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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part IV


Typhoon Tip

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Holy sh*t. I retract my previous comments. This wunderground site is convenient, thanks. So Scott are there any more tickets for the Euro QPF train? Apparently I bought the wrong one. :axe:

 

All models will likely be underdone in the best band.  GFS was predictable though had done this all day yesterday too.  Just doesn't seem to have the resolution to handle it.  Long as it keeps the band near us and pointed at us I figured we were GTG

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lol NAM, a foot of snow sounds nice! Don't think it verifies, but then again EURO is over 1" at BDR, so not that crazy...

Cut it by 1/3rd or so for here and you start to have a realistic forecast, still on the high end, but somewhat EUROish. Suprised it didn't cave to the GFS, when it caves, it's usually the GFS which it goes to. GFS should be intresting to see if it ups the ante down here.

 

-skisheep

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Yeah totally just realized that. Sh*t.

 

It's high stakes, we need that band to pivot up which it's doing.  Yesterday even the NAM was too low.  In that thin band on the Delmarva the GFS was about 1/4 of what fell. 

 

IF IF IF it can come ashore and setup, someone could see astronomical totals.

 

I'm still not sold it makes it with the most intense portion.  As much as it wants to come west it rotates sw.  This is the game, I think it's oming but want to see the next 30 minutes on radar.

 

My guess is that's 2-3" per hour of heavy wet snow.

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Seems like the nam initialization phases sooner than most previous guidance.  Radar shows the northern stream precip converging over the Berks and NW CT with temps dropping.  They should start getting hammered by dusk especially.

 

I've clung to the March 01 analog this whole event, and although the block is further southeast in this case, the late stream interaction is similar.   Raises the bust potential big time though.

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First guess map for upton's CWA, I think it's conservative out west(NJ), they could do much better. I'm bullish for the city, I think eastern CT is going to be nice, here is the wildcard. I'm not confident in 4-6" at all, I think it could bust either way. My first time making a map, my apoligies for the horrible design. Didn't do one for BOX because I don't know the area up there very well, but I'd go with the BOX map but up totals in CT to 4-6" minimum and maybe add some more on the cape. If this is in the wrong thread I apoligize mods feel free to move it, not sure if it should be in the banter thread or here.

-skisheep

EDIT: red <1"(not there), green 1-2", Blue is 2-3", yellow 3-5"+, purple 4-6"+, dark purple 5-8"+, . Think all the others are readable.

post-8652-0-66123500-1362687784_thumb.pn

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It's high stakes, we need that band to pivot up which it's doing.  Yesterday even the NAM was too low.  In that thin band on the Delmarva the GFS was about 1/4 of what fell. 

 

IF IF IF it can come ashore and setup, someone could see astronomical totals.

 

I'm still not sold it makes it with the most intense portion.  As much as it wants to come west it rotates sw.  This is the game, I think it's oming but want to see the next 30 minutes on radar.

 

My guess is that's 2-3" per hour of heavy wet snow.

I don't think the band over Nantucket itself is going to make it in...lift and moisture expands north of that.  You'll see the radar fill in and get stronger reflectivity and that band east of Boston making it inland.

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