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March 6-8 2013 Significant Coastal Storm Observations


earthlight

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Nam absolutely nailed this...even had the snow growth zone lining up with best omegas by 12z...though it ended up not being bad at all up this way before then, good stuff.

 

we've book-ended this winter with 2 overperforming events. Pretty cool

 

 

Yeah, it really did. Obviously in some prior runs, its QPF was too high. But when we got closer to this event, it did a great job showing the banding signals and its snowfall outputs were not too far off in a lot of areas. It definitely out performed the globals. 

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I agree, I hated how people were getting on the Nam with the coastal it was only off by 50 miles with the bands (the Precip was there). The 4k nam was even better with the coastal, it kept the bands just off shore on the sim radar.

It is interesting that this feature would have seemed like the more difficult to forecast when compared to Wednesday's storm, yet most of the models nailed it.

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Banding continues to look nice over NJ. Moderate snow continues.

 

Anyone have a rough idea when this should all end? This event is significantly overperforming. Kudos to the NAM. It absolutely pinpointed what the radar would look like.

I'd say anything after 9, 10:00 is going to have trouble accumulating and temps will climb above freezing anyway. Hopefully it doesn't linger and change to rain

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With regards to the nam, there is some phrase about a blind squirrel. LOL but in all seriousness, i bash it every freaking day cause it sucks. in this situation it actually raised my eyebrow though and ended up being correct...it was useful!

Ha!  It did find a nut...  Many noted that the type of set up was one where it could be useful.  The coastal was a whiff --- but it was the most consistent with this feature from about 72 hours in...

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Awesome storm up here! Totally redeeming the fact that the coastal missed to the east... 8" and snow growth isn't great, but radar looks ok and I wouldn't be surprised to flirt with 10". And at that rate, it'll be time to challenge my Nemo total of 10.8". Looks like the precip shield is collapsing a little to the south and east, but hopefully I can get a couple more bands in.

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