Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,587
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part IV


Typhoon Tip

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

What the f is a firehose? My question keeps getting trampled on. Is it the inverted trough with all the precip? This slang gets to be too much at times.

Tons of moisture from the ocean compliments of this double upper level low combo we have going on here (some Japanese sounding name that begins with "F" that has been noted here). Hopefully most in the form of snow.

That's the way I understand it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

To build on what Will stated, here's the qpf for narrower periods:

 

HPN:

3/7 18z through 3/8 18z: 0.57"

3/8 0z through 3/8 12z: 0.31"

 

BDR:

3/7 18z through 3/8 18z: 0.66"

3/8 0z through 3/8 12z: 0.36"

So we have .35" that's going to accumulate, and we probably get some stuff after 12z tomorrow(upton has us shutting down early afternoon and all snow until then), I'd say total accumulating QPF here is probably about .45" or so? Very happy with this run, should verify upton's 4-6" nicely and my 3-5" should be good, probably on the higher end. According to NYC forum Stamford is the .75 line for storm total, but I'm tossing them and going with what's here, the analysis over there is shaky sometimes...

-skisheep

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well I hope it works out. I had a good vibe about this one for a couple days now for ORH hills...these quirky setups that involve upslope and other nuances tend to work out well for that area. Models are usually not the greatest at handling it.

You have been consistent and steadfast with your call for ORH... hope it works out for you (cuz I usually get in on it, too)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm liking the setup for my area with this event as the low level winds back to a more N direction, which should help to mitigate shadowing issues for the west slope. The 4 km NAM actually had the 10 m winds going NNW here after midnight, possibly implying some weak upslope enhancement. I will do a lot better if the low level winds are not ripping out of the E or NE. 

 

Snow growth looks good for this event as well, helping with ratios some after dark. Accumulations will be hard to pin down for any one location as I think there is definitely banding potential with this event, but I'm going with a general 6-10" for much of the area (W MA and E NY) with areas over a foot likely where the weenie bands set up shop. I think the QPF jackpots will likely be determined more by where the best banding sets up this go around as opposed to orography since the low level winds are more parallel to the mountain ranges, although elevation will help with snow ratios with whatever falls during the day today and tomorrow. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro looks considerably better for Boston than it did last night.

 

Just throwing this out there in searching for a model I thought fit this morning well and the current radar it was the NMM.  Shoots the band here up and over and then back down.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/list_files_area.php?model=hrw-nmm-eus&cycle=12&area=eus&param=precip_p03

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For the valley and shoreline in CT...gotta keep in mind that some of that QPF on the Euro falls after 8-9 am tomorrow. Unless we're really ripping, I imagine some of that will have a hard time adding up. Think it's still worth being conservative for the valley/shore. Hills in really good shape though.

 

 

It will probably be a situation where those hills along or north of the Merritt get some 5-6" totals while south along the shore struggle to get 2 or 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow Boston could end up with a big total if most of that comes in after sundown

 

 

I think a lot of people will do very well...not only does a lot of it come after sundown...but the rates themselves are heaviest during the overnight hours.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think a lot of people will do very well...not only does a lot of it come after sundown...but the rates themselves are heaviest during the overnight hours.

 

Will check out the water vapor.  It's just coming onto the screen now but you can see the high/mid level moisture getting tossed back hardcore.  Coming to a snow ruler near you in about 7 hours.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For the valley and shoreline in CT...gotta keep in mind that some of that QPF on the Euro falls after 8-9 am tomorrow. Unless we're really ripping, I imagine some of that will have a hard time adding up. Think it's still worth being conservative for the valley/shore. Hills in really good shape though.

 

I'm not too concerned about tomorrow morning. Model soundings look pretty cold in the boundary layer and as long as rates are decent with a strong northerly wind we shouldn't have a problem even down to the beaches.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...