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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part IV


Typhoon Tip

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Stupid question no. 2 of the day from me:

 

People talk about high sun angle affecting snow accumulations,etc.  If there's heavy cloud cover would the sun angle really matter that much. 

 

There is a lot of what we call "solar insolation" that passes right through the clouds onto the ground even with cloud cover. The sun is much strong than it was even a month ago in terms of how much infrared radiation hits the Earth.

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the question is how much of this is wasted b/w now and sunset--nothing sticking here (even on grass) and temp is 38

36 here, and nothing sticking either. On the models that were good for us, the main QPF didn't come until after sunset, so I'm not too worried. I'd guess we've seen maybe .1-.15" of QPF so far out of anywhere between .6" and 1"+? My gut is somewhere between .35-.4" that accumulates ending up as around 4", although I might go a tad higher based on the radar. The light stuff that has been the theme for most of the day can't be more than .02 or so per hour...

-skisheep

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NYC forum thinks it's better than 0z, which probably bodes well for us. They say it has .75"+ for SWCT. (keep in mind they aren't always the most accurate over there)

-skisheep

 

 

Its a pretty juicey run overall...it destroys MA and far S NH and RI...it prob has 0.75" to BDR...but keep in mind that some of that is between now and sundown with like 0.15-0.20" per 6 hours from 12-18z and 18z-00z...so its really the stuff after that you want to count if you are lower down on the coast where 0.15" in 6 hours won't do much during midday.  

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Scott what's your instinct down here?  I'm snowing here at times at 35.4 but we cannot seem to drop much below that.

 

You will need winds to back a little more and sunset. You are on the edge, but if it can come down hard, I don't see why you can't get a few inches. Tough call on the water there.

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Hey Will, good you stayed bullish up there. I'll never forget that even in Dec 2010 you were getting weenie upslope there when radar looked like crap. You guys will always scratch your way to good totals. Not sure why BOX was low there yesterday. 

 

 

Well I hope it works out. I had a good vibe about this one for a couple days now for ORH hills...these quirky setups that involve upslope and other nuances tend to work out well for that area. Models are usually not the greatest at handling it.

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You will need winds to back a little more and sunset. You are on the edge, but if it can come down hard, I don't see why you can't get a few inches. Tough call on the water there.

 

Euro seems to have a pretty good handle.  I'm dropping ever so slightly, down to 35.2 now.  Just need the early season north wind.  I can say it really has gone over to mostly snow here now. 

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NYC forum thinks it's better than 0z, which probably bodes well for us. They say it has .75"+ for SWCT. (keep in mind they aren't always the most accurate over there)

-skisheep

To build on what Will stated, here's the qpf for narrower periods:

 

HPN:

3/7 18z through 3/8 18z: 0.57"

3/8 0z through 3/8 12z: 0.31"

 

BDR:

3/7 18z through 3/8 18z: 0.66"

3/8 0z through 3/8 12z: 0.36"

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