mattie g Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Weather is serious bizinizz... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 7, 2013 Author Share Posted March 7, 2013 You guys aren't being objective. The NAM and Euro had this nailed 48 hours out and when it went off with the GFS, there were other things that would tell you that it wasn't a likely outcome. Comparing the 40km NAM to the high-res NAM shows how elevation dependent this storm would be. Everything was against a widespread 6"+ snowfall event: climo, cold air source, location where the low developed. If you're disappointed, it's not because you were mislead, it is because you were too emotional. Saved images When in the **** was I talking to your sorry ass? If you're going to quote troll me you should include the part where I said I nailed my DC forecast. Because I didn't, because I also busted in the Shenandoah Valley by at least 6". I can see why you think my comments are directed at you, probably because you're acting like an arrogant prick. Also if we're going to play the contour game, CWG had DC at the western edge of your 8" contour, wouldn't that mean you're forecast means that you're expecting 8" for DC? How stupid are you. You're acting like a little ****, just waiting to go off on someone because your forecast busted. You were quite clear that we "missed" the key signs that you brilliantly caught onto..and yet your mapped sucked like the rest of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 You were quite clear that we "missed" the key signs that you brilliantly caught onto..and yet your mapped sucked like the rest of us You've obviously have been getting a lot of crap lately, and you're taking this all at a personal level. You knew going into this that your forecast was very uncertain given marginal conditions, which is what I was saying. This was a very difficult forecast that was beyond our skill and the model's skill in the DC area. But outside of that area they actually did impressively well. After the storm though, everyone is acting like they forgot all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 You've obviously have been getting a lot of crap lately, and you're taking this all at a personal level. You knew going into this that your forecast was very uncertain given marginal conditions, which is what I was saying. This was a very difficult forecast that was beyond our skill and the models skill in the DC area. But outside of that area they actually did impressively well. The models were accurate in about 25% of the areas affected by the deformation band. The southern edge of the deform band in the RIC area was competely hosed...most of the deform band over MD/DC/eastern NOVA was much weaker than forecast. The models blew chunks on a 12-24 hour forecast. All of them. Even King Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The models were accurate in about 25% of the areas affected by the deformation band. The southern edge of the deform band in the RIC area was competely hosed...most of the deform band over MD/DC/eastern NOVA was much weaker than forecast. The models blew chunks on a 12-24 hour forecast. All of them. Even King Euro. Are you only commenting on my statement about the models handling the storm well, outside of NOVA and MD, or are you saying that one should give more credence to shifts in the models in the final 12-24hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Are you only commenting on my statement about the models handling the storm well, outside of NOVA and MD, or are you saying that one should give more credence to shifts in the models in the final 12-24hrs? I'm saying none of the models handled this storm well. Inside or outside NOVA/DC/MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I'm saying none of the models handled this storm well. Inside or outside NOVA/DC/MD. Within a 12-24 hour period, I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Within a 12-24 hour period, I agree But they did good before then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 But they did good before then? Yeah, the nam/hi-res nam was almost spot for SWVA, West Virginia, and Central VA 48 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Yeah, the nam/hi-res nam was almost spot for SWVA, West Virginia, and Central VA 48 hours out If the model sucks at 12-24 hours, then nailing it at 48 hours is coincidence at best. As dtk and chris87 have reminded us, newer model runs closer to t = 0 are more accurate. The 12z GFS at 48 hours is more accurate than the 6z GFS at 54 hours. So the 4km NAM at 48 hours being more "right" than the 4km NAM at 12 hours is random dumb luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 If the model sucks at 12-24 hours, then nailing it at 48 hours is coincidence at best. As dtk and chris87 have reminded us, newer model runs closer to t = 0 are more accurate. The 12z GFS at 48 hours is more accurate than the 6z GFS at 54 hours. So the 4km NAM at 48 hours being more "right" than the 4km NAM at 12 hours is random dumb luck. TIL, but they weren't haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Yeah, the nam/hi-res nam was almost spot for SWVA, West Virginia, and Central VA 48 hours out Maybe this is the right time to alarm you that despite the money we put into our operational models and such, and that they are heavily improved, they are not perfect. Being in weather for years can inform the people who are not as knowledgeable as others and don't post that a computer is not going to fully predict the proper situation. I believe models grasped the concept appropriately at a longer range, but if they cannot hold their solution, despite initial success, that essentially tarnishes what they had going for them. I'm with WxUSAF that the models performed poorly. The evolution of the storm was completely different, even if you believe they nailed the totals in certain areas. (That relates to getting something right for the wrong reasons). The deform as stated was a key asset to properly predicting a storm like this, and the WAA precip initially being so juiced threw a wrench in the models as well. I wouldn't be claiming a victory, your forecast may have not been the worst one here, but besides a select few, no one truly won on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 7, 2013 Author Share Posted March 7, 2013 You've obviously have been getting a lot of crap lately, and you're taking this all at a personal level. You knew going into this that your forecast was very uncertain given marginal conditions, which is what I was saying. This was a very difficult forecast that was beyond our skill and the model's skill in the DC area. But outside of that area they actually did impressively well. After the storm though, everyone is acting like they forgot all that. fair enough.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I personally think it is funnier that SeanVA made a map when there was still great model divergence and put places in his 4-8" contour that got bare ground and now is back patting..... His snow forecast was better than most trained meteorologists forecasts...including LWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 His snow forecast was better than most trained meteorologists forecasts...including LWX. A broken clock is right twice a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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