March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part IV

[Damage In Tolland]

No idea but this looks really promising for you guys at elevation from you north through the ORH Hills.  Subdude already at over 5 inches I think in northern ORH county... Cantore in ORH said they are snowing around 1/2" per hour so thats a good steady snow.

 

What a winter down there for you.

Yeah it's 1/2-1 inch per hour snow averaged out. This really is bonus snow too since the heaviest doesn't come till after midnite into tomrrow morning. I'm still hopeful we can tickle 100 before it's all said and done.

 

I told people March needed to prove to me it could still produce and it certainly can. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yeah it's 1/2-1 inch per hour snow averaged out. This really is bonus snow too since the heaviest doesn't come till after midnite into tomrrow morning. I'm still hopeful we can tickle 100 before it's all said and done.

 

I told people March needed to prove to me it could still produce and it certainly can. 

Why would it have stopped? Because you had 2 years without snow in March?  Even last year I had a 9" event in Morch...

 

This one is pretty cool though

[Brian5671]

OT: but watched a TV weathercast for the 1st time in eons and Ch 30 out of Hartford (Ryan's channel) noted 30 years on the air for Brad Field)  Wow.   Was in Providence before Hartford.

[Quincy]

Fellow SW CTers(or anyone else), what are you thinking for tonight? I'm going a EURO/RGEM/NAM 70/20/10 split, and tossing the GFS, it looks nothing like radar. I'm thinking 4-6", although I think that could bust on either end. A reasonable expectation?

-skisheep

if we're talking about lower Fairfield County, 3-6". Northern sections, 4-7".

[mattinmass]

the bands seems to be drying up as they work their way into Cape Ann area and W/SW down through northwestern parts of metrowest Boston - then they fire again to the W - what's causing this? and is it expected to fill in this area a bit overnight? 

[weathafella]

Forgive me please if this has been posted but nice map....

[Quincy]

For all those of you who are worried, give it some time. Temperatures will cool and expect radar echoes to fill in a bit overnight.

[ineedsnow]

box map is going to be to low here

[RIcoastalWX]

33.3/28 - Light Snow

 

Guess the radar did fill in quickly... walked into the gym at 4pm with partly sunny skies and my sunglasses on and walked out at 6:15 to a car covered with snow. 

 

Heavy coating on colder surfaces... although side streets are starting to go from shiny to dull...  

[RIcoastalWX]

LOL!!!  

 

I just checked the radar!!  It's back!!!  The hole is back!!  Wow!  Didn't see this coming!  

 

Same location as earlier today... mostly the entire state of RI is opening right up on the radar!

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Yesterday the GFS had 1/3 to 1/2 the precip the Euro showed for consecutive runs over C and NE Mass. The GFS was also significantly less than the CMC and SREFs in these areas. It led the pack in shifting the initial precip field SE. You said the GFS should be completely disregarded. I thought the Euro was too wet and should be blended with the GFS. Tabulating it up now, that looks right on. Calls for heavy snow today did not quite materialize in BOS and PVD, primarily due to surface temps but also due to modest QPF. I'm not sure your exact call, but the Euro verbatim from yesterday had deep snow in both of those cities at this point. Didn't happen. I thought you hit the more extreme snow models a little too hard. To balance out and provide counterpoint I probably poo pooed it a little too much. But I think we actually had basically the same thoughts regarding the axis of best snows today.

If you had taken the time to spell out your thoughts based on the culmination of posts I would say that you would have busted badly. We went from 2-4 to 10-14 on the grids in six hours, I'd say that everything you said would have bad your totals even lower than what fell by dawn today jmho.

I felt there would be an area of 10"+ in the circle around Mansfield foxboro Walpole Easton bridge water etc. it remains to be seen if that plays out but that's the forecast from many right now.

Your justification for the gfs being "right" is more or less the result of how much it sucks, jmho. It will always be lower than the other models just like it was 50% of the others in the blizzard and way too light on the cape and Delmarva.... Because it has no ability to grasp the finer details.

We are only at halftime. Lets see where this stands in the am.

In the very late stages I think the nam did a better job aloft here thru 0z based on the 18z. A slightly warmer pocket rotated back and temps have responded. The euro appears to be too cold. It will also probably be too wet.

I'd still toss the gfs. If its right its only because its half of what happens in every storm. Sometimes they break the wrong way but as those graphics show...although this has moved a little se where it "hit" the gfs was underdone.

[mattb65]

Yesterday the GFS had 1/3 to 1/2 the precip the Euro showed for consecutive runs over C and NE Mass.  The GFS was also significantly less than the CMC and SREFs in these areas.  It led the pack in shifting the initial precip field SE.  You said the GFS should be completely disregarded.  I thought the Euro was too wet and should be blended with the GFS.  Tabulating it up now, that looks right on.  Calls for heavy snow today did not quite materialize in BOS and PVD, primarily due to surface temps but also due to modest QPF.  I'm not sure your exact call, but the Euro verbatim from yesterday had deep snow in both of those cities at this point.  Didn't happen.  I thought you hit the more extreme snow models a little too hard.  To balance out and provide counterpoint I probably poo pooed it a little too much.  But I think we actually had basically the same thoughts regarding the axis of best snows today.

You busted big time, why do you keep doubling and tripling down. Rollo was all over this storm and corrected your errors time and again. Seriously.

 

I live in Boston and I have about 5" so far and counting, and it was moderate accumulating snow on non paved surfaces all day at my house.

[RIcoastalWX]

Does anyone know why Upton's radar looks completely different than Taunton's radar over RI?

 

Taunton's radar is a verify here... I am down to a few stray flurries and a quick .7 degree rise in temp (up to 33.8)

 

Yet Upton's radar over RI looks very impressive with no dry slot.

[SR Airglow]

Does anyone know why Upton's radar looks completely different than Taunton's radar over RI?

 

Taunton's radar is a verify here... I am down to a few stray flurries and a quick .7 degree rise in temp (up to 33.8)

 

Yet Upton's radar over RI looks very impressive with no dry slot.

i have no idea but post it in the obs thread, you should get an answer there, everyone is over therr right now.

-skisheep

[ineedsnow]

maybe the distance from the radar site?

Does anyone know why Upton's radar looks completely different than Taunton's radar over RI?

 

Taunton's radar is a verify here... I am down to a few stray flurries and a quick .7 degree rise in temp (up to 33.8)

 

Yet Upton's radar over RI looks very impressive with no dry slot.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Probably already mentioned but Cantore and Noyes thinking 9" for a big swath of the ORH area

[weathafella]

Probably already mentioned but Cantore and Noyes thinking 9" for a big swath of the ORH area

12 is my call for that swath.

[subdude]

Yeah... I really was questioning whether the other guidance would keep central areas out of the goods. Temps have been excellent here though. High so far of 30.0F. Once the sun sets and the inflow sets up it should go to town

I thought we were a bit on the N fringe of this and we would be on the low end of the totals. If we can squeeze 8-10" out of this, that would be great. Will was right on track with this storm. props.

[ineedsnow]

im going with 8 for here storm total

[HoarfrostHubb]

12 is my call for that swath.

Sorry. Meant 9" more

Prob 6" or so more for here on the NECN map

[cja1987]

Yesterday the GFS had 1/3 to 1/2 the precip the Euro showed for consecutive runs over C and NE Mass.  The GFS was also significantly less than the CMC and SREFs in these areas.  It led the pack in shifting the initial precip field SE.  You said the GFS should be completely disregarded.  I thought the Euro was too wet and should be blended with the GFS.  Tabulating it up now, that looks right on.  Calls for heavy snow today did not quite materialize in BOS and PVD, primarily due to surface temps but also due to modest QPF.  I'm not sure your exact call, but the Euro verbatim from yesterday had deep snow in both of those cities at this point.  Didn't happen.  I thought you hit the more extreme snow models a little too hard.  To balance out and provide counterpoint I probably poo pooed it a little too much.  But I think we actually had basically the same thoughts regarding the axis of best snows today.

 

Define "deep snow" since, admittedly, I did not look at the ec weenie snow maps or try to add up qpf.

 

I think you are splitting hairs. I did not see Rollo hitting BOS proper hard at all for deep snow by AM. I think I remember pretty clearly he was talking away from the coast (might as well throw urban heat island in there as well because that prob hurt Boston's accums a bit as well). Either way, I'm in Randolph for this storm and relative spitting distance from BOS proper. We we're just into the heavier bands in the wee hours. Noticeable cut off (at least in how much stuck) between here and even northern Milton into Brookline this AM. If we attribute that mostly to QPF (not pure temps) in the sense that rates drove temps that were just cold enough for accums, the decent precip was a few miles from the Boston city line. Hardly a reason to scream bust just up the road. No model is gonna place QPF that accurately, you dont need me to tell you that.

Everything has pretty much gone as Rollo thought, at least for round 1. He was hitting interior SE MA/along 24 (I can hear the hum of 24 from here and had 4" this morning) for best accums, pretty much worked out and it was a damn good call considering there was major uncertainty among even the pros( especially TV) as to whether the early AM stuff would even perform. Hell, I think if BOX was even that confident about it, they would have hit it harder for the benefit of AM commuters, etc.

 

Enough from me but you are indeed splitting hairs eduggs.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

im going with 8 for here storm total

 

What's otg there?  There's no real accumualtion to speak of once N of Northampton.

[skierinvermont]

Does anyone know why Upton's radar looks completely different than Taunton's radar over RI?

 

Taunton's radar is a verify here... I am down to a few stray flurries and a quick .7 degree rise in temp (up to 33.8)

 

Yet Upton's radar over RI looks very impressive with no dry slot.

 

The radar beam points up at an angle. By the time it gets to RI the beam is too high and going through the clouds. Upton's radar works well to about the CT/RI border and maybe parts of SW RI. East of there use the Boston radar.

[ineedsnow]

1.5

What's otg there?  There's no real accumualtion to speak of once N of Northampton.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Euro makes bank or busts with the moisture growing out off Provincetown right now. That's the juice for tonight. Gfs said no go

[Typhoon Tip]

No spring tickling your nape this month

No sir!   In fact the tele's don't show any interest in Spring until further notice - 

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I really never should have doubted the Euro, not even for a moment.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Define "deep snow" since, admittedly, I did not look at the ec weenie snow maps or try to add up qpf.

 

I think you are splitting hairs. I did not see Rollo hitting BOS proper hard at all for deep snow by AM. I think I remember pretty clearly he was talking away from the coast (might as well throw urban heat island in there as well because that prob hurt Boston's accums a bit as well). Either way, I'm in Randolph for this storm and relative spitting distance from BOS proper. We we're just into the heavier bands in the wee hours. Noticeable cut off (at least in how much stuck) between here and even northern Milton into Brookline this AM. If we attribute that mostly to QPF (not pure temps) in the sense that rates drove temps that were just cold enough for accums, the decent precip was a few miles from the Boston city line. Hardly a reason to scream bust just up the road. No model is gonna place QPF that accurately, you dont need me to tell you that.

Everything has pretty much gone as Rollo thought, at least for round 1. He was hitting interior SE MA/along 24 (I can hear the hum of 24 from here and had 4" this morning) for best accums, pretty much worked out and it was a damn good call considering there was major uncertainty among even the pros( especially TV) as to whether the early AM stuff would even perform. Hell, I think if BOX was even that confident about it, they would have hit it harder for the benefit of AM commuters, etc.

 

Enough from me but you are indeed splitting hairs eduggs.

 

The NAM takes the Euro to a little bit more of an extreme.  Providing the obs and the euro mostly hold serve this would be one last--off the top rope, Rowdy Roddy Piper body slam of the GFS by the Euro.   Will gets smoked tonight as does Ray, Jerry, etc.   This would be the death blow for the Euro to the GFS, providing the nam isn't on the chronic again.

 

I've noticed Will is silent.  That tells me he sees nothing out of the ordinary versus the Euro and was comfortable with what was going on. 

[CoastalWx]

The NAM takes the Euro to a little bit more of an extreme.  Providing the obs and the euro mostly hold serve this would be one last--off the top rope, Rowdy Roddy Piper body slam of the GFS by the Euro.   Will gets smoked tonight as does Ray, Jerry, etc.   This would be the death blow for the Euro to the GFS, providing the nam isn't on the chronic again.

 

I've noticed Will is silent.  That tells me he sees nothing out of the ordinary versus the Euro and was comfortable with what was going on. 

 

Why were you questioning it? It seems fine so far.

[CT Rain]

Not sure if anyone cares but NAM/HRRR now showing the heaviest snows tomorrow morning... after sunrise. Like 11z-16z? at least?