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March 6th-8th Ocean Storm Obs


free_man

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What the TV stations didn't show you when they had the footage of Berts in Plymouth is that the ocean came across into the marsh.  I cannot believe what I saw down there today.  Parts of the road washed away.  All along the water there is road damage, huge,huge, HUGE portions of dunes and beach gone even in places that I believe had never historically flooded even in 1978

I wish we had more pics of that stuff on here. I saw some incredible pics on Twitter

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What the TV stations didn't show you when they had the footage of Berts in Plymouth is that the ocean came across into the marsh. I cannot believe what I saw down there today. Parts of the road washed away. All along the water there is road damage, huge,huge, HUGE portions of dunes and beach gone even in places that I believe had never historically flooded even in 1978

It's likely to get worse with time for the coastal communities, everything they lose just makes it easier to flood next time. The most I saw related to flooding on the news today was that house that fell into the ocean.

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Was this a KU do we think? A narrow zone in SNE and the mtns of VA. I'm not sure they'll call this a KU

 

Wasn't that narrow though. I don't know if he'll consider it..maybe in that special consideration he has in the back of the book. I guess I would not be shocked if he did.

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Will it make it thru the mild up?

 

I mentioned in another post that back in April 97 we had 28" and it took a week to melt that.  There was no snow on the ground before that so it was all from that one storm.  It took a week to melt with warmer temps and the only reason it was done in on the 7th day was the high temp was 73.  That was also a month later with a stronger sun.

 

Given that and the base that we had, even though this was less snow, my guess is that it will still be here.  I also think that places in the valley will still have some too.

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I dont want to really bring climate change into this thread. But when it comes to coastal flooding, the sea level has risen 3"+ just since 1978 That means it will take less surge to produce the same effect as in 1978. Of course less houses are lost now in a single event since the more vulnerable ones are already gone. But going forward this means less surge will be needed to result in closing of shore roadways, etc.

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Don, due to the poor snow obs in the late 1990s and early 2000s, the records are a bit off. When I worked with the NWS to piece together snowfall for ORH in those missing years, I have 101.0" as being the 7th highest seasonal total:

1. 1995-1996....132.9" (NWS BOX site has Nov/Dec/Jan correct for that winter but the Feb/Mar/Apr totals are wrong)

2. 1992-1993....120.1"

3. 2002-2003....117.3"

4. 2004-2005....114.3"

5. 1960-1961....104.3"

6. 2000-2001....102.1"

7. 2012-2013....101.0"

Unfortunately we don't have a record of some of these years in the official NCDC database.

 

Those ORH numbers are ridiculous. How can they possibly have so many top seasons in the past 20 years?

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I dont want to really bring climate change into this thread. But when it comes to coastal flooding, the sea level has risen 3"+ just since 1978 That means it will take less surge to produce the same effect as in 1978. Of course less houses are lost now in a single event since the more vulnerable ones are already gone. But going forward this means less surge will be needed to result in closing of shore roadways, etc.

 

 

Not only has sea level risen but a lot of those areas in SE MA and the Cape are already naturally eroding away....the more it gets eaten away, it just becomes more vulnerable anyway as its not being replenished.

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This won't be a KU...April '97 barely was. It will be considered a "near miss" storm.

 

Scraper?

 

Channel 5 had a graphic the storm center was 488 miles away.  LOL.

 

 

My favorite part of the storm was the model runs.  Every 6 hours we'd hear "xxx is east"  or "xxx is south" which would normally have me concerned but before each run I had made sure the Euro was cued up.  Every single time a quick comparison between whatever model had gone "se" would reveal it was just that model adjusting to the Euro.

 

Kevin finally got his days and days of snow.

 

Hour 2x of 40 mph gusts.   FALMOUTH       MIX PCPN  34  32  93 NE21G41

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I mentioned in another post that back in April 97 we had 28" and it took a week to melt that.  There was no snow on the ground before that so it was all from that one storm.  It took a week to melt with warmer temps and the only reason it was done in on the 7th day was the high temp was 73.  That was also a month later with a stronger sun.

 

Given that and the base that we had, even though this was less snow, my guess is that it will still be here.  I also think that places in the valley will still have some too.

Hope you're right man..I think we will too

 

How much did you end up with?

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Those ORH numbers are ridiculous. How can they possibly have so many top seasons in the past 20 years?

 

 

I'm not sure.,..but '93-'94 would be 8th on that list too, lol.

 

Its been a stretch like the late 50s-early 70s for snowfall but more variance with larger seasons mixed in. The former stretch was just basically 17 seasons in a row of either avg or above avg snowfall with maybe 2 or 3 blockbuster winters in there.

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I'm not sure.,..but '93-'94 would be 8th on that list too, lol.

 

Its been a stretch like the late 50s-early 70s for snowfall but more variance with larger seasons mixed in. The former stretch was just basically 17 seasons in a row of either avg or above avg snowfall with maybe 2 or 3 blockbuster winters in there.

 

Seems like it's feast or famine. 

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Why the cut off?  I know Scott tried to explain it some, but I just don't get it?  You are less than 15 miles from me as crow flies.  Looking at the snowfall accum. maps I do see the sharp cut off just east of me.  Crazy stuff.

That area of sinking air was probably a combo of things, but I've NEVER seen a dryslot linger like that.

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Seems like it's feast or famine. 

 

 

Well '07-'08 and '08-'09 were just generically above average...'09-'10 was avg...last year sucked. '06-'07 stunk, though 49.7 isn't total famine....'05-'06 was average.

 

There's def been some larger swings recently...but I don't think its quite been feast or famine like say DC has had.

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Any of us..We would have had to have been commited. I would have smashed furniture in the house

 

I've never seen anything like it. I have theories, but I do kind of understand how it stayed put. I'm surprised Cory didn't smash his accordian and world champion trophies.

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Any of us..We would have had to have been commited. I would have smashed furniture in the house

i would have gone toaster shopping. Didnt someone post an RPM run y'day or the day before that showed pvd getting 1-2" and TAN getting like 35"? The idea want that far off.
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