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March 6th-8th Ocean Storm Obs

free_man

By free_man,
in New England

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted

I just walked the dog and snow is ramping up and in the quiet streets we're up to 5-6 inches.  I'm thinking a foot is possible given the guidance from the wee hours through mid morning and the cold temps modeled all the way to the surface by every piece of guidance.

 

was just gonna post the question...

RAP destroys us 11z-18z... with those rates, lower level temps and sun may be a non-issue, but wondering how temp profiles fare as the diving upper level energy turns the current N winds more easterly

 

if the RAP is right and we stay all snow, all current Boston forecasts will bust low

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SR Airglow

SR Airglow

Posted
Posted

Step away from the GFS. Look at state and then regional and then local radar.

 

-WeatherX

It looks great, and the real heavy stuff dosen't come until later tonight, the morning rush is going to be a giant mess. Now starting to accumulate on roads and sidewalk, it's about time!  dusting now, but there was nothing 5 minutes ago, it has started! perfect timing as well, the nice band is just knocking on the door.

-skisheep

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SR Airglow

SR Airglow

Posted
Posted

This is a special band........checkout dot cams on 95

 

 

Things look pretty nice for ffld cty.........uptons update was pretty special, good times.

Band is about to arrive here, should be nice! What did upton update, I don't see any major changes? Agree things look good for us, still thinking 4-6" locally higher depending on banding.

-skisheep

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

Band is about to arrive here, should be nice! What did upton update, I don't see any major changes? Agree things look good for us, still thinking 4-6" locally higher depending on banding.

-skisheep

afd updates..........march snow is often different this is no exception, however its ripping, its sticking and we have another 12 hours to go.

 

Keep the faith.

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ma blizzard

ma blizzard

Posted
Posted

good read:

FXUS61 KBOX 080259
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 PM EST THU MAR 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG OCEAN STORM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS INTO FRIDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN MILDER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A ROUND OF
SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. MAINLY DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

***WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING***
***HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN***
***CONTINUED STRONG WINDS RESULTING IN POTENTIAL POWER OUTAGES***

10 PM UPDATE...

BANDING OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...POTENTIALLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY
AND AREAL COVERAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING /MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR/. SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE BANDS. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THE EFFECTIVENESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED TO
IMPROVE. THERE STILL ARE SOME CHALLENGES AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE
ACROSS THE CAPE. MUCH OF THIS HINGES UPON THE INTENSITY OF
PRECIPITATION /DYNAMIC COOLING/. LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IS
PRESENTLY FALLING RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION TO FALL IN THE FORM
OF RAIN...EXPECTING CHANGEOVER WITH MODERATE TO HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW. THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

EVALUATING NEAR-TERM MESOSCALE MODELS...MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
AROUND H6-7 IS ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING AGEOSTROPHIC MOTIONS OF
UPSLOPING FLOW /AROUND 35 MPH/ ALONG A WRAPPING TROWAL AXIS
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK /THOUGH OF CONCERN IS THE FACT THAT THE
BETTER TROWAL AXIS MAY END UP ALONG AND EAST OFFSHORE OF CAPE
COD/. THIS ALL A CONSEQUENCE OF A SECONDARY POTENT SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...INVOKING
ELONGATION OF FLOW AND PULLING BOTH MOISTURE AND LIFT WESTWARD
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
EMPHASIZE A POTENT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY H925-85 JET INTO EAST-
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND/.

STRONG MOIST FLUX CONVERGENCE OF HIGHER THETAE AIR COLLOCATED
WITH THE BETTER TROWAL AXIS AROUND H65 COUPLED WITH DECENT LIFT
WITHIN THE VICINITY OF BETTER SNOW GROWTH REGIONS /-12 TO 18C/ OF
8-10 MICROBARS PER SECOND SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BANDS. THERE IS THE HINT OF INCREASING LIFT OF 12-15
MICROBARS PER SECOND TOWARDS MORNING. THE BIGGEST HEADACHE IS THE
DIFFICULTY IN PIN-POINTING THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF SNOW BANDS...
WHERE THE GREATEST IMPACTS AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE FELT. PER LATEST WSR-88D RETURNS...THERE ARE SOME LULLS
BETWEEN THE BANDS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS RHODE ISLAND/. AS WE NEAR THE
END OF THE STORM...MAY SEE NORTH-SOUTH REGIONS OF HEAVIER
ACCUMULATION THAT ARE ONLY BUT AROUND 15 MILES WIDE...LESSER
AMOUNTS EAST AND WEST. FOR NOW...HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT MUCH
OF THE REGION WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS...ESPECIALLY ALONG NORTH
AND EAST FACING SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN. BANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WADE ONSHORE...SWEEPING EAST TO WEST WITH THE MEAN WIND /ROUGHLY
EAST-NORTHEAST/. WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES.

WATCHING SURFACE NORTHERLY WINDS AND ATTENDANT DEWPOINT TEMPS.
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...HAVE SEEN MID TO UPPER 20 DEWPOINTS
SNEAK SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WET-BULBING OF
LOWER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INCREASING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. NUMEROUS REPORTS RECEIVED OF SNOW ACCUMULATING ON
ROADWAYS BETTER MORE SO THAN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS EARLIER
TODAY. FEEL MINS AROUND THE MID-UPPER 20S IS A GOOD BET.

0Z CHATHAM SOUNDING INDICATED 55-60 KT WINDS AROUND H925 OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH WERE MOIST ADIABATIC.
CONSIDERING THE CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE PROFILE AND PRECIPITATION
DRAG PROCESSES...THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT WITH NEAR-TERM
MESOSCALE MODELS FORECASTING NORTHEASTERLY 60 KT WIND AT H925 TO
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THAT WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH WILL
IMPACT EASTERN MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. NO CHANGES TO
THE WIND HEADLINES.

WE ARE ON HAND THIS EVENING 24/7 TO RECEIVE REPORTS...AND GREATLY
APPRECIATE IT. YOU CAN COMMUNICATE WITH US ON TWITTER /NWSBOSTON/
AND/OR ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE. WE ALSO HAVE THE OPTION FOR YOU TO
SUBMIT A STORM REPORT AT OUR WEBPAGE...WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/BOSTON.

&&

 

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TheSnowman

TheSnowman

Posted
Posted

Of all the screw jobs in SNE, I I think I have just bolted myself into the Top 5. I have D-2" all over my yard while Attleboro had 6" 4 hours ago. North Attleboro 6.5" 1.5 hours ago. Tell the boards I'm about to do it exactly the opposite of what Mike Ekster did those couple of years ago .............. but the opposite. Go to Attlehole. I now live in Crumberland.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Nice read above, "one concern they have is better trowal axis alligns along and east of c.c " well c.

 

I am thinking there will be no accumulations right along the water.  Harv had me in the 2-6, he's got 40 years of experience here and did very well on this storm.  That said I don't think we will be able to overcome the marine layer.  A couple of miles inland maybe, but I'm going for just a  little slush here.

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