ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I doubt the Euro ticks down a lot...it will prob tick down a touch since 2.5" of qpf in SE MA and 2.25" in BOS is pretty excessive and unlikely to verif in my book....but if it still has a large area of 1.5"+, then its game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Updated forecast for 11 Solid. Guessing most/all of the 3-6" comes from tomorrow/tomorrow night? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsw Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Sneaky fujiwara rotates the firehose north. I'll look this up too in the morning. Too tired. This might be banter or whatever, but what is Fufiwara? In this case. I thought it was applied to hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 If the euro ticks down, then it's not much of a win since the GFS has been on the drier trend since yesterday...more of a compromise anyways. The differences is more to the fact that the GFS was just unstable with 3' of snow two days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I'll look this up too in the morning. Too tired. This might be banter or whatever, but what is Fufiwara? In this case. I thought it was applied to hurricanes. Fujiwara effect is when two storms get in close proximity to eachother, they will tend pinwheel around eachother in counter clockwise fashion for N. Hemisphere folk...why you see the lakes low start going south and the ULL to our SE comes north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 It doesn't sound like you were paying it any regard the last 5 runs, so why would it factor into your thinking now? Up to this point it delivered a big snowstorm that you felt wouldn't happen because of daylight, northeast winds and too warm at the surface. So what's the point in waiting? If it stays the same I doubt you'd change your mind, JMHO. You think/have thought this was a nothing storm whether it was 2.5" QPF or .5". Make the call now based on the guidance tonight, just some rain and wind for eastern MA. It can tick down and still deliver snow, it just doesn't have to provide the fairly epic totals it had earlier due to the wrap down. What are you talking about? I don't think the GFS does much here so if the euro comes closer to the GFS..why should I be excited? I think people are being too generous in their minds with snowfall right now in the lower elevations and near the coast. If the euro were to amp up, I'd feel better..but I can't say it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 What are you talking about? I don't think the GFS does much here so if the euro comes closer to the GFS..why should I be excited? I think people are being too generous in their minds with snowfall right now in the lower elevations and near the coast. If the euro were to amp up, I'd feel better..but I can't say it will. euro is pretty amped, if it holds serve I think folks can start to get excited. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 euro is pretty amped, if it holds serve I think folks can start to get excited. -skisheep Eh, it would be ok here..but better in areas like ORH where high elevations locks in snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Ocean effect meet synoptic, boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Nice Ryan hopefully that works, better yet hopefully you bumpity bump up again tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Eh, it would be ok here..but better in areas like ORH where high elevations locks in snow. The block has brought some rotted putrid marine garbage into eastern Canada. It's hurting us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Phil mentioned it on Twitter, sure looks like TS bands. Ripping winds coast is taking a whooping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The block has brought some rotted putrid marine garbage into eastern Canada. It's hurting us. We actually have pretty cold BL temps advecting in...its not an arctic high, but it isn't 2010 either. It def would help if this airmass were fresher though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Gotta love the Gulf of Maine!!_Even in Weymouth its 36 with aa drizzly mix. A much shorter fall to 32 than down where DC yesterday was 53 for a high In the last hour from the buoy at Montauk Point about 23 nm south of Montauk, LI, the air temp was 37 with a water temp of almost 41. Of note the winds are from the NNE at 37 kt with gusts to 46 kt. Once we rock here and the winds back more to the NE and NNE, the snow should be here to stay, at least here in the Bos SW suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 crazy stufff... 911 Operator @911BUFF MASSACHUSETTS: @REDCROSS HAS SHELTERS OPEN TONIGHT IN SALISBURY AND PLYMOUTH AHEAD OF TONIGHT’S STORM. STAY WARM AND SAFE. #911BUFF Retweeted by Todd Gutner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Eduggs, BTW, now I'd blend the GFS. It totally caved in every aspect. I don't see it that way at all. Where we are right now looks like a Euro/GGEM/GFS compromise from a day ago. From my perspective, it seems like you pick and choose data to support a preordainted thesis. The key questions, as they have been for a day or two now, are 1) will the high QPF of the hi-res models verify (including Euro) and 2) how much of that QPF will fall as snow. There is also a question of the intensity of precip further west with the inverted trof. But at least for EMA, those two are the key questions. I think all of the globals have shown the same basic evolution for a half a dozen runs now. I never saw the big differences aloft in the GFS that you repeatedly described. In fact I saw much bigger errors at 500mb on the NAM than the GFS. QPF and temps have been the big questions marks... and yet to be resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Blend the GFS, the RGEM and whatever the Euro shows and run with it. The GFS is finally on the same page and seems plausible. Euro will probably tick down tonight, JMHO. Seriously, this doesn't make any sense. The GFS barely changed from 18z to 0z. Don't let the QPF graphical charts fool you. Those would literally change every 10 minutes if you ran the model like the rapid refresh. There is an implicit error bar associated with model QPF forecasts that easily exceeds the difference between the past two runs. If you think the GFS is now on the same page and plausible, it wasn't too far off the past 3 runs. I agree I would blend the models and go with that for QPF. But I would still hedge conservative with snowfall conversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 GGEM is a total crush job for SNE....it fujiwaras the firehose into almost the whole area and the 2nd shortwave really enhances it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The GFS and Ukie (to a slightly lesser extent) are on the island alone right now for pretty much meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 GGEM meh down here, not as bullish on the trough as the RGEM. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 We actually have pretty cold BL temps advecting in...its not an arctic high, but it isn't 2010 either. It def would help if this airmass were fresher though. Huge difference at Logan vs. Worcester hills. Could be >5 degree difference. I don't see much CAA for areas right along the shore. Back in ENY and WSNE there is some cool, dry air drainage in the BL. But I think further east there is definitely some marine taint. Just inland with a little elevation should get clobbered. But it will take a ton of QPF to get 10" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 GGEM meh down here, not as bullish on the trough as the RGEM. -skisheep The RGEM looked a bit SW compared to the Euro...the onverted troughs tend to trend NE anyway with time...and with a synoptic storm to its east...the most likely scenario isit gets generally absorbed into it...though it should still rotate down to you and probably give you a shot at a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Huge difference at Logan vs. Worcester hills. Could be >5 degree difference. I don't see much CAA for areas right along the shore. Back in ENY and WSNE there is some cool, dry air drainage in the BL. But I think further east there is definitely some marine taint. Just inland with a little elevation should get clobbered. But it will take a ton of QPF to get 10" of snow. Here is the 925mb analysis...we have a feed of lower BL temps...the sfc is still an issue for lower down and even more right on the coast...but this shows that if there is sufficient precip, then even the CP (esp away from the water) will probably do fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Huge difference at Logan vs. Worcester hills. Could be >5 degree difference. I don't see much CAA for areas right along the shore. Back in ENY and WSNE there is some cool, dry air drainage in the BL. But I think further east there is definitely some marine taint. Just inland with a little elevation should get clobbered. But it will take a ton of QPF to get 10" of snow. You do realize winds back from their current ENE to NE and NNE and N as the event rolls in right? The temps are pretty well modeled and show them coming down to 30-31 all the way to BOS per the Euro which has been verifying very well so far on 2m temps (at least judging by how it did in DC/Balt) That 5 degree difference may be the difference between 27 and 32 come tomorrow. So we do in fact have some CAA drainage in addition to dynamic processes from cold temps aloft. I think this spells some decent accumulations and I think the calls for rain will bust pretty bad until you get further down on the south shore. I think the CP with no elevation will do fine away from the coast. Obviously elevation will be a big help especially during the day so MQE for example will probably be a local jackpot. You saw how cold that CHH sounding that Coastal posted was right? Edit: Will beat me to it, but yea, what Will said. I'm with Rollo on this storm, I'm feeling a positive bust, but I can definitely see how it would fail too, I just don't buy it given all the data and soundings and etc available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 GGEM is a total crush job for SNE....it fujiwaras the firehose into almost the whole area and the 2nd shortwave really enhances it. Yeah I really like the GGEM outside of western CT. But it still keeps the really heavy QPF just offshore. Someone would probably get double digit snow out of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Here is the 925mb analysis...we have a feed of lower BL temps...the sfc is still an issue for lower down and even more right on the coast...but this shows that if there is sufficient precip, then even the CP (esp away from the water) will probably do fine I'm worried about surface temps for coastal sections. I'm not saying I expect liquid precip to dominate, but I expect ratios to be pretty low outside of the interior hills. Lots of people see 1" liquid and assume a foot of snow. In this scenario with that kind of liquid you'd step outside into 6 or 7" of mashed potatoes if you're lucky. And rain is still clearly a possibility along the shore and far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 What are your thoughts for this area WIll? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 You do realize winds back from their current ENE to NE and NNE and N as the event rolls in right? The temps are pretty well modeled and show them coming down to 30-31 all the way to BOS per the Euro which has been verifying very well so far on 2m temps (at least judging by how it did in DC/Balt) That 5 degree difference may be the difference between 27 and 32 come tomorrow. So we do in fact have some CAA drainage in addition to dynamic processes from cold temps aloft. I think this spells some decent accumulations and I think the calls for rain will bust pretty bad until you get further down on the south shore. I think the CP with no elevation will do fine away from the coast. Obviously elevation will be a big help especially during the day so MQE for example will probably be a local jackpot. You saw how cold that CHH sounding that Coastal posted was right? Edit: Will beat me to it, but yea, what Will said. I'm with Rollo on this storm, I'm feeling a positive bust, but I can definitely see how it would fail too, I just don't buy it given all the data and soundings and etc available. Oh yeah, the wind should be NE and even N. That's why I'm expecting mostly snow instead of rain. But it's not like there's cold air in the Maritimes to advect southward into SNE. We are primarily left with insitu cold. I'm hoping for a positive bust and I think there will be good snow. I just don't buy some of the huge totals thrown around earlier today. I prefer the more conservative NWS forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 We actually have pretty cold BL temps advecting in...its not an arctic high, but it isn't 2010 either. It def would help if this airmass were fresher though. well if you were 36F right now instead of seeing a fresh snow falling you would prob not be so bullish about the cold BL temps if it gets u to only 34.4 /30 f at midnite like i am. i see all the mesonets in the area around 34-35. with dpoint around 30-32. Now if it pounds at nite tonite yes it would accumulate but tommorrow during day i'm skeptical of much accums. I'm just flyin the BL caution flags high on 128 just west of essex county line. if i was back in framingham i'd feel better being further from the coast and where i had a touch of elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 well if you were 36F right now instead of seeing a fresh snow falling you would prob not be so bullish about the cold BL temps if it gets u to only 36/32 f at midnite You aren't snowing heavily or even moderately....if you can do that...then forget temps being a big concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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