eduggs Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Good luck everyone. Should be rippin by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Will what do you think for Amherst, NH? .5" What do you think 3-4 inches of snow or are we going to be to warm? Well the 0.5" line goes nearly to CON...you'd prob be like 0.60-0.65 or something...but who knows for sure. The firehose gets you for a time when the fujiwara occurs. This forecast isn't easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 it wouldn't be pretty , left to our own devices lmao now lets hope euro doesn't slide E at 12z tommorrow. As messenger would say when the euro trends..... By the time we see it again we'll already know...there will be snow on the ground or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Euro is cold too...pretty much all snow until you get far SE MA where BL issues may show their head...near PYM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 When was the last time we had a fujuwara type event like this in SNE? Can't wait to watch how this all plays out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 How does it look for the Malden/Saugas area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomasnh Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Thanks so much, I have learned so much from you guys on this forum. I don't envy you at all when it comes to forcasts. Models are only so good as they are programed and when it comes to weather and all the variables it is just incredible that you are able to do as good a job as you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2013 Author Share Posted March 7, 2013 Good luck everyone. Should be rippin by morning. Models are just models... but what's happening now leaves something to be desired, and really wouldn't support that... Sometimes though, you got to bed and wake up surprised going, 'how the hell' - we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Models are just models... but what's happening now leaves something to be desired, and really wouldn't support that... Sometimes though, you got to bed and wake up surprised going, 'how the hell' - we'll see. ya it should be ripping by morning somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Models are just models... but what's happening now leaves something to be desired, and really wouldn't support that... Sometimes though, you got to bed and wake up surprised going, 'how the hell' - we'll see. We wont be ripping in the morning...but SE MA probably will. We will be mostly nickle and diming off to the west until we get better support in here tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 for alot of us, this really isn't "long duration" anymore.....for areas in parts of RI ,SE mass, cape maybe s shore it sounds like it will be. i mean there is precip hitting those areas already. But as far as big totals go.....i think that .5 qpf will was saying will be close call for EMA may need to make it to the ground....otherwise the big totals may be off the table. i.e over 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Pretty noticable shift in QPF on the Euro over the past 2 runs. Overlaying the past several model runs on Wunderground shows it well. Do we say the Euro caved to the GFS? Well people are going to see what they want to see and spin it however they want. I think a QPF blend has been reasonable for a while. Snow's coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Pretty noticable shift in QPF on the Euro over the past 2 runs. Overlaying the past several model runs on Wunderground shows it well. Do we say the Euro caved to the GFS? Well people are going to see what they want to see and spin it however they want. I think a QPF blend has been reasonable for a while. Snow's coming! GFS/Euro blend is probably pretty good back here...but in SE MA and far E MA...its a totally different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 GFS/Euro blend is probably pretty good back here...but in SE MA and far E MA...its a totally different story. so far. hopefully it's not a delay'd compromise those echos look like a hybrid/tropical system feeder bands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Boston northward looked significantly worse than the 12z I'd say. It doesn't lift the the firehouse as far into SNE like the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Boston goes from like 0.80-1.00 of qpf in 9 hours on the 12z to like 0.45" in 9 hours on the 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Boston goes from like 0.80-1.00 of qpf in 9 hours on the 12z to like 0.45" in 9 hours on the 00z. Brutal, but expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Euro is cold too...pretty much all snow until you get far SE MA where BL issues may show their head...near PYM There should be some snow back 5 miles or so from east facing beaches down this way by morning. Not going to happen here, too warm. Maybe later Thursday. Pretty noticable shift in QPF on the Euro over the past 2 runs. Overlaying the past several model runs on Wunderground shows it well. Do we say the Euro caved to the GFS? Well people are going to see what they want to see and spin it however they want. I think a QPF blend has been reasonable for a while. Snow's coming! How are you overlaying? What tool are you using? The GFS was spitting out about .4 or .5 in a lot of areas where the CMC/Euro are 2-4 x that. We will have to wait until it falls to know what was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Anyway last two maps for the night mainly for those that like to follow these models. They don't do much for me. All models show a narrow intense band rotating over the cape. Some have one later tonight, another during the day. Euro/HRRR both show accumulations just back from the beaches. For entertainment purposes. I expect no accumulations here through most of the day Thursday. As the sun goes down Thursday there's the opportunity for snow here, but i'm not sold on that. Back up west of me along I 195 and up to maybe just west of South Weymouth, Randolph, over to Blue Hill down thru Sharon, Easton, Mansfield, Taunton, they could, and probably should all get croaked. The big red flag is its not cooling, and these quick heavier showers are doing nothing to move temps here. It's going to take a persistent band dumping for an hour to flip it where it's 35/36, JMHO. If those don't set up...(speaking of the coastal areas back to that circle) EDIT as I said that temp just drop 1/2 a degree with that shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Messenger and Bob get blitzed...but other than that...i didn't like the trend...it was pretty significant for a storm on the doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 6-10 inches, starts slushy and gets better? ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BOS LAT= 42.37 LON= -71.03 ELE= 20 00Z MAR07 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THKTHU 00Z 07-MAR 2.3 -8.3 1018 77 41 0.00 546 531 THU 06Z 07-MAR 2.1 -8.2 1017 78 84 0.02 546 532 THU 12Z 07-MAR 2.0 -7.3 1016 79 96 0.09 545 532 THU 18Z 07-MAR 1.5 -5.4 1016 87 99 0.17 546 533 FRI 00Z 08-MAR 1.2 -7.9 1017 81 98 0.24 547 533 FRI 06Z 08-MAR 0.4 -7.6 1015 88 97 0.27 546 534 FRI 12Z 08-MAR -0.5 -6.4 1015 88 99 0.27 545 533 FRI 18Z 08-MAR 0.6 -4.8 1017 81 99 0.28 548 535 SAT 00Z 09-MAR 2.9 -3.7 1020 66 89 0.10 553 537 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Messenger and Bob get blitzed...but other than that...i didn't like the trend...it was pretty significant for a storm on the doorstep. It really was about a 20 mile shift...I'm not sure much can be deduced from that. Looking at the H7 low and the 90% RH and the 850mb inflow...its really not that different. QPF will prob fluctuate more than that actual synoptics. I'm still pretty bullish here. It may not work out, but I don't think I'm changing my thinking much based on that run. It wasn;'t different enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Messenger and Bob get blitzed...but other than that...i didn't like the trend...it was pretty significant for a storm on the doorstep. i thought bos was 1.50 on qpf? scooter has been pretty skeptial of anything near warning snow for his area or bos....and you could say i am very much so as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 It really was about a 20 mile shift...I'm not sure much can be deduced from that. Looking at the H7 low and the 90% RH and the 850mb inflow...its really not that different. QPF will prob fluctuate more than that actual synoptics. I'm still pretty bullish here. It may not work out, but I don't think I'm changing my thinking much based on that run. It wasn;'t different enough for me. Usually I pull the plug first but the models seemed to have a collective jiggle. Nam got heavier, euro lighter, ggem roughly the same. Rgem a tickle north...something in the init has them handling some piece differently. The gfs is almost there with the hose, really it is there. Of note I need a mulligan. What I thought was sand blowing in the windows is actually melted pellets and wet snow flakes. At 36 it flipped to snow in that last band. If it ever did start ripping just to my west should do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 i thought bos was 1.50 on qpf? They were but its preciously close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 It really was about a 20 mile shift...I'm not sure much can be deduced from that. Looking at the H7 low and the 90% RH and the 850mb inflow...its really not that different. QPF will prob fluctuate more than that actual synoptics. I'm still pretty bullish here. It may not work out, but I don't think I'm changing my thinking much based on that run. It wasn;'t different enough for me. oh i realize that but 20 miles makes a big difference when you're kind already flirting the edge, no? I'd be worried if I lived in Boston...the loss of the good rates on that run was pretty significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 i thought bos was 1.50 on qpf? People are forgetting that today models were underdone with the inflow when it did setup. There's going to be a really sharp cutoff up until the s/w interacts. Providing it does occur what's modeled as 1.5"....jmho if the band does make it as it crawls along it will pound in that band just like it did down on the Delmarva today and we will see higher totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 oh i realize that but 20 miles makes a big difference when you're kind already flirting the edge, no? I'd be worried if I lived in Boston...the loss of the good rates on that run was pretty significant. Don't forget for whatever reason it seems like the 0z euro has pulsed down with this storm and then the 12z pulses up. This is I think the 4 th run in a row to have that happen...may be a coincidence but as will said the dynamics looked fairly similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 0z hrrr shows 850 temps getting near 0c for E mass/ Ne mass by mid tomm evening. about 25 caution flags flying on this one....esp getting good rates N into bos and just north even close to the e coast. well see if i could pick one area i really don't know wether it would be 1k will less firehose potential or a place like borderland state park , N easton, ma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 oh i realize that but 20 miles makes a big difference when you're kind already flirting the edge, no? I'd be worried if I lived in Boston...the loss of the good rates on that run was pretty significant. I'm admittedltly worried...but this was a low confidence forecast to begin with. I understood that going in. But the whole look is "good looking" to me for here...the E LLJ turning N with time....and banking up against the hills usually does well here. I could def bust. But I think getting too into every 15 or 20 mile trend will make you go nuts...I would have rathered it trend the other way...but its so close that I don't feel terrible. I felt the same way about 2/24. This one may not work out, but I will stick with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.