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March 6th-8th Ocean Storm Obs


free_man

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I actually was going 10-14 for Princeton, lol. Messenger can atest...he PM'd me a couple nights ago. I was feeling a little sick about that for a time yesterday admittedly, but had faith in the firehose/fujiwara....they always seem to to find a way if we are getting hosed from the east.

Good call. They always do well. I mean you figure at worst they crawl there way to 10" anyways in 36 hrs. Can't go wrong with euro ensemble QPF...that seems to be a lock for sure.

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Good call. They always do well. I mean you figure at worst they crawl there way to 10" anyways in 36 hrs. Can't go wrong with euro ensemble QPF...that seems to be a lock for sure.

 

 

My call is probably going to be too low there, lol....I bet Princeton gets 18" or somewhere close. The snow is accumulating so efficiently at 27-28F.

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My call is probably going to be too low there, lol....I bet Princeton gets 18" or somewhere close. The snow is accumulating so efficiently at 27-28F.

 

Well tough to account for banding and small scale stuff like that..lol. That kook DPW guy should be happy anyways up there/

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Fookin kook... anyway... sorry I doubted you.

 

Out the front door a few minutes ago. My son had cleared off the steps and rails at one point...oops

 

 

Lol...you don't have to apologize...I busted in the Feb 27th event. 3" and a change to rain vs 5-9" (higher end for N ORH county)...that one sucked. You win some and lose some. Its humbling game...the minute you get cocky, mother nature has a way of putting you in your place.

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...BRISTOL COUNTY...
   MANSFIELD              9.0   734 PM  3/07  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NORTON                 8.3   727 PM  3/07  HAM RADIO

...NORFOLK COUNTY...
   CANTON                 9.3   902 PM  3/07  GENERAL PUBLIC
   FOXBORO                9.3   940 PM  3/07  SPOTTER
   WALPOLE                8.0   758 PM  3/07  HAM RADIO
   WEST WALPOLE           7.3   704 PM  3/07  HAM RADIO
   RANDOLPH               6.5   706 PM  3/07  TRAINED SPOTTER

 

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...BRISTOL COUNTY...

   MANSFIELD              9.0   734 PM  3/07  TRAINED SPOTTER

   NORTON                 8.3   727 PM  3/07  HAM RADIO

...NORFOLK COUNTY...

   CANTON                 9.3   902 PM  3/07  GENERAL PUBLIC

   FOXBORO                9.3   940 PM  3/07  SPOTTER

   WALPOLE                8.0   758 PM  3/07  HAM RADIO

   WEST WALPOLE           7.3   704 PM  3/07  HAM RADIO

   RANDOLPH               6.5   706 PM  3/07  TRAINED SPOTTER

 

 

 

Boom...interior SE MA up to ORH county....bullish...AWT.

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You get debbied easily. 

I really thought it would focus the firehose to the south, and it did, but temps here have really aided. Just far enough south that I can cash in... Nev got above freezing all day, so once the sunset it has gone to town.

 

I mean, Feb 27th many folks on here with degrees seemed to have me getting 9-10" even just before.

 

Learning experience.   Have not heard from my brother in Foxboro for a while, but he is prob over 10" by now

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This is going to be a great night, an inch of snow on the ground, coming down at a steady moderate(really light but it feels moderate) snow, temps slowly dropping, and the RGEM just jacked up the QPF. I'm feeling a positive bust here, haven't had one of those in a long time(2011?).

33.1, SN-, 1sm vis, 1" so far.

-skisheep

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i just noticed pete bouchard's map still has much of southern NH in 3-6. he must not realize that many places have more than 3" already. i am thinking another 4-5 inches here at least. it is coming down fairly well here atm

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I really thought it would focus the firehose to the south, and it did, but temps here have really aided. Just far enough south that I can cash in... Nev got above freezing all day, so once the sunset it has gone to town.

 

I mean, Feb 27th many folks on here with degrees seemed to have me getting 9-10" even just before.

 

Learning experience.   Have not heard from my brother in Foxboro for a while, but he is prob over 10" by now

 

This area (BOS) was probably the one area to throw big flags around. Well, this storm had tons of flags..but all else being relative, this area sucked to forecast. ORH hills has the added benefit of temps so you figure 1" QPF might allow someone to crawl to 10" regardless. And then SE MA with 2" QPF...you figure the dynamics alone will allow for double digits. That's the weird 495 TAN to ORH thing we were saying. Two different reasons to jackpot. 

 

I actually think I'll be a little low with my thinking here..but a lot better than those calling for all rain. I wasn't worried about temps due to warming aloft or marine influence, I was worried about my precip and how strong the rates would be since that would govern temps near ground level. A 2SM 34 snow won't cut it here in March near sea level.

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This area (BOS) was probably the one area to throw big flags around. Well, this storm had tons of flags..but all else being relative, this area sucked to forecast. ORH hills has the added benefit of temps so you figure 1" QPF might allow someone to crawl to 10" regardless. And then SE MA with 2" QPF...you figure the dynamics alone will allow for double digits. That's the weird 495 TAN to ORH thing we were saying. Two different reasons to jackpot. 

 

I actually think I'll be a little low with my thinking here..but a lot better than those calling for all rain. I wasn't worried about temps due to warming aloft or marine influence, I was worried about my precip and how strong the rates would be since that would govern temps near ground level. A 2SM 34 snow won't cut it here in March near sea level.

 

 

The frigid (relatively speaking) 925mb temps were a good signal for lower sfc temps...even at BOS when the precip wasn't heavy in hindsight...at night. I was unsure on BOS too...but its hard to stay really warm when its precipitating and 925mb is -5 to -6C

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Radar fillin in, s monads dumpin thru 495 , startin to rip here as well. I need the flow to back more e, it seems a ne flow always has some trouble generating solid precip shield off se nh, ne mass, maybe dry air from land lessens lift?or who knows (bad luck) but I guess it backs shortly after midnite. Radar looks good for now (off ne mass)

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Canton 9.3"? That's like 10 miles SW of here..not even.

 

There's a lot of snow right down along 138 into Easton. 

 

Boom...interior SE MA up to ORH county....bullish...AWT.

 

Yep.  Let's see how this next round does.

 

Great news guys, GFS is almost there, 1 more run it should have it nailed down.  Definitely wetter this run

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The frigid (relatively speaking) 925mb temps were a good signal for lower sfc temps...even at BOS when the precip wasn't heavy in hindsight...at night. I was unsure on BOS too...but its hard to stay really warm when its precipitating and 925mb is -5 to -6C

 

Yeah I figured snow given how cold it was, but was it going to rip for greater than 6" and especially at night..or was the best moisture going to stay south. I would have been on easy street if we were 600'..lol. 

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There's a lot of snow right down along 138 into Easton. 

 

 

Yep.  Let's see how this next round does.

 

Great news guys, GFS is almost there, 1 more run it should have it nailed down.  Definitely wetter this run

 

 

The GFS was an absolute catastrophe inside of 60 hours in this system. Just seeing the new 12h map made me LOL. It hasn't had a clue. ITs an awful model within 2-3 days of a big storm aside from the blind squirrel.

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