Deck Pic Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Feel free to add to the list - Higher Resolution makes it a go-to model in the short range vs the Globals - Thermal profiles are the best since CAD is not a factor - QPF is more accurate because the globals cannot pick up on the mesoscale features like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 consistently scores high in verification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Globals cannot pick up on banding and dynamics and deform so the NAM's ending time of 8 hours later than the other models with wraparound on Friday is probably the best choice for timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 They all sucked one way or another. The Euro with that ridiculous bowling ball off the SC coast. The GFS's NW track and flip to super-warm soundings. The NAM's, well, everything. The only thing they all seemed to hit was that the surface temps would be in the mid-30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 They all sucked one way or another. The Euro with that ridiculous bowling ball off the SC coast. The GFS's NW track and flip to super-warm soundings. The NAM's, well, everything. The only thing they all seemed to hit was that the surface temps would be in the mid-30s. Maybe we should all use the model Tenman Johnson uses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Maybe we should all use the model Tenman Johnson uses. I'm sure the pressure/temp benchmark model would still beat the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 A solution based 50% on NWP and 50% on march climo would have yielded a forecast pretty close to what we experienced in Leesburg. Today's forecast appeared to be heavily influenced by NWP and little if any climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 What the heck do you expect from government programmers? Seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Seriously? He is a putz ignore him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 You guys aren't being objective. The NAM and Euro had this nailed 48 hours out and when it went off with the GFS, there were other things that would tell you that it wasn't a likely outcome. Comparing the 40km NAM to the high-res NAM shows how elevation dependent this storm would be. Everything was against a widespread 6"+ snowfall event: climo, cold air source, location where the low developed. If you're disappointed, it's not because you were mislead, it is because you were too emotional. Saved images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 NYC just got NAM'd. Shifted tonights precip 70 miles further offshore in one run. Of course tomorrow nights 10 inches in NW NJ may still verify.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 You guys aren't being objective. The NAM and Euro had this nailed 48 hours out and when it went off with the GFS, there were other things that would tell you that it wasn't a likely outcome. Comparing the 40km NAM to the high-res NAM shows how elevation dependent this storm would be. Everything was against a widespread 6"+ snowfall event: climo, cold air source, location where the low developed. If you're disappointed, it's not because you were mislead, it is because you were too emotional. Saved images lol. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 lol. That is all. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The nam is going to nail the first 100+ day at hr 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 ITT we pretend we are the NYC forum...where whichever model shows snow is the best one. LOL @ the NAM going nuts in NYC on its 00z run, this model needs to be severely upgraded or just trashed. It's embarrassing for the United States. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Here's what the NAM did to us today, except it was more painful and less funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 7, 2013 Author Share Posted March 7, 2013 You guys aren't being objective. The NAM and Euro had this nailed 48 hours out and when it went off with the GFS, there were other things that would tell you that it wasn't a likely outcome. Comparing the 40km NAM to the high-res NAM shows how elevation dependent this storm would be. Everything was against a widespread 6"+ snowfall event: climo, cold air source, location where the low developed. If you're disappointed, it's not because you were mislead, it is because you were too emotional. Saved images Do you have a link to your DC forecast predicting no snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Seriously? Jmike has the tendency to say dumb things, like the one in this thread. He's a good egg though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 7, 2013 Author Share Posted March 7, 2013 This is pathetic. You guys aren't being objective. The NAM and Euro had this nailed 48 hours out and when it went off with the GFS, there were other things that would tell you that it wasn't a likely outcome. Comparing the 40km NAM to the high-res NAM shows how elevation dependent this storm would be. Everything was against a widespread 6"+ snowfall event: climo, cold air source, location where the low developed. If you're disappointed, it's not because you were mislead, it is because you were too emotional. Saved images Exactly GREAT CALL DUDE!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 We all got suckered in by the NAM. I still do think it has better resolution and thermal profiles within a certain time frame vs the globals. GFS followed it's lead within 12 hours of the storm, so it wasn't just the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39631-the-nam-promises-a-march-snowstorm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 It's probably best the outsiders don't show up in this forum today with taunts, trolling and I told you so. Probably should wait to the weekend at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39631-the-nam-promises-a-march-snowstorm/ DS is the man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 7, 2013 Author Share Posted March 7, 2013 DS is the man. I personally think it is funnier that SeanVA made a map when there was still great model divergence and put places in his 4-8" contour that got bare ground and now is back patting..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I personally think it is funnier that SeanVA made a map when there was still great model divergence and put places in his 4-8" contour that got bare ground and now is back patting..... Yeah, you brought the burnsauce to the party with his quotes and this his map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 7, 2013 Author Share Posted March 7, 2013 You guys aren't being objective. The NAM and Euro had this nailed 48 hours out and when it went off with the GFS, there were other things that would tell you that it wasn't a likely outcome. Comparing the 40km NAM to the high-res NAM shows how elevation dependent this storm would be. Everything was against a widespread 6"+ snowfall event: climo, cold air source, location where the low developed. If you're disappointed, it's not because you were mislead, it is because you were too emotional. Saved images yet despite your "prescience" you predicted 4-8" for places in DC metro that got bare ground or a dusting of slush. So exactly how stupid does that make you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Jmike has the tendency to say dumb things, like the one in this thread. He's a good egg though. LOL. I've been working with Fed IT groups for 20 years as a contractor. I speak from experience. Nevertheless it was an unfair broad brush - I have to vent my frustration somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 places in his 4-8" contour that got bare ground and now is back patting..... *cough*DT*cough* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 yet despite your "prescience" you predicted 4-8" for places in DC metro that got bare ground or a dusting of slush. So exactly how stupid does that make you? When in the **** was I talking to your sorry ass? If you're going to quote troll me you should include the part where I said I nailed my DC forecast. Because I didn't, because I also busted in the Shenandoah Valley by at least 6". I can see why you think my comments are directed at you, probably because you're acting like an arrogant prick. Also if we're going to play the contour game, CWG had DC at the western edge of your 8" contour, wouldn't that mean you're forecast means that you're expecting 8" for DC? How stupid are you. You're acting like a little ****, just waiting to go off on someone because your forecast busted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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