SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I'm going for an inch on the grass, will be happy with that... I think you're going to bust low, the radar looks great, we weren't supposed to do so well on the coastal as we have been doing now, even though it's not accumulating. The RGEM totally shifted, but looking at it in more detail, the upper air is totally different from the NAM, and everything else for that matter. I think we verify a compromise of GFS RGEM EURO and a tiny bit NAM(only because it can't have zero clue, give it 5%), and end up with around .35" liquid that can accumulate. That's supported by the EURO, GFS and NAM, and I'm going down with the ship. Not sure that I'm right, but I feel good about this, I've had a good feeling about it the past few days, and I've found that going with your gut often works out. Who knows though, you could very well be right... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 whoops I forgot where Stamford was lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I think you're going to bust low, the radar looks great, we weren't supposed to do so well on the coastal as we have been doing now, even though it's not accumulating. The RGEM totally shifted, but looking at it in more detail, the upper air is totally different from the NAM, and everything else for that matter. I think we verify a compromise of GFS RGEM EURO and a tiny bit NAM(only because it can't have zero clue, give it 5%), and end up with around .35" liquid that can accumulate. That's supported by the EURO, GFS and NAM, and I'm going down with the ship. Not sure that I'm right, but I feel good about this, I've had a good feeling about it the past few days, and I've found that going with your gut often works out. Who knows though, you could very well be right... -skisheep I do think it will boil down to getting under a good band or not...hoping for the best for all, but there will be winners and losers in this one as always....(and more so this go around with this unusual setup) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I think you guys in NW CT do pretty well from the upper level low tonight. I'm SW, not sure if that's what you meant? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I think you're going to bust low, the radar looks great, we weren't supposed to do so well on the coastal as we have been doing now, even though it's not accumulating. The RGEM totally shifted, but looking at it in more detail, the upper air is totally different from the NAM, and everything else for that matter. I think we verify a compromise of GFS RGEM EURO and a tiny bit NAM(only because it can't have zero clue, give it 5%), and end up with around .35" liquid that can accumulate. That's supported by the EURO, GFS and NAM, and I'm going down with the ship. Not sure that I'm right, but I feel good about this, I've had a good feeling about it the past few days, and I've found that going with your gut often works out. Who knows though, you could very well be right... -skisheep I ran an even blend of the GFS, 6z GEFS, Euro, Euro Ens, NAM, and SREF...basically drops 2-5" for SW CT. I think 0.35" liquid is a very reasonable forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I do think it will boil down to getting under a good band or not...hoping for the best for all, but there will be winners and losers in this one as always.... As always, it's just a factor of luck where the bands decide to park themselves. I think NYC is toast, but I think we have a much better chance than they do. I'm bullish mainly because of the radar, it looks beautiful, and it seems to be outperforming down here so far. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 starting to come down harder here now radar really looking good Radar starting to beef up over central and western CT.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I ran an even blend of the GFS, 6z GEFS, Euro, Euro Ens, NAM, and SREF...basically drops 2-5" for SW CT. I think 0.35" liquid is a very reasonable forecast. Seems reasonable, don't think it's going to be great, but the people(mainly in NYC forum) who are calling total bust even for up here are overreacting. as always, it's the bands that make the difference. We could end up under a 35 DBZ band for 2 hours and get 4" in that time, or we could be in subsidience the whole night and get an inch. In the end, it's all luck anyway. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I'm SW, not sure if that's what you meant? -skisheep Lol. You're nw hills like Kev is Greenland! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Lol. You're nw hills like Kev is Greenland! For some reason I was thinking Stamford was in NW CT...honest mistake. They're definitely favored...but SW CT should get some decent snows later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 As always, it's just a factor of luck where the bands decide to park themselves. I think NYC is toast, but I think we have a much better chance than they do. I'm bullish mainly because of the radar, it looks beautiful, and it seems to be outperforming down here so far. -skisheep Radar looks like it's about to rock some moderate over you shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 For some reason I was thinking Stamford was in NW CT...honest mistake. They're definitely favored...but SW CT should get some decent snows later tonight. Yeah, NWCT into the catskills should do decently well, hoping Hunter picks up a few inches, I might head there on saturday to debut the spring skiing season. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Radar looks like it's about to rock some moderate over you shortly It's going as we speak, really can't tell if it's accumulating though because I'm at my desk on a high floor, looking down onto downtown stamford. Hard to see a grassy area to see if it's sticking, although I would expect it's not. I'm going out for lunch in a few minutes, I'll give a report when I return. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Look at the beautiful convergence over western ct, band over stamford norwalk westport backing east and the one in central ct heading west. Righteous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 It's going as we speak, really can't tell if it's accumulating though because I'm at my desk on a high floor, looking down onto downtown stamford. Hard to see a gras sy area to see if it's sticking, although I would expect it's not. I'm going out for lunch in a few minutes, I'll give a report when I return. -skisheep Cool. We've got some light to moderate currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Look at the beautiful convergence over western ct, band over stamford norwalk westport backing east and the one in central ct heading west. Righteous. That band is inch an hour snow if it were to stick, it's a fun one! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 It's going as we speak, really can't tell if it's accumulating though because I'm at my desk on a high floor, looking down onto downtown stamford. Hard to see a grassy area to see if it's sticking, although I would expect it's not. I'm going out for lunch in a few minutes, I'll give a report when I return. -skisheep 40 degrees out-ain't sticking yet...maybe tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Look at the beautiful convergence over western ct, band over stamford norwalk westport backing east and the one in central ct heading west. Righteous. so much for the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 That band is inch an hour snow if it were to stick, it's a fun one! -skisheep Is the best of that band a hair east of you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 WFSB3 has 7" for their snowfall forecast here while WTNH8 is calling for a general 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 so much for the RGEM ? Did we already get 2-4 inches of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 RAP is a snowbomb here tonight and into the Rt 2 corridor. Oh I we pray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Is the best of that band a hair east of you? Yes, we had it 20 minutes ago maybe. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 borderline heavy snow now starting to stick.. euro rolling out soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 so much for the RGEM The great 6z or the poor 12? Hopefully the latter. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 borderline heavy snow now starting to stick.. euro rolling out soon Not in downtown Springy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Stupid question no. 2 of the day from me: People talk about high sun angle affecting snow accumulations,etc. If there's heavy cloud cover would the sun angle really matter that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Wow. Starting to rip here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The great 6z or the poor 12? Hopefully the latter. -skisheep you can see that the western edge of the snow shield is setting up west of NYC. I think that's a good sign for us. If we were on the western fringe, I'd be alot more concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 you can see that the western edge of the snow shield is setting up west of NYC. I think that's a good sign for us. If we were on the western fringe, I'd be alot more concerned Yeah I noticed that on radar, dare I say it, it looks almost NAM ish? (not that in any way do I think the NAM is going to verify) -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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