Mr Torchey Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 That was 2 years ago after the big storm? right? I don't know what BOX does with those snowfall maps. They're awful for this area. They show bizarre gradients. In general the valley doesn't make a huge difference in storms unless temperatures are very borderline or you have a ripping easterly wind which will shadow. I think the NW hills will be in a good spot. I like Litchfield and W Hartford County down through Waterbury. They tend to do well in these kinds of setups. Yes it was one of the rare norluns that stayed in ct, his area to Naugatuck got taken behind the woodshed, very very localized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 That was 2 years ago after the big storm? right? I don't know what BOX does with those snowfall maps. They're awful for this area. They show bizarre gradients. In general the valley doesn't make a huge difference in storms unless temperatures are very borderline or you have a ripping easterly wind which will shadow. I think the NW hills will be in a good spot. I like Litchfield and W Hartford County down through Waterbury. They tend to do well in these kinds of setups. I haven't seen a map worse than the one Noyes put out last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I was up for the blizzard until almost 1:00am and back up at 4:30..That is as crazy as it gets. Marathon training season is upon us. Rest is required True, but this may be winters last stand, of any appreciable amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 True, but this may be winters last stand, of any appreciable amount. I'll be up early tomorrow morning as usual..and it will be pouring snow well into midday or beyond tomorrow so won't miss too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Watching the radar evolve tonight should be a hoot..........jeb walks all night long, spot lights full power, going to enjoy every moment of winters last stand. Good luck to all! What are you thinking for down here? I think 4-6" is a good starting point, no guidance is really less than .5" liquid now, potential for more if we get into banding. Wonder if schools close tomorrow, Stamford schools got slammed for staying open in the blizzard, I think they err on the side of caution if it's borderline... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinWX Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Excellent snow growth apparently, looks good for 18dbz. Got 1" on unpaved surfaces as of now... NAM has me intrigued for tonight/tomorrow morning...at BOS 1.8" QPF through tomorrow...and we don't warm at 850 til tomorrow morning. DIdn't check bufkit, just used earl barker text output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Yeah it's almost tickle like fun..because you just don't where they will end up..until they start tickling up on certain areas and then it's tickle tickle tickle all night long. How many hours do you figure until things pick back up in the BOS area out to 95? Shouldn't take long to get fun once that push in occurs... I'm just trying to time my commute home well and it's a bit tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Looking at this, it seems as though this thing is gone soon. No? I don't see a "tonight" factor here. Maybe someone can explain a bit better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I haven't seen a map worse than the one Noyes put out last night. I've been pretty disappointed by him this season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I haven't seen a map worse than the one Noyes put out last night. It had 2" for our part of Tolland, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2013 Author Share Posted March 7, 2013 This may have already been discussed but this is clearly a Norlun event tonight - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Looking at this, it seems as though this thing is gone soon. No? I don't see a "tonight" factor here. Maybe someone can explain a bit better? It's going to start to slow and hook left a bit as the ULL dives in from the GL and does the fujiwara dance, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 This may have already been discussed but this is clearly a Norlun event tonight - If you believe the NAM depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Seriously. I just don't have the knowledge with this stuff. I try to follow, but I get lost in much of the technical talk. ULL diving in from NY state..helps to capture or "pull back" the offshore low and all kinds of atlantic moisture...That upper level energy helps the moisture from the "firehouse or strong easterly flow blossom to the west. There's an extension from the parent offshore low to the ULL..which you'll sometimes see referred to as an inverted trough or Norlun and it helps to enhance precip rates even more..it also is a fujiwara effect..which means the lows sort of dance around or tickle around each other..it's rare, but it happens from time to time Without that strong ULL ..what we had this morning would have been about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2013 Author Share Posted March 7, 2013 It's going to start to slow and hook left a bit as the ULL dives in from the GL and does the fujiwara dance, Nah, the snows tonight aren't caused by the storm... That storm-centric mechanics are just clipping the Cape/SE, but that will evac seaward during the day, then ... secondary impulse passing under our latitude combined with difluent jet will excite lift; the region of lift can already be seen on WV imagery over southern Ontario, just NE of the secondary impulse. That zone will translate over a saturated column this evening, and blossom (NAM example) swath of moderate to heavy snow. The elongation in the pressure field toward the NW from a low situated hundreds of miles seaward is a fairly classic signature for Norlun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 It's going to start to slow and hook left a bit as the ULL dives in from the GL and does the fujiwara dance, Next gtg, this storm would be good model to have someone explain all of the components and dynamics involved to make this happen through animations if they're available. It's very intriguing to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I'm keeping up with Mark Searles map from Monday night (and he had a sliiiightly snowier solution during Most of Tuesday but the second map was ALL rain on SEMA!) where I Publicly bashed the Ever living crap out of him on his facebook page for being a NAM Hugger ESPECIALLY when it's an outlier model in a storm, and it's not to be used even when it's Not an outlier. His area of 1-3 on map when crossing SE MA is already at 3-5 with 24 hours left. NOW everyone on fb knows Why I Destroyed Him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2013 Author Share Posted March 7, 2013 If you believe the NAM depiction. Higher resolution model types will be more proficient at seeing that sort of thing - though it is interesting the Euro is less structured that way... The GGEM is, however, and though the GFS is less in the pressure pattern, it's events aloft and QPF modeling mimic the behavior rather well.. It's not just that... the features and their evolution are Norlun inducing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 ULL diving in from NY state..helps to capture or "pull back" the offshore low and all kinds of atlantic moisture...That upper level energy helps the moisture from the "firehouse or strong easterly flow blossom to the west. There's an extension from the parent offshore low to the ULL..which you'll sometimes see referred to as an inverted trough or Norlun and it helps to enhance precip rates even more..it also is a fujiwara effect..which means the lows sort of dance around or tickle around each other..it's rare, but it happens from time to time Without that strong ULL ..what we had this morning would have been about it. Thanks, dude. I kind of get that. Is the ULL what can be seen over the Great Lakes in that annimation above? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 That last frame it looks like she's slamming on the brakes...thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 True, but this may be winters last stand, of any appreciable amount. yup-we torch this weekend and it's gone, maybe to never return.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Thanks, dude. I kind of get that. Is the ULL what can be seen over the Great Lakes in that annimation above? Yes..it's helping to stall out the low now and you'll start to see the low "pull back as we mover thru the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Looks like GFS cut back on QPF through 33 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Fujiwara comes from the phenomenon of both upper level lows interacting with each other. This causes both upper level lows to sort of dance around each other or rotate around each other. In this case it slows the parent ULL way out to sea..and helps allow moisture to be thrown well back into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Tough storm. Not sure I understand the joy in met bashing. Doesn't anybody else make mistakes? Yeesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 GFS keeps the meaningful precip at bay in Cape Cod Bay and northward. Night and day vs NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 GFS keeps the meaningful precip at bay in Cape Cod Bay and northward. Night and day vs NAM LOL..who cares.toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 How many hours do you figure until things pick back up in the BOS area out to 95? Shouldn't take long to get fun once that push in occurs... I'm just trying to time my commute home well and it's a bit tricky. That is a great problem to have. That's a caviar-champagne problem. Sort of like..."Oh my, which champagne do I have with my caviar?" Meanwhile up here we are having catfish eggs with boone's farm. enjoy your Dom P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Tough storm. Not sure I understand the joy in met bashing. Doesn't anybody else make mistakes? Yeesh. people who don't understand the weather and how difficult it is to forecast, I don't get it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 precip is about to fill in abit N of 128 into 495 area and Se Nh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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