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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part IV


Typhoon Tip

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The euro nailed it here last night while the MESO models absolutely FAILED in every way shape and form.  I would not trust these meso models as far as I could throw them for tonight.

 

I ride the KING

 

 

King King King

If you're riding the EURO we are getting 3-5" tonight, it had over .5" of QPF in the area. Where did it have the trough compared to the 12z RGEM?

 

The GFS was not horrible, ticked east, but had about .4" here or so, still 2-4".

Not sure the RGEM moving east is worth freaking out over, even at 18z last night it had 2-4" for here for last night, it's been all over the place. I'm worried, but not giving up until the EURO, if it holds, it's my model of choice.

 

What's the EURO's track record with troughs? Is it ususally accurate?

-skisheep

-skisheep

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radar expanding west and nw a bit ....perhaps the added lift is enhancing some upslope in the hills now as precip backs a bit and expands up thur SE nh ...ext sw maine looks like a decent little band going thru portland, maine!

 

light snow breaking out near and w/nw of concord, NH

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radar expanding west and nw a bit ....perhaps the added lift is enhancing some upslope in the hills now as precip backs a bit and expands up thur SE nh ...ext sw maine looks like a decent little band going thru portland, maine!

 

You are correct.  Snow started a little bit ago and looks like it's picking up slowly.  -SN really.  Still pretty good visibility.  

 

Looking at the radar, it does look like it's filling in around Portland, ME and to the south.  As it's been stated many times in the previous threads, this isn't a storm for Maine however with my newbie non-met eyes, it looks as though the heavy precipitation is lifting north a bit more.  I'm wondering if this could actually become a 3-6" event for Southern Maine up to Portland.

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radar expanding west and nw a bit ....perhaps the added lift is enhancing some upslope in the hills now as precip backs a bit and expands up thur SE nh ...ext sw maine looks like a decent little band going thru portland, maine!

 

light snow breaking out near and w/nw of concord, NH

not snowing yet here 12 miles nnw of CON

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I'm not sure if the RGEM is overcorrecting, onto something, or lost. Not tossing it, but leery of it until the EURO supports it. If the EURO dosen't back down, riding it all the way. I think it will backdown though to the RGEM, maybe 2-4"? Dissapointing start to 12z so far.

 

-skisheep

If we're talking about SW CT, I think the Euro is basically showing 2-4" too...

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Yup

Nice, given that he's still confident, and I know he's not one to wishcast, that increases my confidence a bit. Upton's map looks like they are riding the EURO, guessing if it moves east, they will drop numbers. EURO had about .6" here, I'm expecting to loose about 25% of that at 1, probably around .45" on EURO, 3-6", I'll take it. Worried that the RGEM is right, but comforted by the fact that mesos have been clueless with this storm.

-skisheep

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STATUS OF THE STATE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER - MONITORING

 

Good Morning,

 

At 9:00 AM radar showed bands of light to occasionally moderate wet snow falling across the state with temperatures ranging from 30 – 35 F and North winds gusting to 45 MPH at the coast and 37 MPH Inland.  Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for today for the entire state and Wind Advisories are in effect for the coast.   Overnight snowfall generally ranged from 1 – 3 inches across the state.

 

The overnight runs of the GFS and NAM models are now forecasting a moderate to heavy wet snowfall tonight for most of Southern New England as a large area of precipitation wraps around the ocean storm that is currently located well southeast of New England this morning.  This wrap around precipitation is forecast to re-enter Connecticut around 6:00 PM this evening and continue overnight and into the mid-morning on Friday.  The models are actually in good agreement and temperatures are expected to be colder overnight therefore this is a higher confidence forecast then the snowfall forecast for last night. 

 

Today…Light to occasionally moderate snow at times with highs in the 30’s.  Northeast winds gusting to 50 MPH at times along the coast and to 40 MPH at times inland.  Most of the falling snow today should melt on contact with treated roads and little or no accumulation is expected. 

 

This Evening and Overnight…Wet snow becoming steadier this evening with temperatures falling into the low 30s.  For the overnight, the wet snow is forecast to become moderate to heavy at times by midnight and continue through daybreak on Friday.  Lows near 30 F with North winds gusting to 40 MPH along the coast and 30 MPH inland.   The impact on overnight travel is expected to be moderate with snow and slush cover on most roads.

 

Friday Morning…Wet snow falling moderate to occasionally heavy at times through mid-morning.  A significant impact is possible for the morning rush hour with snow and slush covered roads causing very slick driving conditions.  The snow is forecast to slowly taper off to lighter snow by noon with temperatures slowly rising into the mid 30’s.

 

Friday Afternoon…Any light snow is forecast to change to a light mix and end by late afternoon.  Highs near 40 F with steadily improving road conditions.  The impact on the afternoon rush hour is expected to be minor with mainly wet roads.

 

Total accumulations from this evening to noon on Friday are currently forecast to range from 6 – 10” statewide with lower amounts on roadways in valley locations and higher amounts (perhaps up to a foot) on grassy surfaces in the higher elevations of the Northwest and Northeast Hills.   The amount of snow that accumulates will be dependent on temperatures.  If temperatures drop below 32 F this evening then a plowable snowfall will be likely. 

 

The Department of Emergency Services and Public Protection Division of Emergency Management and Homeland Security will continue to monitor the latest forecasts and will issue another update on this storm event at 2:00 PM this afternoon or sooner if any warnings are issued by the National Weather Service.

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If we're talking about SW CT, I think the Euro is basically showing 2-4" too...

EURO had .5"+ to NYC, 4-6", expecting it to cut back to 3-5", loosing around 25% of the QPF. Glad that Ryan is holding at 3-6", he dosen't usually bite unless it's legit, so the fact that he's on board is comforting. JB is riding the GFS and has 3-6" back to NYC...

-skisheep

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