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March 6th-8th Ocean Storm Obs


free_man

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This post mortem is blaming ratios for the failed forecast. http://boston.cbslocal.com/2013/03/08/why-did-we-get-so-much-more-snow-than-expected/

 

I am angry about how they make excuses rather than just explaining why they made the call they did and owning the mistake. To pretend that this was completely unexpected when many models picked up on the trend is just disgraceful. Talk about uncertainty, talk about the logic and climo that went into the thinking, and then say we screwed up.

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The wind direction argument is crap. Models had NNE winds..even Phil and I said that would be good to lock in cold near the coast....esp BOS. You have a low that far south with a high to the north..winds aren't going to be 060...we don't have geostrophic winds at the surface.

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The wind direction argument is crap. Models had NNE winds..even Phil and I said that would be good to lock in cold near the coast....esp BOS. You have a low that far south with a high to the north..winds aren't going to be 060...we don't have geostrophic winds at the surface.

Is 3 to 1 even possible? That's pretty much what's floating around in ponds after it snows lol.

The wind argument is ridiculous. I remember poking you over it snowing in the coastal plain on NE winds. You had legitimate concerns over snowfall rates not providing the cooling.

This wind stuff is nonsense unless these guys are far more clueless than we think.

But thinking about it Scott it would explain the cracked out accumulation maps that had snow west of highway 24 (ha).

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The wind direction argument is crap. Models had NNE winds..even Phil and I said that would be good to lock in cold near the coast....esp BOS. You have a low that far south with a high to the north..winds aren't going to be 060...we don't have geostrophic winds at the surface.

 

 

The forecast busted because most mets didn't believe we'd get the qpf the Euro was showing...figured probably 2/3rds of it and spread out enough to keep precip light enough to make it hard to accumulate at the coast. Just my guess there...otherwise there really isn't a valid explanation. BOS was a hard forecast...I was pretty iffy on them too...but I think the interior forecasts were too light from the get-go. NWS BOX first guess was one of the better ones but then they backed off a bit for some reason.

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The forecast busted because most mets didn't believe we'd get the qpf the Euro was showing...figured probably 2/3rds of it and spread out enough to keep precip light enough to make it hard to accumulate at the coast. Just my guess there...otherwise there really isn't a valid explanation. BOS was a hard forecast...I was pretty iffy on them too...but I think the interior forecasts were too light from the get-go. NWS BOX first guess was one of the better ones but then they backed off a bit for some reason.

they backed off a ton. Some of the watch area went to 2-4. Brockton got 24" in that 2-4 zone.

I think you're 100% right.

The wind nonsense is really only valid in interior se ma. Ie west Plymouth carver etc. the difference there would have been a few inches versus 10+ that fell.

I snowed pretty much the entire storm it was just moosh until 2am last night.

Anyway nice work Will. This was a fun one. Not often do we see 30" wet snows in march around Boston

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The forecast busted because most mets didn't believe we'd get the qpf the Euro was showing...figured probably 2/3rds of it and spread out enough to keep precip light enough to make it hard to accumulate at the coast. Just my guess there...otherwise there really isn't a valid explanation. BOS was a hard forecast...I was pretty iffy on them too...but I think the interior forecasts were too light from the get-go. NWS BOX first guess was one of the better ones but then they backed off a bit for some reason.

I think Thursday had a lot to do with that reasoning.

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