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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part IV


Typhoon Tip

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EURO had .5"+ to NYC, 4-6", expecting it to cut back to 3-5", loosing around 25% of the QPF. Glad that Ryan is holding at 3-6", he dosen't usually bite unless it's legit, so the fact that he's on board is comforting. JB is riding the GFS and has 3-6" back to NYC...

-skisheep

Euro 24hr precip 00z FRI-00z SAT is 0.25" at NYC to 0.4" at HVN.....

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RPM is a snow bomb for SNH and has been since 00Z runs or there about. 4KM out to 15Z tomorrow has MHT south at 12-16" and its still snowing at that point !!

I think the amounts are overdone, but 12" should be possible.

. Not sure where you get this accuweather and local mets here sat less then 2 inches in Amherrst, NH?
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By midweek next week after the cutter yes most of it will be gone but not until then.

And if its 48-50 is that really a torch in March? Your normals are like 46-47 now

it's a relative torch.  We've been chilly for the last month for sure.  50 would feel like an inferno in full sun and no wind

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On Sunday at 12:37 I posted this - 

 

 
Posted 4 March 2013 - 12:37 PM
 

MAJOR PREDICTION - I now Know that this storm will be no better than "OK" for us.  This methodology has worked like a charm this season.  My Friend, Hallie, from Texas, who isn't really a fan of our region, come up to do a 1 year Masters at BU.  In the time she has been in Boston, she has seen about 10" of snow:  

 

All the time she has been here, the models show something, and it doesn't really pan out.  But - 

 

She went on a 2 week vacation in late December and Missed - The Dec. 29th Bombogenisis Storm!  

 

She had to go to a funeral out of Nowhere and had to leave February 7th, and came back on February 11th RIGHT as the Snow changed to rain on that Monday morning!!  Literally - Missed the Biblical Blizzard of 2013!  

 

She is leaving Thursday for Spring Break - Perfect Right!?!?  Except - The storm is supposed to be in Full Swing by then - Hence: No Good Storm.  

 

 

She got an earlier flight and is Leaving..................................................................... RIGHT NOW!  On Plane waiting to Take Off!!  STORM ON T Minus 30 Minutes!!!!

 

I wouldn't even be surprised if the radar just Blossoms.  

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Ryan, I am surprised you are going with 3-6 in the valley and 6+ in the hills E & W.  Is that from BL temps or shadowing?  Seems to me that neither one should be much of an issue once we start to rip?

 

Sort of a legacy from last night. I do think the Litchfield Hills will do best with tonight's snow (if I had to guess) and the NE Hills already had 1-2 inches this morning. 

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We won't lose all the snowcover over this weekend, no way, no how, there is still alot of old snow still to melt and high's here in the upper 40's won't cut it.

Exactly..but the 40's and rain Tuesday will sadly melt most of it. It's been a great winter for sonwcover. i think we had 3 days where i saw the grass since Dec 24

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Sort of a legacy from last night. I do think the Litchfield Hills will do best with tonight's snow (if I had to guess) and the NE Hills already had 1-2 inches this morning. 

Are you still thinking 3-6" down here, or is it just consistency from last night?

-skisheep

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Does Mt. Tolland qualify as NE hills?

Yes, that 1000' behemoth, while an outlier, is still firmly associated with Connecticut's northeast hills.  Not unlike the Matterhorn is to the Alps. Legend holds it even gets more snow, and that there is a coterie of ascetic monks up there that make a wicked brew. But, of course, no one has ever found that band of beer brothers, let alone the elusive prominence.

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Yes, that 1000' behemoth, while an outlier, is still firmly associated with Connecticut's northeast hills.  Not unlike the Matterhorn is to the Alps. Legend holds it even gets more snow, and that there is a coterie of ascetic monks up there that make a wicked brew. But, of course, no one has ever found that band of beer brothers, let alone the elusive prominence.

Aren't they also still searching for the much trumpeted Tolland Glacier?

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It's easy to add in the precip that was modeled to fall between this morning and afternoon...that's my guess.

That's quite possible. So take 70% of the split between BDR and NYC(on other models, QPF is much closer to BDR level than NYC level), that gives us .36, 2.5-5." Not great, but still reasonable... Should be intresting to see what happens at 1 if it ticks east. How did it do with the other troughs, did it often waffle around, or was it usually locked in like it often is on other systems?

 

-skisheep

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That's quite possible. So take 70% of the split between BDR and NYC(on other models, QPF is much closer to BDR level than NYC level), that gives us .36, 2.5-5." Not great, but still reasonable... Should be intresting to see what happens at 1 if it ticks east. How did it do with the other troughs, did it often waffle around, or was it usually locked in like it often is on other systems?

 

-skisheep

I'm going for an inch on the grass, will be happy with that...

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That's quite possible. So take 70% of the split between BDR and NYC(on other models, QPF is much closer to BDR level than NYC level), that gives us .36, 2.5-5." Not great, but still reasonable... Should be intresting to see what happens at 1 if it ticks east. How did it do with the other troughs, did it often waffle around, or was it usually locked in like it often is on other systems?

 

-skisheep

 

I think you guys in NW CT do pretty well from the upper level low tonight.

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I'm not sure how the Euro has performed with similar setups. I think we'll see some bands come through and drop locally heavier amounts. The NW hills of CT are favored, but I think most of us get in on some good snow action.

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That's quite possible. So take 70% of the split between BDR and NYC(on other models, QPF is much closer to BDR level than NYC level), that gives us .36, 2.5-5." Not great, but still reasonable... Should be intresting to see what happens at 1 if it ticks east. How did it do with the other troughs, did it often waffle around, or was it usually locked in like it often is on other systems?

 

-skisheep

IMO the Euro gave you 2-3" if you're lucky.  Surface temps are very marginal until overnight and the Euro does not produce heavy rates.

But the good side of midlevel inverted trofs is the low likelihood high ceiling.  The larger than normal uncertainty is the wild card.  QPF could double or triple model forecasts or locally fizzle.

 

So far I like the way the radar/satellite are evolving and I think it will produce tonight.  But that's somewhere between a gut feeling and an educated guess.

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