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March 6th-8th Ocean Storm Obs


free_man

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Yep, nice burst here earlier dropped .25, now almost completely melted.  Tonight is the old toss up, back this way might be too far west, these situations almost always end up north and east.

I'm thinking we might be OK, really every model has close to 1/2 inch of QPF here, I think we are going to be suprised tonight in a good way. If we were dealing with a Norlun I would be more worried, but this seems to be a larger scale feature that's going to hit a wider area, similar to the one over CNE that busted as rain a week or two ago. I don't think we jackpot, but I think 3-5" lollies to 6" is a legit possibility, you probably do better than I being 20 miles NE. Upton still has 4-6" here, and as we have seen this winter, they aren't afraid to cut when they don't like what they see.

-skisheep

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I'm thinking we might be OK, really every model has close to 1/2 inch of QPF here, I think we are going to be suprised tonight in a good way. If we were dealing with a Norlun I would be more worried, but this seems to be a larger scale feature that's going to hit a wider area, similar to the one over CNE that busted as rain a week or two ago. I don't think we jackpot, but I think 3-5" lollies to 6" is a legit possibility, you probably do better than I being 20 miles NE. Upton still has 4-6" here, and as we have seen this winter, they aren't afraid to cut when they don't like what they see.

-skisheep

We shall see..........every model continues to move east with the feature, most noticeably the nam with a massive shift east.

 

No use worrying:) 

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That dry slot needs to eff off

 

It just looks like subsidence between the stuff along the coast and that fronto band over Tolland County area.  Then another subsidence zone to the band over the Berkshires moving into E.NY.  Precip today will likely be transient bands in the interior while the coast stays in that steady/heavier stuff.  Looks like the real heavy stuff though is moving into the Cape at this time though.

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Guess it looks better on radar than it does in person? The one over here was real SN for a while, down to SN- now. What's your take for tonight, Upton sticking with 4-6", does that seem high to you?

-skisheep

Seems a little bullish coming from Upton, but It may not be too far off. The lower end of that range is within reach though. Personally I'd go a little lower with a slightly wider range...2-5". But tough forecast...12z runs could show something different altogether.

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Seems a little bullish coming from Upton, but It may not be too far off. The lower end of that range is within reach though. Personally I'd go a little lower with a slightly wider range...2-5". But tough forecast...12z runs could show something different altogether.

This. I'm not going to feel comfortable with a solution until it's on radar and its snowing here :)

 

The RGEM bumping west a bit at 6z made me more comfortable, it's usually a reliable model, and it's got close to 20mm of QPF here. EURO was about .5" here, correct?

-skisheep

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This. I'm not going to feel comfortable with a solution until it's on radar and its snowing here :)

The RGEM bumping west a bit at 6z made me more comfortable, it's usually a reliable model, and it's got close to 20mm of QPF here. EURO was about .5" here, correct?

-skisheep

I think so...Euro sounded like it got 0.75" back to HVN...0.5" west of there. I just need a little over 3" to break 50" on the year...hoping we can at least manage that.

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I think so...Euro sounded like it got 0.75" back to HVN...0.5" west of there. I just need a little over 3" to break 50" on the year...hoping we can at least manage that.

I think you should get 3" fairly easily.

 

Back to very light 5 dbz kind of stuff, hard to see it out the window. putting it in the books as .3" for the hour of SN this morning, already melted, was nice while it lasted.  Still pads the totals for the storm though and the seasonal total.

 

Radar looks really decrepid, the nice band over central CT is breaking up, lots of light echoes not doing much of anything. Tonight should be the real show, but light snow during the day would be nice(although it might change over to rain for a time later...)

 

-skisheep

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Scooter, this is awesome.  I managed to get up to work.  Took 90 minutes.  Just awesome around the BOX area.  The 2 shots are in Mansfield on I-495 at the Rt 140 exit.

 

Yeah this may be better than I thought down there. I wasn't sure if you guys or someone near there could pull 12"+ but they may..and not just weenie Foxboro or Sharon. Figured a good 5-10 there anyways.

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