MJHUB Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Taunton, I suspect 2-3". I'm in Wrentham and there is 3-4" here. I can verify that.. sharpest cutoff to snow growth I have seen in a while east to west. is the heavier banding going to make it east or is Western RI / ECT gonna get totally screwed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I can verify that.. sharpest cutoff to snow growth I have seen in a while east to west. is the heavier banding going to make it east or is Western RI / ECT gonna get totally screwed? In the Delmarva yesterday the models botched the intensity of the precip in the band, esp the GFS. BUT it was very confined and penetrated only about the equivalent of where Bob is or a little west. Sure there was more west of that, but not as intense. NAM still dumps and dumps. GFS had a more protracted event. RGEM...was meh on this first part and rocked EMA tonight like the Euro and into Thursday. I think the GFS came towards the other guidance again in that this is better in the first stage through Thursday am, and better in the 2nd stage. Like I said not much time to watch today, but it will just be about the temps and hopefully no big breaks in precip to allow warming in areas that cooled. That's what hurt down south yesterday. Bottom line it looks great, just hope it can stay cold enough for all of you. After 6z and so far 12z all models agreed I nplunking this band in SE MA today. Now let's just hope there's no movement in the later bands. Just flipped to snow here in this heavier band, and some sleet it almost sounds like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 As is usual...I'm sure the NAM is overdoing QPF a bit. But even if you cut it in half...it's still a solid 4-8" across CT...(maybe 4-6" west, 6-8" east). Most guidance seems to support that at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 In the Delmarva yesterday the models botched the intensity of the precip in the band, esp the GFS. BUT it was very confined and penetrated only about the equivalent of where Bob is or a little west. Sure there was more west of that, but not as intense. NAM still dumps and dumps. GFS had a more protracted event. RGEM...was meh on this first part and rocked EMA tonight like the Euro and into Thursday. I think the GFS came towards the other guidance again. Like I said not much time to watch today, but it will just be about the temps and hopefully no big breaks in precip to allow warming in areas that cooled. That's what hurt down south yesterday. Bottom line it looks great, just hope it can stay cold enough for all of you. Temps went down from 32 at 6am to 30 now. the snow that has already fallen should help at least with the ground temp. Roads covered as well so it seems for now we are good, as long as the precip falls like it has been. 295 corridor in RI seems to be having the issues your are stating though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 what are the chances the fire hose makes it to out here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 New Upton map, they cut back NYC by 30% or so and by 1/2 on eastern Long Island, no major change here(I actually think they went up a couple tenths) -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Preliminary thinking is 3-6" for the Conn. shore with 4-8" inland. Will wait for new 12z guidance before going higher and with a map on this one. I'm sure this storm will have more surprises for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 As is usual...I'm sure the NAM is overdoing QPF a bit. But even if you cut it in half...it's still a solid 4-8" across CT...less west, more east. For many areas I agree... but I could see some super totals tonight in a few bands. I could see some 12+ snow numbers being put down. There's a lot that really excites me for tonight snow wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 temps across SE bristol and parts of pym counties warming to mid 30's R/S line appears to be moving West a tad seekonk around 31 tan w side 33 ....east side near 35'ish 35's in bridgewater 36 in lakeville. looks like r/s line could set up easton/norton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I love when your excited like this makes me think we will all be happy tomorrow For many areas I agree... but I could see some super totals tonight in a few bands. I could see some 12+ snow numbers being put down. There's a lot that really excites me for tonight snow wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 For many areas I agree... but I could see some super totals tonight in a few bands. I could see some 12+ snow numbers being put down. There's a lot that really excites me for tonight snow wise. Wow.. Ryan pumped! Any thought of raising the majority 3-6 for the state? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 For many areas I agree... but I could see some super totals tonight in a few bands. I could see some 12+ snow numbers being put down. There's a lot that really excites me for tonight snow wise. Ryan what was that even where Grinch just got absolutely owned? It was a norlun, I got like 2 here he was over a foot I believe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Yes that map is highly inaccurate. Noone uses that one Always use this one..click to enlarge Yeah...that one he posted from the river forecast center is terrible. Has 2-4" depths along the shoreline between here and HVN...while we had a lot of bare ground...and even the shady spots that still had snow cover it was 2" at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 im thinking maybe 1 to 2 inch an hour kind of stuff could be fun Expecting due north winds in the valley throughout the event. Do not think the shadowing will be as pronounced as BOX has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 watch temps over N shore as well. right now lynn holding 32....marblehead salem 32/33. we don't want tick up to 35 ....not sure if light rates and march sun angle will get us there. but i hope down in ktan temps can fall back...cause weathertap radar and meso net stations show r/s line moving slightly west into pym/bristol counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I was thinking the same thing.. I think we are good Expecting due north winds in the valley throughout the event. Do not think the shadowing will be as pronounced as BOX has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 being a little east of 95 seems to be in a good spot, Seekonk/ Attleboro up to Franklin,Wrentham, North Attleboro. Just west enough to be in a sweet spot for temps and QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Preliminary thinking is 3-6" for the Conn. shore with 4-8" inland. Will wait for new 12z guidance before going higher and with a map on this one. I'm sure this storm will have more surprises for us! Yep...finally seems to be some consensus for this storm. For many areas I agree... but I could see some super totals tonight in a few bands. I could see some 12+ snow numbers being put down. There's a lot that really excites me for tonight snow wise. Yeah...as usual...higher lollies are possible. You favoring any areas in particular? Seems like its gonna come down to nowcasting and watching where the heavier bands set up. Although I'm thinking the farther north and east one is in the state the better chance the better chance for weenie totals. What a painful storm this has been to forecast...but glad it's looking like we'll get a solid event out of it in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Yep...finally seems to be some consensus for this storm. Yeah...as usual...higher lollies are possible. You favoring any areas in particular? Seems like its gonna come down to nowcasting and watching where the heavier bands set up. Although I'm thinking the farther north and east one is in the state the better chance the better chance for weenie totals. What a painful storm this has been to forecast...but glad it's looking like we'll get a solid event out of it in the end. Yeah, I think after 12z we should have consensus on 4-8"state wide, lollies to 12" in NE areas, that's my best guess. Crazy that it took until a few hours before the start to get some agreement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 For many areas I agree... but I could see some super totals tonight in a few bands. I could see some 12+ snow numbers being put down. There's a lot that really excites me for tonight snow wise. Yeah i agree. This is going to be one of those nights into tomorrow midday where you're going to have 3 or 4 weenie bands set up..Get under them for hours and you grab 12+..miss them and it's more 4-8.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Yeah...that one he posted from the river forecast center is terrible. Has 2-4" depths along the shoreline between here and HVN...while we had a lot of bare ground...and even the shady spots that still had snow cover it was 2" at best. I don't know how they produce that map..but it looks like they draw it by hand or something. It's terrible and always very inaccurate. The one I posted is real time/satellite data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Yeah i agree. This is going to be one of those nights into tomorrow midday where you're going to have 3 or 4 weenie bands set up..Get under them for hours and you grab 12+..miss them and it's more 4-8.. They can be fun because models sometimes don't do a good job with these bands coming off the water thanks to a stalled low. I think you'll do fine tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 So far seems to be going as planned although I think se mass cleaned up. It may slow or stop accumulating at times when it ligts up in spots until this evening. It's doing what I expected here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 They can be fun because models sometimes don't do a good job with these bands coming off the water thanks to a stalled low. I think you'll do fine tonight. Yeah it's almost tickle like fun..because you just don't where they will end up..until they start tickling up on certain areas and then it's tickle tickle tickle all night long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Watching the radar evolve tonight should be a hoot..........jeb walks all night long, spot lights full power, going to enjoy every moment of winters last stand. Good luck to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Hopefully Kevin splurges and stays up a bit for this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Ryan what was that even where Grinch just got absolutely owned? It was a norlun, I got like 2 here he was over a foot I believe! That was 2 years ago after the big storm? right? Expecting due north winds in the valley throughout the event. Do not think the shadowing will be as pronounced as BOX has it. I don't know what BOX does with those snowfall maps. They're awful for this area. They show bizarre gradients. In general the valley doesn't make a huge difference in storms unless temperatures are very borderline or you have a ripping easterly wind which will shadow. Yep...finally seems to be some consensus for this storm. Yeah...as usual...higher lollies are possible. You favoring any areas in particular? Seems like its gonna come down to nowcasting and watching where the heavier bands set up. Although I'm thinking the farther north and east one is in the state the better chance the better chance for weenie totals. What a painful storm this has been to forecast...but glad it's looking like we'll get a solid event out of it in the end. I think the NW hills will be in a good spot. I like Litchfield and W Hartford County down through Waterbury. They tend to do well in these kinds of setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Yeah i agree. This is going to be one of those nights into tomorrow midday where you're going to have 3 or 4 weenie bands set up..Get under them for hours and you grab 12+..miss them and it's more 4-8.. It could be very similar to the blizzard, if you hit the nice band, you get SN+ with inch or two per hour rates, otherwise, you get SN-/SN with light accumulations. I think worst case scenario is 4" for anyone in CT, that's if you get no banding and .3" per hour SN- snows all night. Get into the bands, and it could be a foot easily. I don't think you get nothing if you miss the bands, but it won't be impressive compared to others... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Hopefully Kevin splurges and stays up a bit for this one! I was up for the blizzard until almost 1:00am and back up at 4:30..That is as crazy as it gets. Marathon training season is upon us. Rest is required Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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