ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 What are your thoughts for this area WIll? I think Union gets 6-10...prob less for you, but I think you can make 6"....hard part is qpf there...you may be too far west until the 2nd shortwave comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 You aren't snowing heavily or even moderately....if you can do that...then forget temps being a big concern. yes but it's midnite....and during the day tommorrow ...it will prob be a 36/32 deal where i pound down to 34 barely accumulating snow...i shouldn't say probably ....but it's a flag. If you were in my spot and you look'd outside i think it would be a concern, aren't 850 temps moderating tommorrow up to like -4 or -5 . I just think it's an issue during the day tommorrow regardless of winds turning more NNE. It will be snow yes , esp when /if i tcomes down....but will accumulate.....34 aint' gonna cut it. These -9c 850's moderate to our NE a bit and i don't know ...not trying to be too weenish but it is what it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 We actually have pretty cold BL temps advecting in...its not an arctic high, but it isn't 2010 either. It def would help if this airmass were fresher though. Yeah. Not a fan of this model, but the HRRR is bullish. Ginxy you are in tune with the coastal stuff. This is a beating already. Roof shingles be flying. Was just helping a neighbor secure a blown out window down on the beach road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Yeah. Not a fan of this model, but the HRRR is bullish. Ginxy you are in tune with the coastal stuff. This is a beating already. Roof shingles be flying. Was just helping a neighbor secure a blown out window down on the beach road. News folks were saying the coastal flooding could very well be worse than in the blizzard for the same spots. Is the HRRR any good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 yes but it's midnite....and during the day tommorrow ...it will prob be a 36/32 deal where i pound down to 34 barely accumulating snow...i shouldn't say probably ....but it's a flag. If you were in my spot and you look'd outside i think it would be a concern, aren't 850 temps moderating tommorrow up to like -4 or -5 . I just think it's an issue during the day tommorrow regardless of winds turning more NNE. It will be snow yes , esp when /if i tcomes down....but will accumulate.....34 aint' gonna cut it. These -9c 850's moderate to our NE a bit and i don't know ...not trying to be too weenish but it is what it is If it comes down hard, you don't have to worry about temps...if it stays fairly light, then you do...that simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 winds are def howling....i mean it's a cold wet wind and it's building up quite the seas. plum island marshfield revere scitutate....what a site tommorrow eve/ fri am tides Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 i would love for the euro to show that gl energy really phase and pinwheel our firehose over our hiney's....and not let that ull sneak to far away. i gotta think the euro is about to be ...if not yet....locking in tonite on this complex system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 News folks were saying the coastal flooding could very well be worse than in the blizzard for the same spots. Is the HRRR any good? No I don't think so, it's been spitting out accumulated snowfall to the Delmarva where it's been roasty all night. RGEM was odd in that tick N. Maybe a hiccup but it threw me off a little. You can kind of see what it was doing taking this enormous increasing firehose to the ESE and tosses it more north this time. GFS and UKIE kind of like hanging it out off Portsmouth/Gulf of Maine too. GGEM looked fine, GEFS looked fine, etc etc. RAP is locked and loaded backing the band in. Probably the Euro will just have the normal wobbles. Spitting snow now at 36 degrees as the first of the real precip starts to move in, my dewpoint is down to 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Looking at meteocentre for eastern MA the models are really all so close, nowcast time. The UK and GFS take this plume of moisture coming in from the ESE and it ends up off Gloucester instead of getting wrapped over land, maybe the others are being too slow, maybe those two are a little off on the block. Makes a huge difference. Despite what were some intense precip rates down in the Delmarva, they didn't accumulate much at all I don't think and that's a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Euro has initialized...should be interesting. I expect another big hit. PErhaps not the magnitude of 12z and 00z last night, but still big. The previous solutions were like monster totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 0z nam really hammers us with the nose of that 850 inflow it really pounds the living day lights out of the EWB area just after 4 am tonite and thru S RI SE mass thru the day tommorrow then lifts north and clobbers boston. i mean it's really not even far from boston area from dawn ...and it hangs on thru fri am perhaps sinking south again. that's a 5 sd inflow. gfs still teases us with that nose of the inflow well ESE of cape cod. i pray it's wrong i wish i had the euro stats..maybe w underground has the 850 anomalies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Euro NW with the precip in SE MA through 12h vs 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Euro is also stronger with the energy in the lakes through 12h...im sure that will help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Euro has initialized...should be interesting. I expect another big hit. PErhaps not the magnitude of 12z and 00z last night, but still big. The previous solutions were like monster totals. Well, I hope for a lot of reasons it doesn't change much or even ticks stronger. I'd like to see it rip for you guys. I don't believe I'm going to be able to cool here, this is just an epic fetch. 0z nam really hammers us with the nose of that 850 inflow it really pounds the living day lights out of the EWB area just after 4 am tonite and thru S RI SE mass thru the day tommorrow then lifts north and clobbers boston. i mean it's really not even far from boston area from dawn ...and it hangs on thru fri am perhaps sinking south again. that's a 5 sd inflow. gfs still teases us with that nose of the inflow well ESE of cape cod. i pray it's wrong i wish i had the euro stats..maybe w underground has the 850 anomalies? It's out there now check the water vapor. It's coming. You can see on the NMM and others that's what slings due west actually into the region. Not going to lie it looks a little "north" to me right now which is what some of the models did (UK/RGEM/GFS) but it may be me being exhausted. If the Euro ever did fold this would be one for the ages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Hair SE of the 12z now at 18h with the precip core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Still slightly SE at 24h...hammering coastal MA though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Still slightly SE at 24h...hammering coastal MA though. CC or more up thru BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Still slightly SE at 24h...hammering coastal MA though. How's the temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Still E at 30h...but it actually hits E MA harder...just west though isn't hit as hard as 12z...like 128 and inward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Still E at 30h...but it actually hits E MA harder...just west though isn't hit as hard as 12z...like 128 and inward. LOL, what a nightmare forecast. But also if it pans out what an impressive forecast performance by this model. IF it played out this way not too shabby by the CMC stuff either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Hitting interior and W SNE harder at 36 vs 48 on 12z...the lakes energy is north of 12z...so it almost connects with the E MA firehose better giving a better shot to W SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Making up more gorund at 42...the firehose stays intact better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Thanks for the frequent updates Darth Vader....much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Thanks for the frequent updates Darth Vader....much appreciated. lol yeah...what would we do without Darth Vader on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 QPF through 48h: 0.50": All of SNE up to nearly CON 0.75": LWM-ORH-BDL-HVN (yes weird shape...but really tight gradient near ORH and LWM) 1.00: KGAY to just SE of ORH to just E of GON 1.50: BOS-PVD 2.00": GHG-UUU and all east or southeast of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 lol yeah...what would we do without Darth Vader on this forum. I don't know about you but I'd probably be sleeping. My temp briefly dropped to 35.7 with that little wedge of precip, back to 36.1 I don't think I can snow here until I get a more northerly wind, even if cats are falling out of the sky in 3-4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 lol yeah...what would we do without Darth Vader on this forum. it wouldn't be pretty , left to our own devices lmao now lets hope euro doesn't slide E at 12z tommorrow. As messenger would say when the euro trends..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2013 Author Share Posted March 7, 2013 We're lost in model bliss but now cast is sucky - not to troll on the exuberance going on, but that shredded rad for a system that's already maxed and depending on later developments is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomasnh Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Will what do you think for Amherst, NH? .5" What do you think 3-4 inches of snow or are we going to be to warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 A lot of the shifts in the Euro are just qpf nuances...it still hammers the same general areas...at this point, you just hae to look at radar tomorrow. My guess is that milford MA won't get 1.30" of qpf and ORH 0.75"....we'd probably get in on that...esp with a bit of upslope. The Euro lifts the frehose northward and really looks good synoptically...I actually expected slightly better W of ORH than what it showed...but remember that model QPF is the worst scoring parameter, so don't take each value too hard...just use it as guidance and integrate into local forecasting knowledge and the synoptics of the system....its a monster hit for E MA though...big firehose...the biggest question would be the initial stuff late tonight and into tomorrow morning...that stuff could add or subtract half an inch or more of qpf for E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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