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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part IV


Typhoon Tip

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That is a great problem to have. That's a caviar-champagne problem.  Sort of like..."Oh my, which champagne do I have with my caviar?"  Meanwhile up here we are having catfish eggs with boone's farm.

 

enjoy your Dom P.

 

Really though I'm curious as to timing with the evening commute. My entire office seems to operate upon my weather inklings so I want to be decent.

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Fujiwara comes from the phenomenon of both upper level lows interacting with each other. This causes both upper level lows to sort of dance around each other or rotate around each other. In this case it slows the parent ULL way out to sea..and helps allow moisture to be thrown well back into SNE.

Thanks, Scott.

Sounds like this is "rare", but I'm surprised it's not more common.  It would seem that the set up and positions of the ULL's like this could happen quite often.

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Thanks, Scott.

Sounds like this is "rare", but I'm surprised it's not more common.  It would seem that the set up and positions of the ULL's like this could happen quite often.

it's sometimes how we get our canes into SNE..If you have a strong ULL to the west..it helps to tug the cane back west..esp if there's a strong block in place..like we had with Sandy

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Valley jackpot = insta-toss

 

Seriously though hasn't this thing been all over the place? 

It started way west on the nam and west on the rgem............its been a slow a torture filled glide east, but we all know these tend to gravitate east and north, its probably not done yet.

 

6z had 20+++ mm here LOL

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Really though I'm curious as to timing with the evening commute. My entire office seems to operate upon my weather inklings so I want to be decent.

assuming your office is in Boston Metro, I would be a little afraid of the evening commute because if a heavy band moves in and starts to stick to the road it could be awful (see nightmare scenario Dec 2007).  That of course might not happen.  It probably won't, but if it does it would really suck.   If it were me I would leave at 4 while it is still light and snow will have a harder time accumulating.  But I'm not qualified to give you a professional response....although I did recently stay at a Holiday Inn Express.

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I'm not sure if the RGEM is overcorrecting, onto something, or lost. Not tossing it, but leery of it until the EURO supports it. If the EURO dosen't back down, riding it all the way. I think it will backdown though to the RGEM, maybe 2-4"? Dissapointing start to 12z so far.

 

-skisheep

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I'm not sure if the RGEM is overcorrecting, onto something, or lost. Not tossing it, but leery of it until the EURO supports it. If the EURO dosen't back down, riding it all the way. I think it will backdown though to the RGEM, maybe 2-4"? Dissapointing start to 12z so far.

 

-skisheep

sheep ski, these things almost always trend east......I would expect further advances in that direction, every model is coming home to sit with the KING tonight.  If we get an inch of snow consider yourself lucky.

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if that.   I'd say an inch on the grass maybe

Yeah trying to be positive, I really thought we had a consensus after the overnight runs all loved us, but apparently we are going to get screwed again... Hopefully the EURO holds. GFS ticked east.

-skisheep

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sheep ski, these things almost always trend east......I would expect further advances in that direction, every model is coming home to sit with the KING tonight.  If we get an inch of snow consider yourself lucky.

If it was a classical NORLUN, I'd agree, but I thought the fact that it's more than just that gave us a chance... The EURO still had a nice snowfall for here at 0z(2-4" lollies to 5", more than 1/2 inch QPF), hopefully it holds, if it does, I'm inclined to go with it. Don't think it will hold though...

-skisheep

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I'm keeping up with Mark Searles map from Monday night (and he had a sliiiightly snowier solution during Most of Tuesday but the second map was ALL rain on SEMA!) where I Publicly bashed the Ever living crap out of him on his facebook page for being a NAM Hugger ESPECIALLY when it's an outlier model in a storm, and it's not to be used even when it's Not an outlier. His area of 1-3 on map when crossing SE MA is already at 3-5 with 24 hours left. NOW everyone on fb knows Why I Destroyed Him.

 

 

A weenie ticker tape parade composed of NAM scraps should be scheduled in your honor.

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