HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I'm liking the setup for my area with this event as the low level winds back to a more N direction, which should help to mitigate shadowing issues for the west slope. The 4 km NAM actually had the 10 m winds going NNW here after midnight, possibly implying some weak upslope enhancement. I will do a lot better if the low level winds are not ripping out of the E or NE. Snow growth looks good for this event as well, helping with ratios some after dark. Accumulations will be hard to pin down for any one location as I think there is definitely banding potential with this event, but I'm going with a general 6-10" for much of the area (W MA and E NY) with areas over a foot likely where the weenie bands set up shop. I think the QPF jackpots will likely be determined more by where the best banding sets up this go around as opposed to orography since the low level winds are more parallel to the mountain ranges, although elevation will help with snow ratios with whatever falls during the day today and tomorrow. MPM is going to be sad he is out of town. lol Greenfield tends to do well on N winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Will check out the water vapor. It's just coming onto the screen now but you can see the high/mid level moisture getting tossed back hardcore. Coming to a snow ruler near you in about 7 hours. Heh, just posted about the RAP while you posted this...it looks awesome later tonight...and lines up fairly well with what the Euro is advertising. That moisture firehose/feed from the east just gets lifted up and thrown back into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The RAP looks amazing for tonight after about 03z-04z. Yeah that's that pile of moisture way out east coming down and around. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20130307&endTime=-1&duration=5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The RAP looks amazing for tonight after about 03z-04z. Yeah awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Yeah awesome. What link? The site I use is down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFRI Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Local maps from noontime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 So we have .35" that's going to accumulate, and we probably get some stuff after 12z tomorrow(upton has us shutting down early afternoon and all snow until then), I'd say total accumulating QPF here is probably about .45" or so? Very happy with this run, should verify upton's 4-6" nicely and my 3-5" should be good, probably on the higher end. According to NYC forum Stamford is the .75 line for storm total, but I'm tossing them and going with what's here, the analysis over there is shaky sometimes... -skisheep 3"-5" looks good for you and 6" might be possible. Hopefully, if there are any surprises, they'll be on the snowier side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 after seeing the euro i wonder if box goes with warnings for most of ma and northern ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I cant see how the euro/rgem combo will be wrong for Boston. I believe that is the new deadly combo inside of 24 hours. Especially inside of 12 hours. The only difference right now is that the euro is more bullish then the rgem, with regards to total precip. Rgem from now to end. Total accumulations of snow in liquid form: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I think a lot of people will do very well...not only does a lot of it come after sundown...but the rates themselves are heaviest during the overnight hours. The non informed could be waking up to quite a surprise in eastern areas where they won't be expecting this. It's gonna rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I really feel like most of the forecasts are way behind still. Especially just NW of Bob the forecast has already fallen. It's like there's no understanding of tonight. Will/Scott/Ryan and all One concern I have. The Euro had this band over to the SE of me moving up by now. It hasn't. GFS kind of didn't move it and then suddenly it's east of boston in a few hours. They really diverged very quickly in that regard. JMHO the model that has the best handle on the band to my SE is the NAM so far. it pinned it for another few hours and then has it moving up. We just had a big wind gust, temp instantly dropped .4, down to 34.6 and dropping. If we get real precip it should be all snow finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 We prefer Atlantikkake. theme of the next gtg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 It's interesting. The GFS is NE with the band by 0z. The EURO is WSW of the GFS. The NAM is south of them both and warmer. Just curious, something to watch going forward. NAM is obviously an enormous hit still as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The guy on Channel 4 is on. He worded it as "an additional 4-8" for almost all of you, with Bob/Easton/Foxboro 8-10" more. That to me seems very reasonable. In addition to what already fell. Good compromise until we actually see it pounding later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I really feel like most of the forecasts are way behind still. Especially just NW of Bob the forecast has already fallen. It's like there's no understanding of tonight. Will/Scott/Ryan and all One concern I have. The Euro had this band over to the SE of me moving up by now. It hasn't. GFS kind of didn't move it and then suddenly it's east of boston in a few hours. They really diverged very quickly in that regard. JMHO the model that has the best handle on the band to my SE is the NAM so far. it pinned it for another few hours and then has it moving up. We just had a big wind gust, temp instantly dropped .4, down to 34.6 and dropping. If we get real precip it should be all snow finally. I get the feeling it may not "look" on radar like it's moving north... it may just totally blossom to the northwest as the better forcing moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I get the feeling it may not "look" on radar like it's moving north... it may just totally blossom to the northwest as the better forcing moves in. some of the models like orh hills/monads as a place for this blossoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Highest temp so far since precip began which is what we are currently at 31.4. Is it sticking in/around Providence now? Have to pick up the red bombshell at TF Green later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 What link? The site I use is down. I look at it on twisterdata Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Scott what are you thinking for Boston when all is said and done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I look at it on twisterdata Thanks. The NCEP site is all screwed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I get the feeling it may not "look" on radar like it's moving north... it may just totally blossom to the northwest as the better forcing moves in. I think the Euro may be overdone there to be honest, the 12z pulse up again. The 0z last night matches better what's happening as it pertains to that band. The 0z last night moved it northward in the next few hours. That seems reasonable. Just food for thought, like I said the 12z Euro runs seem to uptick each day. Maybe that's part of it. Academic really, mainly just wondering about QPF which at this point is mostly meaningless. Positioning itself of the band is pretty good in the last 3 runs all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Scott what are you thinking for Boston when all is said and done? Well I thought 3-6 last night but it could be more if we really get clocked tonight. That very well may be too low if the euro and rap are right. They argue like 8" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhj Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 could someone please tell the people in south eastern ct what the hell is going on? we have this snow hole that wont quit!! will it fill in later? thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I think the Euro may be overdone there to be honest, the 12z pulse up again. The 0z last night matches better what's happening as it pertains to that band. The 0z last night moved it northward in the next few hours. That seems reasonable. Just food for thought, like I said the 12z Euro runs seem to uptick each day. Maybe that's part of it. Anywhere east of ORH I'm just tossing it. Exterior areas may verify, or close to at least with precipitation, but still overdone imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Thanks. The NCEP site is all screwed up.I'd try instantweathermaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Is it sticking in/around Providence now? Have to pick up the red bombshell at TF Green later tonight. From what I hear not on roads its seems only sticking even on grass is PVD east. The airport is too close to the bay never same obs as the city Radar looks like sucker hole in RI growing again my temps on the rise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 New BOX map is awsome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Srefs look good, and have increased qpf here, most of it falling after 9pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Srefs look good, and have increased qpf here, most of it falling after 9pm that's what we need if this is to work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Anywhere east of ORH I'm just tossing it. Exterior areas may verify, or close to at least with precipitation, but still overdone imo. The euro? I wouldn't toss it at all man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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