looked good all along.

 

Scott if the only guidance we had was the Euro, people would have run with the Bulls.  Like I said I'll never understand the group think and that's not me being johnnie come lately.  The coast east of Rte 24 was always a tougher call.  But that classic area just west/sw of the city proper...this is how we used to do late February and March snowstorms back before Morch.

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This is fun.  I was down on this system until about 3-4 days out.  Once we saw the GFS show something, I became optimistic.  Once we saw the Euro take over and spit out ridiculous QPF, I knew we had a hit.

 

 

Kudos to those who stuck to there guns.  I was a tad conservative.

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Respect the firehose.

 

Remember this post?   Could be the biggest troll reverse mind'uck ever. 

 

"This was never a NE storm or for that matter NYC. Mid Atlantic deserves this storm after all the misses this winter. He'll this won't even come close to Nemo. Have a good day. Hope you guys pull off atleast 1-2 inches "

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Remember this post?   Could be the biggest troll reverse mind'uck ever. 

 

"This was never a NE storm or for that matter NYC. Mid Atlantic deserves this storm after all the misses this winter. He'll this won't even come close to Nemo. Have a good day. Hope you guys pull off atleast 1-2 inches "

 

 

Was that the dude from York, PA?

 

The Euro went balls to the wall for like 5 runs in row right after he posted that.

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Scott if the only guidance we had was the Euro, people would have run with the Bulls.  Like I said I'll never understand the group think and that's not me being johnnie come lately.  The coast east of Rte 24 was always a tougher call.  But that classic area just west/sw of the city proper...this is how we used to do late February and March snowstorms back before Morch.

 

The euro still was tough here with temps and QPF, I think most mets agreed. But, it did a good job. This was timed perfectly overnight.

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Was that the dude from York, PA?

 

The Euro went balls to the wall for like 5 runs in row right after he posted that.

 

Yeah, worked out great.

 

Plum Island they're saying worst ever.  Building inspector was just on said he's never seen anything like it out there.  Sad.  Hull looks savaged too.

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Remember this post?   Could be the biggest troll reverse mind'uck ever. 

 

"This was never a NE storm or for that matter NYC. Mid Atlantic deserves this storm after all the misses this winter. He'll this won't even come close to Nemo. Have a good day. Hope you guys pull off atleast 1-2 inches "

LOL.

 

It's definitely a nice event here too, even in torch-crazy Midtown Manhattan. Some of us on Long Island will likely hit 12" at this rate. Has to have been the first positive bust from an inverted trough in this area in a decade at least.

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LOL.

It's definitely a nice event here too, even in torch-crazy Midtown Manhattan. Some of us on Long Island will likely hit 12" at this rate. Has to have been the first positive bust from an inverted trough in this area in a decade at least.

We has a couple opportunities this winter that weren't all that different that ended as scrapers when blocking failed.

We played with fire most of the winter and it didnt work out. But two times it did in epic fashion.

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We has a couple opportunities this winter that weren't all that different that ended as scrapers when blocking failed.

We played with fire most of the winter and it didnt work out. But two times it did in epic fashion.

It's looking like your "top 3 storm for Boston" call might not be far off. :lol:

 

What a ridiculous event up your way. We have to feel bad though for the guys south of us who were supposed to get slammed and got cold rain instead.

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