Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Nam drops a foot plus for just about all of SNE. Up to 18-20 up near ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 6z gfs didn't look that bad for e. areas at all. given it's coarse resolution i would prob takes it's basic idea of enhanced qpf and prob have to add a bit since meso systems aren't it's thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Nam drops a foot plus for just about all of SNE. Up to 18-20 up near ORH ya it moved from central to eastern ny to all of us, that would be awesome for all if it verified! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 warnings for all this afternoon.. im waiting for the rest of 12z to get to excited though but its encourageing Nam drops a foot plus for just about all of SNE. Up to 18-20 up near ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Nam drops a foot plus for just about all of SNE. Up to 18-20 up near ORH April '97 lite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 nam is now our trusted friend? given the 6z gfs i think the nam is actually on a similiar page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 pretty quiet now. 28 2.5" radar looks dry for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I like the CT shadow zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I like the CT shadow zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 warnings for all this afternoon.. im waiting for the rest of 12z to get to excited though but its encourageing It's the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I am glad the nam is on our side because the tv stations still aren't they expect this to turn to a rain event for eastern Mass. what do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 ya it moved from central to eastern ny to all of us, that would be awesome for all if it verified! NAM = No Accuracy Model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 False. We had about 4-5 inches OTG before the snowfall last night today. The map I saw of snowpack showed that I guess this map is way off http://www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc/graphics/snowmaps/sd1_today.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I am glad the nam is on our side because the tv stations still aren't they expect this to turn to a rain event for eastern Mass. what do you think? It ain't gonna mix due to marine taint. If the sun came out and there was little precip it may be a rasn mix in some spot, but it's not marine taint. I think that was flawed logic...temps are more clearly driven by precip rate today. Winds are alsmot due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 09z SREFs are juicy for E MA. 1"+ from 24-48h panels. Bob how much there? Looks like 3-4 just to your NW already. See, it can snow in a marginal airmass just back from the coast !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 NAM = No Accuracy Model I like that name better lol.. NAM its not accurate but has the idea kinda since the gfs shows the same just about half the qpf.. on the order of 4-8" while nam is 8-16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 It ain't gonna mix due to marine taint. If the sun came out and there was little precip it may be a rasn mix in some spot, but it's not marine taint. I think that was flawed logic...temps are more clearly driven by precip rate today. Winds are alsmot due north. So they are just trying to save their butts for their horrible numbers from yesterday, coming up with a logic on why their numbers are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I guess this map is way off http://www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc/graphics/snowmaps/sd1_today.jpg Yes, it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 messenger WRT fire hose . http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/rich/NAM/ you can see the nose of the 850 inlow is 6 S.D (WOW) just off E NJ coast right now (7pm 0z thurs) on sref guidance if you click fwd in time after selecting 850 inflow and the model of your choice.....for sref's for example you can see the nose of that anomalous 850 inflow moving NNE to just off MVY/ACK/CC from 7am to like 4pm when its at it's northern most spot... at 5 standard deviations and it keeps that nose of anomalous 850 inflow bombing mvy/ack areas from tomm am to fri am at 5 stanard deviations! now i'm not 100 %sure the firehose is / and it's movement....is correlated (METS?) with the 850 inflow nose. it appears to be! the NAM gets this nose of the 5 SD anomaly further north faster by like 1-3 am over the islands/CC and pivots this up to CC and SE mass by 7am ....it develops another little nose over boston and west around 10pm tommorrow into the overnite.. so like 8pm to 4 am or so over boston west general area n/s 20 miles or so. the GFS however go back to the 850 inflow ...the nose of the 5 SD area is well east of new england and doesn't really hit us the 18z run was closest but not that close lol i think that needs to be watch'd nam/sref's show nose of maximum 850 inflow crushing SE mass up to boston area (at times) i think this represents potential fire hose placement best it correlates to what you point out on WV GFS shows this where it is ....and going ENE and well SE of us. also the firehose will allign itself with mid level winds (will mention'd this to me) which will be east going to ene i think i'm glued to this graphic later tonite and it's updates. wrt to an update on the 850 inflow the nam seem'd to cave to the gfs with position of the greatest anomalies and nose of 850 inflow over the last cycle or two. 12z nam not out there yet. but would like to see it better wrt to the above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 if this firehose thing really comes to fruition and the lifting mechanism draws it over sne as modeled it should be pretty big and should overcome the whole death valley issue this scenario actually makes sense to me for some surprisingly big dumps of snow, the fetch off the ocean combined with the lift should be insane later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Bob how much there? Looks like 3-4 just to your NW already. See, it can snow in a marginal airmass just back from the coast !!! Taunton, I suspect 2-3". I'm in Wrentham and there is 3-4" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 5 inches already in Mansfield, mass. They'll have a foot by late afternoon Those 2-3 foot amounts on the RPM may verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 srefs really hit this band hard tonight too.. I think we have to go all in.. and say at least 3-6"+ tonight for everyone with emphasis on plus if it works out right.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 bridgewater, ma is getting crush'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Pickles the firehose references is the 850-700 inflow or TROWAL as we call it. It's basically a huge area of isentropic glide upwards, but loaded with moisture..hence the high rates. There can be bands of heavier snows related to little kinks in the mid level lows spinning a lobe of vorticity back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Wow the NAM won't give up, warning criteria snows tonight for here. SREF was close to .75" here, although I'm riding the RGEM/EURO blend. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I guess this map is way off http://www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc/graphics/snowmaps/sd1_today.jpg Yes that map is highly inaccurate. Noone uses that one Always use this one..click to enlarge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 im thinking maybe 1 to 2 inch an hour kind of stuff could be fun if this firehose thing really comes to fruition and the lifting mechanism draws it over sne as modeled it should be pretty big and should overcome the whole death valley issue this scenario actually makes sense to me for some surprisingly big dumps of snow, the fetch off the ocean combined with the lift should be insane later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Pickles the firehose references is the 850-700 inflow or TROWAL as we call it. It's basically a huge area of isentropic glide upwards, but loaded with moisture..hence the high rates. There can be bands of heavier snows related to little kinks in the mid level lows spinning a lobe of vorticity back west. thank u i mean do the 850 inflow maps i had link'd relate pretty decent do this. they show the nose of the 850 inflow but not the 700.... really like those maps ginxy link'd bc it shows in3 hr intervals models latest thinking wrt to movment of that nose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Pretty much just need to watch the radar for part 1. For the potential catch (note the GFS even is building QPF later)...that's a model issue, I have no idea how everyone will do with that, related to temps etc. I'm pleased with this first batch, uncertain about the rest and don't have the time to look today. We are moosh here as expected. Hoping maybe this evening we can flip. This is very reminiscent of the December snowstorms we had a few years ago for me. Drive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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