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3/6-7 obs thread


tombo82685

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This is a belated report (from about 3 pm), but I was out and about during the tail end of the last heavier band to go through here (at least the radar returns were heavy... the precip itself was not particularly heavy at all) and, as others have reported, there was, indeed, snow and the occasional sleet pellet mixed in with the rain.  After finishing my workout (I took a late lunch to go to the gym), the precip was back to a drizzle with nary a flake/pellet in sight.  Dare I say that was the last frozen precipitation I will see until next winter?    

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Mean gridded QPF can be a downright failure on the edge of any storm, esp. one with a sharp deformation zone. Kudos to Ekster for pointing out the potential for the precip shield to be too broad on the NW side.

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This was the last hour in Wildwood, NJ. Getting hammered by the winds. Coastal flooding and high winds the main threat.

 

KWWD 062055Z AUTO 03029G51KT 4SM OVC013 03/01 A2957 RMK AO1 P0008 60014 52024

I will agree with hammered! My peak gust has been 69mph@1:31pm. The wind has been nasty for sure. Temp. at 5:45pm 36. Max. for day 41.

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Cross-check on the 0Z GFS and NAM to see how they're doing... (Edit: Added EC)



Here's the forecasts for PHL:

6Z-12Z Wednesday morning
0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality
0.14" 0.14" 0.13" 0.02" EC wins by 0.01"

12Z-18Z Wednesday morning
0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality
0.46" 0.21" 0.18" 0.04" EC wins by 0.03"

18Z-0Z Wednesday afternoon
0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality
0.25" 0.12" 0.16" 0.05" GFS wins by 0.04"

0Z-6Z Wednesday evening
0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality
0.31" 0.03" 0.12"

6Z-12Z Thursday morning
0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality
0.15" 0.01" 0.05"




Here's the forecasts for DCA:

6Z-12Z Wednesday morning
0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality
0.65" 0.66" 0.48" 0.25" EC wins by a comparative landslide

12Z-18Z Wednesday morning
0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality
0.41" 0.63" 0.43" 0.55" GFS wins by 0.08

18Z-0Z Wednesday afternoon
0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality
0.44" 0.32" 0.16" 0.20" EC wins by 0.12"

0Z-6Z Wednesday evening
0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality
0.20" 0.01" 0.02"

6Z-12Z Thursday morning
0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality
0.02" 0.00" 0.00"



Here's the forecasts for NYC:

6Z-12Z Wednesday morning
0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality
0.00" 0.01" 0.00" 0.00" EC and NAM tie

12Z-18Z Wednesday morning
0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality
0.08" 0.05" 0.03" 0.00" EC wins

18Z-0Z Wednesday afternoon
0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality
0.27" 0.11" 0.06" 0.00" EC wins by 0.05"

0Z-6Z Wednesday evening
0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality
0.28" 0.10" 0.09"

6Z-12Z Thursday morning
0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality
0.32" 0.03" 0.12"



EC winning overall

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