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March 6th-8th Ocean Storm Obs


free_man

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May have been posted already but here's BOX 715am update

Giggity, giggity, goo.

 

&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 7 AM UPDATE... PREVIOUS FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO TREND TEMPS LOWER ACROSS SE MA WHERE HEAVY PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICAL COOLING IN PROGRESS. PRECIP INTENSITY SUFFICIENT FOR ALL SNOW DOWN TO THE UPPER CAPE AT THE MOMENT INCLUDING MVY AND MIXING AT ACK! 00Z ECMWF MODEL OF CHOICE /WHATS NEW!/ AS ITS QPF AND THERMAL FIELDS MATCHING UP NICELY WITH RADAR AND SURFACE OBS THIS MORNING. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTERS HAVE NOTED BIG BUST POTENTIAL CONTINUES GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPS AND SNOWFALL HINGING ON HEAVY PRECIP/DYNAMICAL COOLING. NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR SOUTHEAST MA FOR POTENTIAL HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS GIVEN THIS IS THE AREA PROGGED TO RECEIVE GREATEST QPF. HOWEVER IF AND WHEN PRECIP SLACKENS PTYPE MAY GO OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. IN ADDITION SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE /ESP ON PAVED SFCS/ IF TEMPS EVEN RISE JUST A FEW DEGS TODAY...WHICH WON/T BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE INCREASING MARCH SUN ANGLE. HOWEVER HEAVY PRECIP CAN OVERCOME THIS. THUS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR PTYPE AND ACCUMULATIONS TOWARDS THE CANAL AND ALONG PLYMOUTH COUNTY COAST. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL STILL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE I-495 AND RT-128 CORRIDORS OF MA AND INTO RI. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. ================================================================= A VERY DIFFICULT AND LOW CONFIDENCE SNOWFALL FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION HAS OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME LOWER DEWPOINT AIR WAS BEING ADVECTED IN FROM NORTH AND COMBINED WITH THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY HAS ALLOWED FOR BOTH WET BULB/DYNAMIC COOLING. MOST AREAS WERE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST MA COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WAS ALLOWING FOR A WARM ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER FOR RAIN CURRENTLY. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIER QPF TODAY WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...GIVEN POSITION OF THE DISTANT OCEAN STORM. LIGHTER PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT THE REST OF THE REGION. NOW THE BIG PROBLEM FOR TODAY IS THAT OUTSIDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SNOW WILL ONLY ACCUMULATE WHEN ITS COMING DOWN MODERATE TO HEAVY GIVEN THE MARGINAL TEMPS/MARCH SUN ANGLE. ITS VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WILL BE... SINCE THERE WILL BE SHARP CUTOFF TO THE HEAVY QPF. BEST AREA MIGHT BE JUST NORTHWEST OF THE TAN TO PVD AREA...INTO SHARON AND FOXBOROUGH AND NORTHWEST RI WHERE THERE IS A BIT OF ELEVATION. ITS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT IF THE SNOW IS COMING DOWN HEAVILY IT WILL ACCUMULATE EVEN ON THE ROADS. WERE JUST UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW FAR NORTHWEST THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF WILL MAKE IT TODAY. ALL WIND HEADLINES MAINTAINED FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN RIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO EXTEND THEM A BIT LONGER FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. &&

 




			
		
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4" in Foxboro and even low elevation Norton. Norton 0.76 SWE.

And there could be a lot more QPF to come for that area and points E and S.  As long as there aren't any ugly surprises in the column, they are going to be seriously bending some trees.  Afternoon heating will probably decrease ratios a little bit, but large aggregate snowflakes should still accumulate.

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Beautiful but what waste dumping with no stickage

That band looked nice, should be here shortly.

-skisheep

 

sun angle doing us in a 9am...LOL...or maybe it's no cold air.

We should get our turn tonight, still looks really nice out though, we got lucky in that the trough is going to be a nightime event, no pesky sun to worry about :)

 

Light snow continues, getting heavier over the past few minutes as a band moves in.

-skisheep

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Sun angle and lower rates doing its thing here which is why I wasn't bullish in BOS (we'll see how it goes tonight..that could amount to more surely), but down south it shows you how it's all about the snow rates and why it's a tough forecast to figure out who gets the heaviest precip. 

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