March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part IV

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

Harvey's map is 5-10" for people close to the coast, says EMA is going to get hammered with heavy snow tonight through tomorrow morning. Worcester county SE jackpot of 6-12". I like it.

[CoastalWx]

I'm in Roslindale and a good 4" already.

[DomNH]

Sticking with 3-6'' here...maybe on the high end of that but not thinking anything huge. Enjoy it, SE guys.

 

0'' so far.

[skierinvermont]

why are so many finding the term firehose confusing? Hopefully this helps..

 

 

[alex]

The North Shore (me included) seems to be getting screwed. When do we think things will pick up for us? 

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

The North Shore (me included) seems to be getting screwed. When do we think things will pick up for us?

Where are you? I've got 3.5" imby? Tonight through tomorrow am is when the real beastly stuff should rotate over us.

[eduggs]

Why is anyone surprised this is happening? You have been all over this, great stuff the last few days.I know some have busted your chops and me included about micro analysing the runs but you and Will have stuck solidly to your guns when Boston on airs and a couple from here were poo pooing. Good Stuff

The wetter models of yesterday (including the Euro and SREFs) busted way too wet north of I-90, and west of I-495.  As expected, temps were too warm in the far SE where the highest QPF occurred.  And also as expected, there was a narrow area in interior, elevated SEMA where sufficient QPF and cold lined up for heavy snow.  This has certainly NOT played out thus far how the more aggressive snow forecasters expected (Rollo et al) over the past two days.

 

However, everything changes now that surface temps are cooling.  And the increase in midlevel deformation QPF on all guidance since yesterday gives everyone a second chance at cashing in.  It was a good call to keep highlighting the potential of heavy snow right to the coast (Rollo et al).  I think relatively bullish calls will verify, but not quite for the reasons originally suspected.  In the end a middle ground was probably most reasonable.  My quick conclusions: Euro is generally best.  GFS is NOT useless.  QPF is the least reliable parameter and should probably not be overanalyzed.  We were actually probably better off before the Euro QPF was available on Wunderground.  Good job by the mets and amateurs.  There was some good analysis and some bad analysis.  I put myself in that camp too.

 

I'm trying not to look at the radar anymore so I can enjoy whatever falls without expectation.  Good luck to everyone.

[Damage In Tolland]

The wetter models of yesterday (including the Euro and SREFs) busted way too wet north of I-90, and west of I-495.  As expected, temps were too warm in the far SE where the highest QPF occurred.  And also as expected, there was a narrow area in interior, elevated SEMA where sufficient QPF and cold lined up for heavy snow.  This has certainly NOT played out thus far how the more aggressive snow forecasters expected (Rollo et al) over the past two days.

 

However, everything changes now that surface temps are cooling.  And the increase in midlevel deformation QPF on all guidance since yesterday gives everyone a second chance at cashing in.  It was a good call to keep highlighting the potential of heavy snow right to the coast (Rollo et al).  I think relatively bullish calls will verify, but not quite for the reasons originally suspected.  In the end a middle ground was probably most reasonable.  My quick conclusions: Euro is generally best.  GFS is NOT useless.  QPF is the least reliable parameter and should probably not be overanalyzed.  We were actually probably better off before the Euro QPF was available on Wunderground.  Good job by the mets and amateurs.  There was some good analysis and some bad analysis.  I put myself in that camp too.

 

I'm trying not to look at the radar anymore so I can enjoy whatever falls without expectation.  Good luck to everyone.

LOL I do that sometimes too. Twds the end of a storm I won't look at radar so i don't know when the end is coming. And then someone posts it on here and ruins it.I knew I wasn't alone

[HoarfrostHubb]

There's the firehose rolling in. Wild night ahead.

20" for Foxboro?

[alex]

Where are you? I've got 3.5" imby? Tonight through tomorrow am is when the real beastly stuff should rotate over us.

Winchester on the Lexington line. We have no more than a couple of inches..

[powderfreak]

LOL I do that sometimes too. Twds the end of a storm I won't look at radar so i don't know when the end is coming. And then someone posts it on here and ruins it.I knew I wasn't alone

 

It is a great way to experience a storm...then you don't have to worry about the next town over getting M1/4 +SN while you are merely 1/2sm moderate snow, lol. 

 

Think about all the weenie breakdowns over all the storms past, no one would break down if they didn't know what was happening elsewhere, lol.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I'm in Roslindale and a good 4" already.

 

More I look at it the less enthusiastic I am.  Euro I think is going to be too cold down this way, 18z NAM better showed the slight warming that just occurred.  I'm not looking like I usually do but I'd swear the Euro was too far north offshore.  It takes the little vortmax that's out there further north, stops it and then spins it SW right at us later along with the PVA.  GFS was meh with that and further south.  I'm not sold on the Euro TBH at this late stage.

 

But I may be missing something.

[SR Airglow]

Fellow SW CTers(or anyone else), what are you thinking for tonight? I'm going a EURO/RGEM/NAM 70/20/10 split, and tossing the GFS, it looks nothing like radar. I'm thinking 4-6", although I think that could bust on either end. A reasonable expectation?

-skisheep

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

Winchester on the Lexington line. We have no more than a couple of inches..

Hmm you're more inland/further south than I am, but I really don't think that's too big a factor and the day today wasn't supposed to be our main event, overnight and tomorrow morning should be the real action.

[powderfreak]

Interesting wording in the grids... what makes the grids come out with "Snow Showers" in a synoptic storm like this?  This is from ORH area... usually only see those types of accums coupled with "snow showers" in localized upslope or lake effect events.

 

Tonight: Snow showers. Low around 26. North wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

 

Friday: Snow showers, mainly before noon. High near 34. North wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

[WeatherX]

Fellow SW CTers(or anyone else), what are you thinking for tonight? I'm going a EURO/RGEM/NAM 70/20/10 split, and tossing the GFS, it looks nothing like radar. I'm thinking 4-6", although I think that could bust on either end. A reasonable expectation?

-skisheep

Problem is we are burning a lot of qpf right now without accumulating. So, if you follow Euro output, there's about .40" that falls with temps close to or below freezing (later tonight) into tomorrow morning. I'd go 2-4" mostly on grass and colder surfaces and perhaps an inch or two on the roads by 6-7am tomorrow morning.

[Brian5671]

Fellow SW CTers(or anyone else), what are you thinking for tonight? I'm going a EURO/RGEM/NAM 70/20/10 split, and tossing the GFS, it looks nothing like radar. I'm thinking 4-6", although I think that could bust on either end. A reasonable expectation?

-skisheep

I'm going low 1-3 and mainly on colder surfaces....I think this is more elevation dependent.  Also looks more off and on vs a steady snow IMO

[powderfreak]

Will this congeal into a larger area of 25dbz or greater, or does it retain the showery look?  Thus answering my previous question about "snow showers" in the grids, lol.

 

[Tom MA wx]

Interesting wording in the grids... what makes the grids come out with "Snow Showers" in a synoptic storm like this?  This is from ORH area... usually only see those types of accums coupled with "snow showers" in localized upslope or lake effect events.

 

Tonight: Snow showers. Low around 26. North wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

 

Friday: Snow showers, mainly before noon. High near 34. North wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

I have the same thing here in Framingham, MA......very strange

 

 

 

Tonight: Snow showers. Additional snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches. Near steady temperature in the upper 20s. North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent. 

Friday: Snow showers...mainly in the morning. Total snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches. Cold with highs in the mid 30s. North winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

[Tom MA wx]

Firehose seems to be finally starting to rotate northwest

[SR Airglow]

Problem is we are burning a lot of qpf right now without accumulating. So, if you follow Euro output, there's about .40" that falls with temps close to or below freezing (later tonight) into tomorrow morning. I'd go 2-4" mostly on grass and colder surfaces and perhaps an inch or two on the roads by 6-7am tomorrow morning.

How much QPF are we burning really though? It's been light snow all day, probably no more than .3" per hour if it was to accumulate. say 10 to 1 ratios. It's been going since around 10, it's close to 6 now, so 8 hours at .03 per hour is around a quarter of an inch liquid. EURO had an inch liquid at BDR, so I think we see a bit more than .4, maybe closer to .5" 2-4" seems reasonable, and I think it's just as likely as something higher. Like many have been saying, it's all going to come down to the banding, we get into a good band, we could see 6" no problem, if we languish in subsidience for a while, we see closer to 2".

 

upton is going 3-7" here in their latest update, still has the center at 5" which is consistent from earlier, but another inch on either direction leeway...(they had 4-6" earlier.)

 Fun times ahead, that's for sure!

-skisheep

[Clinch Leatherwood]

The wetter models of yesterday (including the Euro and SREFs) busted way too wet north of I-90, and west of I-495.  As expected, temps were too warm in the far SE where the highest QPF occurred.  And also as expected, there was a narrow area in interior, elevated SEMA where sufficient QPF and cold lined up for heavy snow.  This has certainly NOT played out thus far how the more aggressive snow forecasters expected (Rollo et al) over the past two days.

 

However, everything changes now that surface temps are cooling.  And the increase in midlevel deformation QPF on all guidance since yesterday gives everyone a second chance at cashing in.  It was a good call to keep highlighting the potential of heavy snow right to the coast (Rollo et al).  I think relatively bullish calls will verify, but not quite for the reasons originally suspected.  In the end a middle ground was probably most reasonable.  My quick conclusions: Euro is generally best.  GFS is NOT useless.  QPF is the least reliable parameter and should probably not be overanalyzed.  We were actually probably better off before the Euro QPF was available on Wunderground.  Good job by the mets and amateurs.  There was some good analysis and some bad analysis.  I put myself in that camp too.

 

I'm trying not to look at the radar anymore so I can enjoy whatever falls without expectation.  Good luck to everyone.

 

Huh?  It snowed where I thought it would along the I95 corridor between Boston and Providence.  Right where most were forecasting little or nothing because it was going to be too warm.  I thought it would rain here, it has and thought the dividing line may be about Carver and points WNW today.  There's been a pretty good area of 5-7/8" amounts in the Mansfield, Foxboro, Easton, Sharon/Walpole area, as was expected.

 

The GFS sucked where the main banding has set up, just like it sucked yesterday.  You go to great lengths to tell us what you don't think will happen when people post their ideas while not really telling us what you thought was going to happen and where.  We can all read the NAM and realize verbatim the 0z run last night was an inferno for a lot of areas, the difficulty was in figuring out where it would actually snow.  At this stage the event is 1/2 over.   That does make it a little easier, and certainly reduces the chances of being wrong.  What I said to you about the GFS multiple times is that it typically seems to cut the .5 contour right, but misses on the max to the right of it.  That's pretty much what happened today, and yesterday.

 

I'm more bearish than most right now.  I'm not loving what I see overall, but will wait a bit as this tries to redevelop.   But if the majority of the models are right and areas get another 4-8 or so tonight there will be areas with over a foot pretty much right in the circle we ALL outlined yesterday.

 

I think describing places like Raynham and Easton as "elevated' is an enormous reach BTW. 

 

It's still pouring down here, so these amounts are light on the main panel vs the GFS 2 most recent forecasts.  Note the .5 contour in the most recent was okay, but woeful in the earlier one out by Ginxy.

[Typhoon Tip]

Here we go again... 

 

 

[WeatherX]

How much QPF are we burning really though? It's been light snow all day, probably no more than .3" per hour if it was to accumulate. say 10 to 1 ratios. It's been going since around 10, it's close to 6 now, so 8 hours at .03 per hour is around a quarter of an inch liquid. EURO had an inch liquid at BDR, so I think we see a bit more than .4, maybe closer to .5" 2-4" seems reasonable, and I think it's just as likely as something higher. Like many have been saying, it's all going to come down to the banding, we get into a good band, we could see 6" no problem, if we languish in subsidience for a while, we see closer to 2".

upton is going 3-7" here in their latest update, still has the center at 5" which is consistent from earlier, but another inch on either direction leeway...(they had 4-6" earlier.)

Fun times ahead, that's for sure!

-skisheep

Like the positivity lol. Best of luck to everyone.

[Damage In Tolland]

Here we go again... 

 

 

No spring tickling your nape this month

[powderfreak]

No spring tickling your nape this month

 

Congrats on Mt Tolland regenerating the band overhead. 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Congrats on Mt Tolland regenerating the band overhead. 

 

Yeah it's been pounding the last hour..alternating between mod and heavy. .powder too..temp is 28.9

 

I don't know if the hills have anything to do with that regeneration or not?

[SR Airglow]

Like the positivity lol. Best of luck to everyone.

Yup, I'm hopelessly optimistic Upton does have 5" here on their snowmap, so who knows... Radar looks great, according to obs it should be sticking soon, I'm excited!

 

I'm going low 1-3 and mainly on colder surfaces....I think this is more elevation dependent.  Also looks more off and on vs a steady snow IMO

1-3" does seem low, but who knows? I guess you think we get hurt by temps and lack of accumulation? I disagree with you on the showerly look, sim radar(and real radar) looks solid for later, it's supposed to build up as the good stuff moves in from the east, what we are seeing now here is really the appetizer IMO.

 

Best of luck to everyone! May we all get feet of snow and, most of all, enjoy it!

-skisheep

[powderfreak]

Yeah it's been pounding the last hour..alternating between mod and heavy. .powder too..temp is 28.9

 

I don't know if the hills have anything to do with that regeneration or not?

 

No idea but this looks really promising for you guys at elevation from you north through the ORH Hills.  Subdude already at over 5 inches I think in northern ORH county... Cantore in ORH said they are snowing around 1/2" per hour so thats a good steady snow.

 

What a winter down there for you.

[eduggs]

Huh?  It snowed where I thought it would along the I95 corridor between Boston and Providence.  Right where most were forecasting little or nothing because it was going to be too warm.  I thought it would rain here, it has and thought the dividing line may be about Carver and points WNW today.  There's been a pretty good area of 5-7/8" amounts in the Mansfield, Foxboro, Easton, Sharon/Walpole area, as was expected.

 

The GFS sucked where the main banding has set up, just like it sucked yesterday.  You go to great lengths to tell us what you don't think will happen when people post their ideas while not really telling us what you thought was going to happen and where.  We can all read the NAM and realize verbatim the 0z run last night was an inferno for a lot of areas, the difficulty was in figuring out where it would actually snow.  At this stage the event is 1/2 over.   That does make it a little easier, and certainly reduces the chances of being wrong.  What I said to you about the GFS multiple times is that it typically seems to cut the .5 contour right, but misses on the max to the right of it.  That's pretty much what happened today, and yesterday.

 

I'm more bearish than most right now.  I'm not loving what I see overall, but will wait a bit as this tries to redevelop.   But if the majority of the models are right and areas get another 4-8 or so tonight there will be areas with over a foot pretty much right in the circle we ALL outlined yesterday.

 

I think describing places like Raynham and Easton as "elevated' is an enormous reach BTW. 

 

It's still pouring down here, so these amounts are light on the main panel vs the GFS 2 most recent forecasts.  Note the .5 contour in the most recent was okay, but woeful in the earlier one out by Ginxy.

Yesterday the GFS had 1/3 to 1/2 the precip the Euro showed for consecutive runs over C and NE Mass.  The GFS was also significantly less than the CMC and SREFs in these areas.  It led the pack in shifting the initial precip field SE.  You said the GFS should be completely disregarded.  I thought the Euro was too wet and should be blended with the GFS.  Tabulating it up now, that looks right on.  Calls for heavy snow today did not quite materialize in BOS and PVD, primarily due to surface temps but also due to modest QPF.  I'm not sure your exact call, but the Euro verbatim from yesterday had deep snow in both of those cities at this point.  Didn't happen.  I thought you hit the more extreme snow models a little too hard.  To balance out and provide counterpoint I probably poo pooed it a little too much.  But I think we actually had basically the same thoughts regarding the axis of best snows today.