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March 6-8 2013 Significant Coastal Storm Observations


earthlight

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SN

32.7/31

appx. 0.25" accumulation

 

Made it back to Dobbs Ferry travelling on wet highways, and all grassy surfaces are covered here. Streets are still mostly black, but that should change as the temperature continues to drop and the snow gets heavier. Radar looks good for quite a few hours of moderate snow as heavier echoes are back into CT/MA as well. 

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I posted this in the discussion thread, which then got locked and on the Philly Obs thread, but not much action there, so I'm going to try it here also...

 

Can anyone explain the 2-4" amounts in the NWS-Philly snowfall map from 5:28 pm (did they forget to change the map - looks like the last one) vs. the 1-3" amounts for most counties in north/central Jersey (except Sussex/Morris, which have 2-4" WWA's) and the 1-2" amounts in the AFD?  Wish I knew how to paste the snowfall map in here - any help on that?  Link is below, but if they update it, we'll never know what I was looking at.  Thanks...

 

http://www.erh.noaa..../stormtotal.php

 

AFD says much less, i.e., up to 2" in Sussex/Morris to <1" S/E of I-95 (right about where I am in Middlesex):

 

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS SUSSEX AND MORRIS COUNTIES TO LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I195 CORRIDOR OVER NJ, DE AND MD AND NEAR AND SOUTH OF A TTN TO ABE LINE OVER PA....NORTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF ADDITIONAL SNOW, BUT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MARCH SUN ANGLE THAT WILL TAMP DOWN ANY MORNING ACCUMULATIONS.

 

http://forecast.weat...0&highlight=off

 

HWO says:

 

SOME SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD ACCUMULATE 1 TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS THE FARTHER NORTH ONE GOES. THE SNOW COULD RESULT IN SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES.
 

http://forecast.weat...Weather Outlook
 


 

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I posted this in the discussion thread, which then got locked and on the Philly Obs thread, but not much action there, so I'm going to try it here also...

 

Can anyone explain the 2-4" amounts in the NWS-Philly snowfall map from 5:28 pm (did they forget to change the map - looks like the last one) vs. the 1-3" amounts for most counties in north/central Jersey (except Sussex/Morris, which have 2-4" WWA's) and the 1-2" amounts in the AFD?  Wish I knew how to paste the snowfall map in here - any help on that?  Link is below, but if they update it, we'll never know what I was looking at.  Thanks...

 

http://www.erh.noaa..../stormtotal.php

 

AFD says much less, i.e., up to 2" in Sussex/Morris to <1" S/E of I-95 (right about where I am in Middlesex):

 

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS SUSSEX AND MORRIS COUNTIES TO LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I195 CORRIDOR OVER NJ, DE AND MD AND NEAR AND SOUTH OF A TTN TO ABE LINE OVER PA....NORTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF ADDITIONAL SNOW, BUT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MARCH SUN ANGLE THAT WILL TAMP DOWN ANY MORNING ACCUMULATIONS.

 

http://forecast.weat...0&highlight=off

 

HWO says:

 

SOME SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD ACCUMULATE 1 TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS THE FARTHER NORTH ONE GOES. THE SNOW COULD RESULT IN SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

 

http://forecast.weat...Weather Outlook

 

 

really man? squabbling over something like that?  we know its the last snow of the year and all but come on

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really man? squabbling over something like that?  we know its the last snow of the year and all but come on

It's probably not the last snow of the year...all of the models show a huge trough in the east between March 14-18, which is more typical for a last snowfall in this area. The Euro has -16C 850s into NYC at Day 8. I doubt we've seen the last of winter. 

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really man? squabbling over something like that?  we know its the last snow of the year and all but come on

So the map gives me 100% more than the AFD and I should be ok with that?  I'm not asking for them to be perfectly accurate here, since we know that's not possible, but being even 90% consistent isn't asking too much, IMO. 

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If the inverted trough is not even fully formed yet, then this might surprise many NW folks.

Might be a bit premature but those wetter model runs for the HV might of been right all along. Obviously not those insane runs with 1.5"+ but .75- 1.00 may not be far fetched..

 

31.8 w/ lgt to mod snow 

 

1.3" on the ground

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Regarding the snowfall map out of PHI, as far as I know those maps are at least partially automated. The are NOT the basis for the zone forecasts. The are merely a tool that uses model output that is perhaps updated with some human input but they should not be used as an end all.

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