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March 6th-8th Ocean Storm Obs


free_man

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This is a weird one, for sure.

 

Difficult to trust temps and not a lot of great model consensus in a pretty tight time frame. Felt like big bust potential, so expectations had to be kept low. Now that it looks like it will do just what the Euro said it might do snow-wise for the last two days, it has the feel of a potential overachiever.

Great post. People at work wondering why I was so quiet about it....lol.

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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

***WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH

HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN***

4 PM UPDATE...RADAR ECHOES HAVE FILLED BACK IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE

AREA WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS...MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN

CONNECTICUT AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN RHODE ISLAND. STILL...ALL

PRECIP IS FALLING AS SNOW. EVEN HYANNIS AND MARTHA/S VINEYARD

HAVE SWITCHED OVER TO SNOW. RAIN IS STILL FALLING ON NANTUCKET

AND THE OUTER CAPE. THEY MAY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FOR AN HOUR OR

TWO TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL EXPECT MUCH OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS

EAST OF HYANNIS AND ON NANTUCKET TO BE NO MORE THAN AN INCH OR

TWO.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING ABOUT 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTING TO

40 TO 45 MPH MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 50 TO 60 MPH ON

THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE AND HEAVY PRECIP BRINGING THESE

STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

TONIGHT...A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES

INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...PULLING ENERGY FROM THE OCEAN STORM BACK

TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN THE MODEL OF CHOICE WAS THE

ECMWF. ITS QPF AND TEMPERATURE FIELDS HAVE INITIALIZED WELL BOTH

AT 12Z AND THE PREVIOUS 00Z RUN. WHILE THERES STILL A LITTLE BIT

OF UNCERTAINTY...MAINLY WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF AND SNOW

AMOUNTS...ALL THE MODELS HAVE REALLY COME BETTER IN LINE WITH THE

GENERAL PATTERN. TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL IN THE CONNECTICUT

VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD COOL

ENOUGH AFTER THE SUN SETS THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE

QUICKLY.

THE HIGHEST QPF /AND THUS THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS/ ARE EXPECTED

ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND PARTS OF NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

THE ECMWF IS PREDICTING ABOUT AN INCH OF QPF IN THIS AREA DURING

THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. USING THIS QPF AND THE ACCOMPANYING SNOWFALL

EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE...WE HAVE UPGRADED WINTER WEATHER

ADVISORIES IN ESSEX...SUFFOLK...AND EASTERN NORFOLK COUNTIES TO

WINTER STORM WARNINGS. WE ALSO ADDED CAPE COD TO THE WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY... LARGELY FOR THE UPPER CAPE /AREAS WEST OF

HYANNIS...ESPECIALLY FALMOUTH AND WEST TO THE CANAL.

&&

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Snow starting to palster to trees and bushes and everything else once again.  The sun and slight warm up really saved trees from the 3" that fell during the day. I wonder how they'll fare with the 6"+ we're likely to get overnight.  So far we've been spared power problems in the city but I wonder if this will be the storm that does us in.  I'm thinking it might be just cold enough and windy enough to not see widespread tree damage but we'll see.

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Just got a text from my friend in Lake Placid, light snow up there, they are about the northern extent of precip according to radar, forecast is for less than an inch, although the mountain might get 2", they pull snow out of a hat up there. LL, are the cottonballs accumulating? I'm stuck at work late tonight, won't be home until 8ish or so... :(

-skisheep

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